### Do the Sabres have a playoff push in them, or will their record playoff drought extend to another season?
– Sara Holland: After a disappointing first half of the season, I believe it’s highly unlikely that the Sabres will have what it takes to make a push toward the playoffs this season. To me, it comes down to their lack of offense (tied for 18th in goals per game this season with 2.98). On top of that, with Jack Quinn’s most recent injury sidelining him for eight weeks, I think the Sabres will be on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs.
– Jonah Bronstein: We can forecast continued drought conditions, with better than 90% confidence. (The Athletic’s model gives the Sabres a 3% chance to make the playoffs, while MoneyPuck gives them 7.4% odds.) Buffalo could win two out of every three games the rest of the way and still not come up with enough points to make the playoffs, needing to pass five other teams for the last wild-card spot in the East. Finishing at the same pace they did the past two years, 35 points over the final 33 games, would eliminate the Sabres before the final week of the season.
### What should the Sabres do at the trade deadline? Are they buyers or sellers?
– SH: The Sabres will head into the trade deadline as sellers, but not in a traditional way. They have six unrestricted free agents, but none are, in my opinion, major assets that playoff-contending teams need. In that sense, most teams looking to buy at the trade deadline prefer trading picks and prospects, which the Sabres have a ton of. I think general manager Kevyn Adams will wait until this offseason to make decisions regarding most of the UFAs on the team — but that’s not to say I wouldn’t like to see Adams step out of his comfort zone and go after a guy that could help contribute to the state of the team right away, even if it’s at the cost of a top prospect.
– JB: There is a definite need for a top-six winger after Jack Quinn’s recent injury, and GM Kevyn Adams should feel pressure to make a move for the sake of signaling to fans that the Sabres are making a playoff push. But with such a narrow path to the postseason, the Sabres will have to consider any offers they might receive for veteran players with expiring contracts, a group that includes points leader Casey Mittelstadt, captain Kyle Okposo, alternate Zemgus Girgensons, Victor Olofsson, and Erik Johnson.
### Who impressed you the most in the first half?
– SH: My first-half MVP is 100% JJ Peterka. Peterka has already surpassed his goal total from last season. In 77 games played last year, Peterka scored just 12 goals, and this season he’s leading the team with 18 goals on the year in just 49 games played. I think this stat paints the picture of the impact Peterka has made this season perfectly: According to Sportlogiq, last season Peterka generated the fifth-most scoring chances off the rush (0.65 per game); this season, he’s jumped all the way to the top, generating the most scoring chances off the rush (0.98 per game). He’s grown so much since last year and has shown what potential he has as a top 6 forward.
– JB: Mittelstadt has been Buffalo’s best player in his contract year, leading the Sabres with 42 points, 30 assists and a plus-9 rating. He’s played up and down the lineup, and a number of wingers have been at their best with Mittelstadt at center. So far, Mittelstadt is one of three Sabres who have dressed for every game, notable for a player who battled injuries earlier in his career. JJ Peterka, the other forward who has skated every night, leads the Sabres with 18 goals (17 at even strength), a rather unsung achievement for a 22-year-old.
### Who (or what) do the Sabres need more from in the second half of the season?
– SH: The Sabres need more from their star players — specifically, from their top two centers. Both Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens have had a down season. Last year, the two combined for 78 goals; this season, they’ve combined for just 24. When the team can’t rely on their top stars to put points on the board, the offense suffers. That’s been the killer so far this season.
– JB: Their All-Stars, especially on the power play. Rasmus Dahlin (minus-12) and Tage Thompson (minus-10) have the worst ratings on the team. While plus/minus is an imperfect measure, every other Sabres defenseman is on the plus side, and Dahlin was plus-12 last season. Thompson, who has battled injuries, was plus-15 before the All-Star break a year ago. He has scored three goals on power plays, down from 14 through 49 games last season. Former Sabre and first-time All-Star Sam Reinhart has as many power-play goals (20) as the club that drafted him. Buffalo scored on 44 power plays in the first 49 games a year ago, more or less accounting for the Sabres’ overall drop in goal production.
HarvesternC
They will probably spin their wheels for a few more seasons, maybe one of those years they finally find a way to sneak into the playoffs. I just think when you put all your hope into young pieces you drafted, there is a potential some won’t work out. They should have pursued some veterans and start building a real team last summer coming off a promising year. Now, thst will be harder to do after this season, if they even bother to try.
PhilTheBin
“Will they be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline”
Wellll ya see being either of those things would require a GM who isn’t uselessly sitting on his hands. GMKA will do absolutely nothing, I promise. The team will roll into next season with largely the same lineup and prospect pool. He will sign some bum at the end of their career for a “veteran presence” and the drought will continue.
The-Real-Larry
Where do we go from here now that all of the children are growin’ up?
dumpmaster42069
Just remember what the canucks looked like latest year. The team has the skills, but the headspace needs to change.
Gengreat_the_Gar
I’ve unfortunately gotten to the “who cares” point with this team. It’s such a shame, it finally felt like we had turned a corner last season.
bustthelease
Pathway forward:
Trade for assets: Olofsson, Girgensons, E Johnson, Bryson, Comrie, etc
New coach: the team needs a new veteran voice
4th line/ hard to play against: add 2 Eric Johnson type guys
Goalie: 2 young guy path is risky. They probably believe in Levi despite UPL season. Maybe package UPL to Calgary for Markstrom. Go with a Markstrom/Levi combo
Vet Shut Down D: would love a Tanev type player on a short term
Decision: need to decide plan with Mittelstadt. He’s valuable and could return a great player.
