2024 Team Previews: Diamondbacks, Padres & Giants

2024 Team Previews: Diamondbacks, Padres & Giants

Welcome to rates and barrels Monday February 12th Derek van rer enois here with you with another team preview edition of the podcast we’re going to move through most of the NL West today we quickly discarded the Rockies last week so they are out of the way we’re

Going to focus on the meat in the NL West sandwich the three teams that will likely be in the middle that of course would include the defending national league Champion Diamondbacks the Giants and the Padres so three fun teams to look at I think you can make of them

What you wish really you could talk yourself into these teams being playoff teams you could talk yourself into 10 games below 500 and I think you could have a pretty fun conversation either way yeah yeah uh this is the uh Lottery this is what is the dice roll section of the the

Division uh I do have more confidence in one of these teams than the other two though well let’s start with the defending Champion is that is it the Arizona Diamondbacks will play guess who is that the team you feel better about projections like them better yeah yeah I

Mean clearly projected for number two in the NL West right and are they oh in the NL West I thought you said NL for a second no yeah no I mean you don’t you come off the recency bias of like them being in the in the World Series and you

Know you might think that they’re a better team than they actually are so I think they’re a pretty good team I don’t think that I would say that they’re a favorite to get back to the World Series yeah I think that’s very fair offseason addition so far really one particularly

Big one with Yano Suarez just given how much they struggled to get production from their rotation at third base last season so so that’s a pretty big boost for them just from from that perspective they retained lordes guel Jr so they didn’t have to go out and find a

Replacement for him it’s it’s a similar group of hitters to what we saw last year but there’s a couple things that I like that could actually change big time and the biggest one is Jordan Lawler right Jordan Lawler could give them an upgrade over Heraldo Perdomo who ended

Up having a better year than most people would have expected last year but still by way of weak contact just looks like a utility player to me he looks like someone you’d move around for his glove put him in the bottom third of the order just let whatever happen happens no

Problem with like that kind of profile in that sort of role he doesn’t look like an everyday shortstop in today’s game and Jordan Lawler does have those attributes so when you see projections for Lawler got the bad X up on the screen right now over on YouTube you see

Power you see speed you only see 353 played appearance but there’s a chance that Lawler wins this job very soon and once he takes that job he should be the primary short stop for the foreseeable future yeah he had a shoulder injury that seems almost like it’s catching in

The Arizona minor leagues uh he hurt himself swinging on his shoulder just the same way Corbin Carroll and top pick Drew Jones the the son of Andrew Jones have hurt themselves in similar manners so I don’t know what is going on with that um but uh it’d be really fasinating

To find out that like they were all doing weighted bats or something but I haven’t heard anything like that and Corbin Carrol himself told me he did not do weighted bats um very specifically so let’s not start a rumor uh that weighted bats cause shoulder injuries but one

Thing that I’ve seen um from Lawler is that post shoulder injury y the power has been a little bit suspect and I just don’t know I don’t know enough like doctor wise to declare him fully fit I don’t and from like sort of a stout in the

Scat line scat line uh scouting The Scouting the stat line um I don’t see great hard hit rates in the majors uh or in Triple A and yeah the sample is only 114 play appearances but he hasn’t hit a ball over 10.6 and he hit the ball hard over 95

Milph less than a third of the time in those 114 plate appearances combined so it wasn’t a great um 2023 in terms of batted ball oomph uh but everything else looks pretty good yeah we saw improving plate skills over the course of his time at daa and what he did at that level

Last year came with a really slow start I mean he wasn’t n healthy at the beginning of the Season that seemed to slow him down quite a bit Jordan Lawler I would say also because he’s so young the batted ball quality the contact quality could still improve the doors

Definitely open for something like that but a familiar cast characters up and down the lineup Corbin Carroll is the star here it’s power its speed I saw in the baseball forecaster I think aunia light was the suggestion because even if you don’t see another level of power

