There’s one true top-pair defenseman available at this year’s deadline and that’s Noah Hanifin. He’s a jack-of-all-trades type — a player who does most things well. He may not have many significant weaknesses, but he’s also a master of no domain.
• Putting up points? Pretty good, but not elite. • Creating chances in the offensive zone? Pretty good, but not elite. • Rushing up the ice? Pretty good, but not elite. • Defending his blue line? Pretty good, but not elite. • Exiting the zone? Pretty good, but not elite. • Shutting down top lines? Pretty good, but not elite.
As far as top defensemen go, Hanifin is about as insipid as it gets. Not offensive in any respect, but hardly inspiring either. You wonder whether he can be a true No. 1 defenseman and then realize there may not be 32 better defensemen. There’s a lot of value in what he brings to the table as a minutes-eater who quietly gets the job done in all three zones amid difficult usage.
That also means the cost will likely be exorbitant as the only player of his ilk available. Hanifin is the type of player who can really move a team up a tier at this deadline and that’s going to cost a whole lot.
### Jakob Chychrun
There aren’t many players who are more difficult to get a proper read on than Jakob Chychrun. When we did our Player Tiers project before the season started there were a lot of skeptics around the league regarding his reputation as a true top-pair defenseman.
He grades out that way according to Net Rating, but that’s partly due to the numbers he puts on the board. He has a booming shot and can command the puck well in the offensive zone, enough to be a consistent 50-point threat … if he could ever string a full season together.
What’s a bit more dubious is whether or not he can drive play to the degree warranted of a top-pair defenseman. His impacts relative to teammates are usually positive, but he’s also a player who’s often been hidden from tough matchups. That was an interesting part of Arizona’s sell job on him in his prior two seasons where he was consistently deployed in a third-pair role. The old pump-and-dump scheme.
Last year, the sheltered usage had Chychrun looking like an elite puck-mover who transports pucks well from the defensive zone to the offensive zone, elite at exiting the zone and entering the opponents’ zone with control. He also looked great at defending his own line, too. Things couldn’t be more different this year with Ottawa as he moved up to a top-four role. While his results relative to teammates look positive, his tracked data looks pretty bleak.
He’s not rushing up ice anymore, he’s struggling heavily to retrieve pucks and break them out, and he’s not defending the rush well either. Chychrun is a worthy get if he can be the guy on the left and translate that possession-driving ability to a top-four role. But the risk that a team pays a lot to get the guy on the right is very high.
Some question his low Defensive Rating being a product of poor goals-against numbers that may not truly reflect his own defensive prowess. But given how many retrievals he botches and how many exits fail on his stick, it’s certainly possible that his carelessness with the puck in his own zone is leading to an inflated goals-against rate. That he’s been a turnstile defending the rush probably doesn’t help.
I’m not sure what to make of Chychrun’s true ability. The model likes him fine and he is a strong offensive defenseman. But given how poor his tracked data looks this season and his lengthy injury history, there may be too many red flags here to make the high price of acquisition worth it.
### Chris Tanev
The belle of the defenseman’s ball: A rugged stopper who can move the puck well in a difficult role. That’s hard to do and hard to find — it’s what makes Chris Tanev so coveted this deadline. He is the ideal No. 3 on a contender: Someone who grades out as a top-pair defenseman with a slant toward defensive value. His projected Defensive Rating of plus-3.7 ranks 12th among defensemen and he’d be the perfect partner for an offensively inclined No. 1 defenseman.
What helps Tanev be one of the league’s best defensive defensemen is that he knows how to get the puck in his zone and he knows how to get it out — with control. Few defenders retrieve pucks like him, and he turns that into a controlled exit at an elite rate. Despite a heavy workload, he exits the zone with control 67 percent of the time, nearly 20 points above league average.
That being said, there is a slight risk involved in Tanev. At his age with his play style, there’s a chance of decline that has already come to fruition to an extent this season. While he’s still great at breaking the puck out, his efficiency has taken a step back this season. That’s led to a decrease in his Defensive Rating from a plus-6.4 pace last season to plus-3.1 this season. Perhaps a little more troubling is that he is starting to venture toward “one-dimensional” territory. He used to be at least average at driving offense, but this year has seen his efficacy drop.
That could change in the right situation with the right partner. There are a lot of good fits for Tanev out there where he could really solidify a team’s blue line. He’s a hot commodity for good reason.
### Sean Walker
What a difference a year makes. Sean Walker was a cap casualty to start the season. Now he’s a difference-maker for the surprising Flyers. Walker has done really well in second-pair minutes for the Flyers this season, earning 55 percent of the expected and actual goals — both well above team average. Both numbers are right there among the team’s leaders and he’s been excellent on Philadelphia’s penalty kill, too.
