Lately there’s been a lot of pretty understandable disappointment with how we’ve been playing. Particularly in our D and goaltending, and our inability to finish games despite frequently taking sizable leads. While I personally think it’s way too early and unfair to just lob this all at Lalonde, it’s his team and he needs to be the one leading the mindset shift even though he himself can’t stop pucks. Yzerman, my personal favorite sporting hero/leader of all time, also shoulders some serious questions based on our roster construct as well as who is working/not compared to expectations.
With that being said, I thought it would be a good end-of-year and mid-season perspective to look back on where and how we were projected before the season started. Below are a handful of completely unscientific sources looking at how we fit into the league’s overall purview before the games were played. Of course none of this factors in that we have Kane, just as it doesn’t factor in all sorts of other highly impactful injuries and circumstances to a lot of teams.
But IMO, the perspective is invaluable to help us with expectations going forward. As we stand today, we’re on pace for 87pts, which is smack dab where most had us projected (maybe even a couple of points ahead of it), and right on the edge of the playoffs. Will come back with some chatter after the predictions:
Source | Pts | Standings | Playoffs | Notes
—|—|—-|—-|—
[Dom](https://theathletic.com/4938709/2023/12/24/nhl-playoffs-chances-projected-standings-chart/?access_token=143351&redirected=1) | 83 (pre), 86 (Today) | 7th (Pre), 5th (Today) | 10% (Pre), 12% (Today) | Prior to yesterday’s NJD Game, we were at 87pts/19% projection, so you can see how much potential there still is for things to swing in the models.
[Athletic Staff](https://theathletic.com/4937676/2023/10/10/nhl-season-predictions-2023-24/) (Mixed Collection) | 81-85avg | 7th | Miss | A mish-mash, with consensus predictions of 81-85pts and near unanimous 7th place finish. While there’s not really a single collective prediction from all staff, none of the many conversations really included anything notable about Detroit, other than they expect OTT and BUF to make bigger strides.
[THN](https://thehockeynews.com/news/nhl-team-projections-ranking-each-division-and-gathering-reactions\)) | N/A | [7th](https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/detroit-red-wings/analysis/detroit-red-wings-2023-24-projection-three-keys-to-the-season-and-worst-case-scenario) | Miss | Most of the projections came form Rachel Dorrie’s predictive model. Familiar note in narrative was that the most likely case was that we improve but still struggle to be a playoff team bc the division is tough as is the east overall (consistent perspective with other assessments, really). Which is exactly what’s been happening.
[Sportsnet](https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/nhl-power-rankings-whos-rising-and-falling-heading-into-2023-24/) | N/A | 25th OA, 7th Div | Miss | Improved but division is tough, yada yada. Notably basically [no recognition of any kind for us by SN Insiders](https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/sportsnet-nhl-insider-predictions-for-2023-24-season/) (again, not surprising in preseason as this was the case for most outlets).
[HockeyViz/MBM](https://hockeyviz.com/txt/preview2324) | 86 | 7th | 23% | A model just ever so slightly more favorable to us in terms of PO%, but still had us at 7th in division. Importantly called out the unpredictablility of age impacts to teams in the middle of the division.
[JFresh](https://www.reddit.com/r/DetroitRedWings/comments/153zngx/jfresh_analytic_algorithm_predicts_the_wings_take/) | 96 | 5th | WC | Ever controversial with their modeling, JFresh came out hot and, notably, exceptionally early in the offseason…July 19th) with an aggressive play for us. Love to see the confidence, though the notes offered around why aren’t really what are playing out (less chiarot = better, Walman/Seider dominate, ADB and Sprong will torch). Still, one of the only places that had us where our early season start projected.
[Evolving Hockey](https://evolving-hockey.com/blog/2023-2024-team-point-projections/) | 86 | 7th | 21.3% | Not much of note…slightly higher end projection but still in the range of most others.
[Wyshynski](https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/insider/story/_/id/38560072/nhl-2023-24-teams-standings-predictions-playoffs-bubble) | N/A | 7th | Miss | Not much here, just noting us in the OTT/BUF class, but a step behind.
[DataDrivenHockey](https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/16rv7tf/datadrivenhockey_nhl_standings_projections_and/) | 89 | 6th | 26.8% | Second most favorable predictions to JFresh.
[The Hockey Writers](https://thehockeywriters.com/the-hockey-writers-2023-24-nhl-season-predictions/) | N/A | 7th | Miss | Heads up for the misleading “points” in the article, just read the first two paragraphs before reacting. It’s a collection of ranked voting from a bunch of their writers, not a points forecast. You’ll see what’s actually vote-getting, not stats, but which for us in particular (89 voting points) is coincidentally close to what could resemble an actual standings projection.
WWP (u/Tredid, can you confirm?!)| 83-87 | 6th-7th | Miss | I’m going off memory on this one as I can’t listen to that podcast episode at the moment, but it was consistent with other forecasts.
[Bultman](https://theathletic.com/4938294/2023/10/09/red-wings-2023-24-season-lucas-raymond/) | 88pts | 7th | Miss | The link’s got some fun bold predictions from Max, but he specifically notes that he doesn’t think his standings forecast is bold at all.
Despite an an absolutely brutal run and some habits/tendencies that we need to address *realfuckinquickly*, we’re still about where we were expected to be. Interestingly, it’s the shit play from OTT and BUF that have them below us in the standings. I dont think there was any projection that had us (or any team) on pace for 87pts but a 5th place finish…to me this suggests the division has been tough but also there’s been a lot of underperformance floating around.
It’s a nice reminder that our early banking of points can help us through this slump, but also that we need to start more consistently righting the ship or the pace could fall to the wayside.
I’m not going to get deeply into advanced stats or anything, but a few quick notes:
* We were vastly overperforming our xG early in the season, which has regressed a bit as of late. But we do play a bit of an aggressive style off the puck that suggests we could keep that output at or above expected and not a “fluke.”
* We are way above our scoring projections from what little commentary I could find.
* Goaltending and Defense was often commented as an area to watch. Sadly, watching it lately reveals our worst fears.
* Our ES shot share has really tapered in recent weeks and needs to be better.
What other punditry or models did I omit that you’d like included? Also, be civil…we all have differing perspectives, but this is a great fanbase and great sub…let’s discuss and learn instead of lob blame! Holiday spirits, and what not…
LGRW
E: fixed a link
by bandofgypsies
2 Comments
> Despite an an absolutely brutal run and some habits/tendencies that we need to address realfuckinquickly, we’re still about where we were expected to be.
I guess what personally disappoints me is that these projections would make sense if we consistently played on par with that, or just outperformed it a bit before regressing to our mean. But the Wings seem to have crashed off a cliff in order to get back here.
Bruins broke the league wins record for a season and went out 1st round last year….projections mean nothing.