Coming from Corbin Carroll he’s one of the most fun players in the league to watch run the bases it’s not even just stolen bases it’s just lightning speed all the time and last season Corbin Carroll was 54 for 59 on the base path so even if the power doesn’t take up

Another level that is a ridiculous combination to have with you 20 home run pop the ability to hit the ball to all Fields a sub 20% K rate and we’re talking about a guy who just turned 23 back in August yeah you know where Lawler kind of floats floats around 50%

Ground balls uh Corbin Carroll does not have that problem he can lift the ball he has a nice sweet Line Drive approach um really cut his strikeout rate in his second attempt of the league and uh with that whiff rate seems to be sustainable with this above average contact rate

Above average walk rate Elite Speed um and I think maybe a little bit of developing power I mean he hit the ball 113.8k uh 25 homers so I I could see a peak season where he hits 30 I think he he settles in at sort of 20 to 25 most

Seasons uh it’s hard to tell when that Peak season’s gonna come though he’s 23 uh he he you know he’s seen the league he might have one more adjustment in him you know this year this coming year and and set the world on fire and and get an

MVP I mean that’s that’s how good he is yeah and I think the quality of the contact for Corbin Carroll coming off of his 2022 debut is something we talked about on the show show I just brought it up as more of a question as opposed to

Something that would you know bury him from becoming an early round player when we saw him debut his max was a 107.5 the barrel rate was only 5 and a half percent the hard hit was 32.9% not the numbers we’re looking for right like it’s just proof that the

Small sample especially can be a little bit misleading yeah it’s instructive for our Jordan Lawler conversation for sure yes Lawler very similar to what Lawler was did last year this this past season yeah you at where Lawler goes in redraft leagues right now typically outside the

Top 300 overall with a Big Spring he could certainly move up we talked about you know short stop at our position preview really kind of tapering off somewhere around that pick 200 range you kind of draw the line with a Zack Netto or a Carlos Cara usually in in your

Leagues lawers after those guys as long as he has a job he could sort of move up and possibly join the back of that range yeah I I tend to want to buy plate appearances that deep in a draft and so that’s why I haven’t made made that jump

But if you’re in like a 12 team Dynasty league and Lawler seems like he’s um someone you could buy you know uh if you’re in a keeper League where there’s an opportunity to buy like I might I might do that we talked about it as a news item

Recently bless you ex Jack Peterson joining the Diamondbacks lineup as a regular DH bigs side platoon DH is the clear role at this point barring something unforeseen some kind of Renaissance defensively not a big deal because the Diamond Back have a few quality defensive options they can play

Out there they don’t need to just force the issue uh we saw Alec Thomas start to play a lot better in the post season last year Gabrielle Mareno looks like someone that could still take a step forward at the plate so they’ve got a few young guys that could get better in

This Core group of position players they’ve got the possible star in Lawler on the way they have the young star already on the roster in Carroll and they’ve got a few veterans like Suarez and Christian Walker and katel Marte that really it’s just about health with

Those guys for the most part I mean I think Suarez of the three it’s reflected in his Draft Day price he’s the most risky because the swing and Miss continues to build up in his profile but you look at Marte and and Walker is two guys that should hit right up close to

Those projections based on the consistency we’ve seen from them on a per game basis yeah and the the uh the team from a team building standpoint I really like what they’ve done because if you look at strikeout rate last year Arizona had the fourth best strikeout rate as a team if

You look at defense they were a top 10 team by defense so uh then you look at isolated power and there they were 19th so what do you do with a team that uh defends well has young players all over um you know makes a lot of contact and

Needs power you add you hoo Suarez and jock Peterson I mean it seems like a pretty awesome way to go about business especially since those types of players are cheaper on the market and so they come from a better place than say remember when the Marlins were like we

Want to make more contact well they went and got Aras but they still struck out a lot you know because it’s a whole team you’re talking about so in this case the Arizona had a really good foundation team wise and they could just add a couple players