Part of the reason the Flyers have shocked the hockey world this season is due to their rush-based attack — something Walker is a pivotal part of. He joins and leads the rush at a highly efficient rate, entering the zone with control 65 percent of the time. Some top-end forwards don’t hit that mark. He’s been solid at defending entries of his own and breaking the puck out, but it’s his ability to join the attack that stands out. It’s likely why his on-ice numbers skew toward offense despite not being much of a scorer himself. It is worth noting he’s been no slouch defensively and his impact on the penalty kill has also been terrific.
The big question with Walker is whether this is for real or not. It’s not uncommon for a defenseman to show his worth and prove he belongs in a top four, especially when paired with a savvy coach. But the sudden trajectory shift does give pause. So too does his size which leans toward the smaller end. That might make him more suitable for a contending team’s third pair with potential for more if he can keep his current play up in a new locale.
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### Kaapo Kakko
There are a lot of people who are out on Kaapo Kakko. I’m not one of them. Last year he scored 40 points with a solid 1.73 points-per-60 rate at five-on-five. He’s consistently one of the strongest play-drivers on the Rangers who does really well defensively. It does feel like he needs a change of scenery, but at 22, there’s still a lot of time to fulfill his potential — even if he doesn’t look the part at the moment.
### Warren Foegele
It’s a bit surprising to see Warren Foegele on the block given how effective he’s been for the Oilers this season. He’s stepped up into the top six and delivered, scoring 2.49 points per 60 while helping to drive play at an elite rate. Sure, playing with Leon Draisaitl plays a huge role there, but Foegele is no passenger.
He showed that last season with strong on-ice numbers on Edmonton’s checking line and is showing it this year with how efficient he’s been in transition. Foegele’s profile looks fairly well-rounded with above-average numbers across the board. He can retrieve pucks at both ends of the ice, he can move it up ice with control, and he can create chances in the offensive zone. He’s graded as an average forward and would be the perfect fit for a lot of middle sixes. He does the hard work so stars don’t have to. A poor man’s Zach Hyman.
### Alex Wennberg
I’m not big on Alex Wennberg, but that’s mostly because of how he’s used in Seattle. In each of the last two seasons, he’s been the Kraken’s most-used forward, all while earning some of the worst results on the team and scoring at a third-line rate. Wennberg has a lot of defensive upside for how involved he is in getting the puck out of his own zone and how much he’s trusted against top competition. That makes him an attractive option as a middle-six center with playmaking upside — as long as teams understand that’s much closer to what he is than the guy who plays over 18 minutes per night.
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### Noah Hanifin
There’s one true top-pair defenseman available at this year’s deadline and that’s Noah Hanifin. He’s a jack-of-all-trades type — a player who does most things well. He may not have many significant weaknesses, but he’s also a master of no domain.
• Putting up points? Pretty good, but not elite.
• Creating chances in the offensive zone? Pretty good, but not elite.
• Rushing up the ice? Pretty good, but not elite.
• Defending his blue line? Pretty good, but not elite.
• Exiting the zone? Pretty good, but not elite.
• Shutting down top lines? Pretty good, but not elite.
As far as top defensemen go, Hanifin is about as insipid as it gets. Not offensive in any respect, but hardly inspiring either. You wonder whether he can be a true No. 1 defenseman and then realize there may not be 32 better defensemen. There’s a lot of value in what he brings to the table as a minutes-eater who quietly gets the job done in all three zones amid difficult usage.
That also means the cost will likely be exorbitant as the only player of his ilk available. Hanifin is the type of player who can really move a team up a tier at this deadline and that’s going to cost a whole lot.
### Jakob Chychrun
There aren’t many players who are more difficult to get a proper read on than Jakob Chychrun. When we did our Player Tiers project before the season started there were a lot of skeptics around the league regarding his reputation as a true top-pair defenseman.
He grades out that way according to Net Rating, but that’s partly due to the numbers he puts on the board. He has a booming shot and can command the puck well in the offensive zone, enough to be a consistent 50-point threat … if he could ever string a full season together.
What’s a bit more dubious is whether or not he can drive play to the degree warranted of a top-pair defenseman. His impacts relative to teammates are usually positive, but he’s also a player who’s often been hidden from tough matchups. That was an interesting part of Arizona’s sell job on him in his prior two seasons where he was consistently deployed in a third-pair role. The old pump-and-dump scheme.
Last year, the sheltered usage had Chychrun looking like an elite puck-mover who transports pucks well from the defensive zone to the offensive zone, elite at exiting the zone and entering the opponents’ zone with control. He also looked great at defending his own line, too. Things couldn’t be more different this year with Ottawa as he moved up to a top-four role. While his results relative to teammates look positive, his tracked data looks pretty bleak.
He’s not rushing up ice anymore, he’s struggling heavily to retrieve pucks and break them out, and he’s not defending the rush well either. Chychrun is a worthy get if he can be the guy on the left and translate that possession-driving ability to a top-four role. But the risk that a team pays a lot to get the guy on the right is very high.