7 Comments
### Do the Sabres have a playoff push in them, or will their record playoff drought extend to another season?
– Sara Holland: After a disappointing first half of the season, I believe it’s highly unlikely that the Sabres will have what it takes to make a push toward the playoffs this season. To me, it comes down to their lack of offense (tied for 18th in goals per game this season with 2.98). On top of that, with Jack Quinn’s most recent injury sidelining him for eight weeks, I think the Sabres will be on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs.
– Jonah Bronstein: We can forecast continued drought conditions, with better than 90% confidence. (The Athletic’s model gives the Sabres a 3% chance to make the playoffs, while MoneyPuck gives them 7.4% odds.) Buffalo could win two out of every three games the rest of the way and still not come up with enough points to make the playoffs, needing to pass five other teams for the last wild-card spot in the East. Finishing at the same pace they did the past two years, 35 points over the final 33 games, would eliminate the Sabres before the final week of the season.
### What should the Sabres do at the trade deadline? Are they buyers or sellers?
– SH: The Sabres will head into the trade deadline as sellers, but not in a traditional way. They have six unrestricted free agents, but none are, in my opinion, major assets that playoff-contending teams need. In that sense, most teams looking to buy at the trade deadline prefer trading picks and prospects, which the Sabres have a ton of. I think general manager Kevyn Adams will wait until this offseason to make decisions regarding most of the UFAs on the team — but that’s not to say I wouldn’t like to see Adams step out of his comfort zone and go after a guy that could help contribute to the state of the team right away, even if it’s at the cost of a top prospect.
– JB: There is a definite need for a top-six winger after Jack Quinn’s recent injury, and GM Kevyn Adams should feel pressure to make a move for the sake of signaling to fans that the Sabres are making a playoff push. But with such a narrow path to the postseason, the Sabres will have to consider any offers they might receive for veteran players with expiring contracts, a group that includes points leader Casey Mittelstadt, captain Kyle Okposo, alternate Zemgus Girgensons, Victor Olofsson, and Erik Johnson.
### Who impressed you the most in the first half?
– SH: My first-half MVP is 100% JJ Peterka. Peterka has already surpassed his goal total from last season. In 77 games played last year, Peterka scored just 12 goals, and this season he’s leading the team with 18 goals on the year in just 49 games played. I think this stat paints the picture of the impact Peterka has made this season perfectly: According to Sportlogiq, last season Peterka generated the fifth-most scoring chances off the rush (0.65 per game); this season, he’s jumped all the way to the top, generating the most scoring chances off the rush (0.98 per game). He’s grown so much since last year and has shown what potential he has as a top 6 forward.
– JB: Mittelstadt has been Buffalo’s best player in his contract year, leading the Sabres with 42 points, 30 assists and a plus-9 rating. He’s played up and down the lineup, and a number of wingers have been at their best with Mittelstadt at center. So far, Mittelstadt is one of three Sabres who have dressed for every game, notable for a player who battled injuries earlier in his career. JJ Peterka, the other forward who has skated every night, leads the Sabres with 18 goals (17 at even strength), a rather unsung achievement for a 22-year-old.
### Who (or what) do the Sabres need more from in the second half of the season?
– SH: The Sabres need more from their star players — specifically, from their top two centers. Both Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens have had a down season. Last year, the two combined for 78 goals; this season, they’ve combined for just 24. When the team can’t rely on their top stars to put points on the board, the offense suffers. That’s been the killer so far this season.
– JB: Their All-Stars, especially on the power play. Rasmus Dahlin (minus-12) and Tage Thompson (minus-10) have the worst ratings on the team. While plus/minus is an imperfect measure, every other Sabres defenseman is on the plus side, and Dahlin was plus-12 last season. Thompson, who has battled injuries, was plus-15 before the All-Star break a year ago. He has scored three goals on power plays, down from 14 through 49 games last season. Former Sabre and first-time All-Star Sam Reinhart has as many power-play goals (20) as the club that drafted him. Buffalo scored on 44 power plays in the first 49 games a year ago, more or less accounting for the Sabres’ overall drop in goal production.
They will probably spin their wheels for a few more seasons, maybe one of those years they finally find a way to sneak into the playoffs. I just think when you put all your hope into young pieces you drafted, there is a potential some won’t work out. They should have pursued some veterans and start building a real team last summer coming off a promising year. Now, thst will be harder to do after this season, if they even bother to try.
“Will they be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline”
Wellll ya see being either of those things would require a GM who isn’t uselessly sitting on his hands. GMKA will do absolutely nothing, I promise. The team will roll into next season with largely the same lineup and prospect pool. He will sign some bum at the end of their career for a “veteran presence” and the drought will continue.
Where do we go from here now that all of the children are growin’ up?
Just remember what the canucks looked like latest year. The team has the skills, but the headspace needs to change.
I’ve unfortunately gotten to the “who cares” point with this team. It’s such a shame, it finally felt like we had turned a corner last season.
Pathway forward:
Trade for assets: Olofsson, Girgensons, E Johnson, Bryson, Comrie, etc
New coach: the team needs a new veteran voice
4th line/ hard to play against: add 2 Eric Johnson type guys
Goalie: 2 young guy path is risky. They probably believe in Levi despite UPL season. Maybe package UPL to Calgary for Markstrom. Go with a Markstrom/Levi combo
Vet Shut Down D: would love a Tanev type player on a short term
Decision: need to decide plan with Mittelstadt. He’s valuable and could return a great player.