That strike out too much but hit hit dongs and mostly they don’t hurt you defensively especially with jock being a DH right if your strength was defense and you had to play Jack Peterson in the Outfield that’d be pretty different interesting the Diamond Backs for all the things that went right last year

Third from the bottom League wide in Barrel rate 6.2% Barrel rate so Falls right in line with that ISO stat you threw out there where they just need to get to more power more consistently with this uh this lineup and I think they made the right adjustments over the

Course of the off season let’s shift the focus over to the pitching a key addition of course with Eduardo Rodriguez going there in free agency projections are not real kind the pp ER projection has Rod up at a 4 472 ER so definitely some concerns there that

Maybe what we saw in Detroit is not necessarily what we’re going to get throughout this time in Arizona from him but you got gallon at the top of the rotation he looks like at least a high quality Frontline guy Merill Kelly with all the pitches all the adjustments he’s

Been making performed really well we’ve talked about Brandon fought a lot on this show the stop the top four is good right it’s not great but it’s good and I think the key is going to be getting a little bit more of the second half version of fought over an entire season

If they’re going to kind of hold their position remain a playoff Threat all season long I think part of that story is Brandon fought pitching very well yeah I think it’s completely possible that my model misses on a few of these pitchers uh you know from the perspective of what does Zach Gallen

Have and what does he need to pitch well he’s got a wide Arsenal he’s got command he’s got stuff uh he’s got demonstrated results he’s been one of the top 10 pitchers in the league the last two years in a row I’m a little surprised that the model you know spit out this

390 erra for Zack gallon um and I don’t really know why um but I do know why it doesn’t love Marl Kelly and wild Rodriguez as much because they don’t have as as good enough stuff um but it’s possible that pitchers with a ton of different pitches and with change UPS um

Outperform the model a little bit just because of interactive effects where they have more different options more different things they can tunnel more different you know ways that they can keep the batter on their you know guessing basically uh when it comes to their Arsenal what’s going to come um

And Brandon fought for what’s worth uh does have a fair amount of breakout potential because he comes from a place where he had stuff but was struggling to put it together through started throwing a sinker in the postseason and I think that now gives him that interactive

Effect where now he can go he can be a sinker slider guy he can be a for seam change guy he’s got a couple different looks he can throw at you I still worry about him versus lefties but he showed that he can be dominant against righties and survive against lefties and there

Are plenty of pitchers in the big leagues who do that so plenty to like and a clear path to be that number four starter because the questions right now for this group are kind of around the number five spot Ryan Nelson who we really like going into last season uh

Just didn’t put it all together he might be the favorite Tommy Henry slay Chone other options in tow I’m curious like Why didn’t it work for Ryan Nelson this is a guy that was a reliever during his time in college got pretty good results moving through the Diamondback system as a starter looked

Pretty good at the end of 2022 in a limited run as well and what kinds of adjustments do you think he could make if he is going to secure that number five starter spot and have a little more success in 2024 well one thing that happened has

Was totally out of his control was that we updated our our model and um it wasn’t uh it didn’t go so well for him um but on top of that is just some of there are some movement changes as well and his forcing fast ball had two

Inches less ride this this past season that it did the Pres season before and it also um you know his other pitches had less drop so in general his pitches did lose some stuff and some spin between 2022 and 2023 so there’s that but then there’s also the model reboot

Which suggests that uh the foreen fast ball is below average the curve balls below average the change up is pretty bad um but you could just call it below average I guess the cutter is around average and the slider is his best pitch but he throws it less often than the

Cutter and the change up so uh there could be a way forward for him where he just throws a slider more and more um you know that’s an opportunity for him the cutter and change are close enough to average I think that he can do something with them maybe he just turfs

The curveball completely and uh changes you know just optimizes his existing mix it’s nice that he has those pitches but he’s so for fastball dependent he throws it so much that that’s my main thing that I just keep shouting on the screen when I see him is I don’t think that