Some question his low Defensive Rating being a product of poor goals-against numbers that may not truly reflect his own defensive prowess. But given how many retrievals he botches and how many exits fail on his stick, it’s certainly possible that his carelessness with the puck in his own zone is leading to an inflated goals-against rate. That he’s been a turnstile defending the rush probably doesn’t help.
I’m not sure what to make of Chychrun’s true ability. The model likes him fine and he is a strong offensive defenseman. But given how poor his tracked data looks this season and his lengthy injury history, there may be too many red flags here to make the high price of acquisition worth it.
### Chris Tanev
The belle of the defenseman’s ball: A rugged stopper who can move the puck well in a difficult role. That’s hard to do and hard to find — it’s what makes Chris Tanev so coveted this deadline. He is the ideal No. 3 on a contender: Someone who grades out as a top-pair defenseman with a slant toward defensive value. His projected Defensive Rating of plus-3.7 ranks 12th among defensemen and he’d be the perfect partner for an offensively inclined No. 1 defenseman.
What helps Tanev be one of the league’s best defensive defensemen is that he knows how to get the puck in his zone and he knows how to get it out — with control. Few defenders retrieve pucks like him, and he turns that into a controlled exit at an elite rate. Despite a heavy workload, he exits the zone with control 67 percent of the time, nearly 20 points above league average.
That being said, there is a slight risk involved in Tanev. At his age with his play style, there’s a chance of decline that has already come to fruition to an extent this season. While he’s still great at breaking the puck out, his efficiency has taken a step back this season. That’s led to a decrease in his Defensive Rating from a plus-6.4 pace last season to plus-3.1 this season. Perhaps a little more troubling is that he is starting to venture toward “one-dimensional” territory. He used to be at least average at driving offense, but this year has seen his efficacy drop.
That could change in the right situation with the right partner. There are a lot of good fits for Tanev out there where he could really solidify a team’s blue line. He’s a hot commodity for good reason.
### Sean Walker
What a difference a year makes. Sean Walker was a cap casualty to start the season. Now he’s a difference-maker for the surprising Flyers. Walker has done really well in second-pair minutes for the Flyers this season, earning 55 percent of the expected and actual goals — both well above team average. Both numbers are right there among the team’s leaders and he’s been excellent on Philadelphia’s penalty kill, too.
Part of the reason the Flyers have shocked the hockey world this season is due to their rush-based attack — something Walker is a pivotal part of. He joins and leads the rush at a highly efficient rate, entering the zone with control 65 percent of the time. Some top-end forwards don’t hit that mark. He’s been solid at defending entries of his own and breaking the puck out, but it’s his ability to join the attack that stands out. It’s likely why his on-ice numbers skew toward offense despite not being much of a scorer himself. It is worth noting he’s been no slouch defensively and his impact on the penalty kill has also been terrific.
The big question with Walker is whether this is for real or not. It’s not uncommon for a defenseman to show his worth and prove he belongs in a top four, especially when paired with a savvy coach. But the sudden trajectory shift does give pause. So too does his size which leans toward the smaller end. That might make him more suitable for a contending team’s third pair with potential for more if he can keep his current play up in a new locale.
——
### Kaapo Kakko
There are a lot of people who are out on Kaapo Kakko. I’m not one of them. Last year he scored 40 points with a solid 1.73 points-per-60 rate at five-on-five. He’s consistently one of the strongest play-drivers on the Rangers who does really well defensively. It does feel like he needs a change of scenery, but at 22, there’s still a lot of time to fulfill his potential — even if he doesn’t look the part at the moment.
### Warren Foegele
It’s a bit surprising to see Warren Foegele on the block given how effective he’s been for the Oilers this season. He’s stepped up into the top six and delivered, scoring 2.49 points per 60 while helping to drive play at an elite rate. Sure, playing with Leon Draisaitl plays a huge role there, but Foegele is no passenger.
He showed that last season with strong on-ice numbers on Edmonton’s checking line and is showing it this year with how efficient he’s been in transition. Foegele’s profile looks fairly well-rounded with above-average numbers across the board. He can retrieve pucks at both ends of the ice, he can move it up ice with control, and he can create chances in the offensive zone. He’s graded as an average forward and would be the perfect fit for a lot of middle sixes. He does the hard work so stars don’t have to. A poor man’s Zach Hyman.
### Alex Wennberg
I’m not big on Alex Wennberg, but that’s mostly because of how he’s used in Seattle. In each of the last two seasons, he’s been the Kraken’s most-used forward, all while earning some of the worst results on the team and scoring at a third-line rate. Wennberg has a lot of defensive upside for how involved he is in getting the puck out of his own zone and how much he’s trusted against top competition. That makes him an attractive option as a middle-six center with playmaking upside — as long as teams understand that’s much closer to what he is than the guy who plays over 18 minutes per night.