Forcing fastball is good enough he’s not like a Taj Bradley or a Bryce Miller where he can just keep throwing that foring fast ball over and over again and expect to get good results so I think he needs to figure out a way to trust these other pitches if you’re watching him in

Spring watch his pitch mies I just also don’t think that the other guys are that good so I don’t think he’s got much competition yeah it’s one of those strange things as good as this system is they’ve graduated a lot of the pitches they have and it

Doesn’t look like there’s really a lot of help coming internally from the group of pitching prospects they currently have in the organization so maybe it’s a very late spring training signing maybe there’s something else in the works uh that’s going to be kind of something to

Watch as far as job battles go over the course of spring training though I would say you’re right Nelson probably is the favorite at this point quickly looking at the relievers the acquisition of Paul Seawall the traded line last year was huge because they have him this year as

Well this was a clear area that needed to be upgraded Mike Hazen and Company did that if we talked about seaw Wald in the closer preview seems like he’s kind of clearly in that second tier of of closers but one that we generally trust the hold on to this job throughout the

Season yeah the only thing that worried me was something that you saw maybe in the postseason which was just that the you know the more often that people see him in a short series it seemed like the better they got at seeing him and I I just wonder if there’s certain

Types of movement or funkiness or deception that you know are subject to this and then how does that work out over a full season because he did just get traded out of a division he was in uh to a new division so you know maybe the Dodgers haven’t seen them that much

And so maybe it’ll work for a season or two but you know is there a chance that the the first time he sees the Dodgers in in April it’s fine and then when he sees them again it’s not as good and then when he sees them of September it’s it’s

Disastrous um I those aren’t questions I have answers to uh but it is something that occurred to me when I watched seaw Wald in a short series after they got to see him a few times they seem to really kind of lock in on him I do like their

Depth a little more now than I did at the beginning of last season we saw Andrew srank come up late in the year he had some pretty meaningful innings for them in the postseason he looks like a nice piece for them gingle still there Ryan Thompson they got from the Rays

Midseason he was a good addition too so between those guys Miguel Castro it’s probably at least an average Bullpen going into the season with maybe a slightly above average a group when they have a lead that they’re trying to protect so they’ve done some pretty good

Things here GLE as the guy who could take over if SE Walt strugles struggles um you know he had a really good season last year in fact the last two seasons he’s been he’s been really strong um lost a little bit of Elo last year uh so

You kind of want to see where he’s sitting uh but if he’s sitting 96 again uh you know I think he could take that job if if sea wal stumbles so as we’ve done throughout the series we’ll continue to do we keep looking at the picota win loss projections for every

Team over at baseball perspectus 86.2 wins is the win total for the Diamondbacks using the Goldilocks porridge scale too hot to too cold or just right let’s see the Diamond Backs are right now 1 2 3 4 five 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14th in total projected War you’re

Saying 86 wins that seems just about right uh although I guess 15th would be technically supposedly 81 but it’s just not how it works no you know they are not distributed evenly they’re not distributed evenly there’s there’s some teams that are much worse that going toh

Feed off of like the Rockies like we mentioned so I think 86 is just about right how does a team blow past that um you know I think it’s just uh Alec Thomas and Jordan Lawler you know kind of stepping forward those are you know two of their weaker places

Offensively Brandon F so I think it’s a little bit on their young players yeah I would say Alex Thomas Jordan Lawler and Brandon fought are the keys to this team they put together a bunch of veterans around them that are going to probably just do what you expect them to do maybe

Moreno can take another step forward but it’s I I don’t I think that’s already he’s good he’s really good I don’t need to put expectations on him as a catcher it’s it’s tough enough I think sealing projections for him as a hitter are still above what

He’s done so far but he’s already done enough where this is fine if this is who he is that’s not a problem for the dback this is Moreno yeah it’s a it’s a if Moreno does more than what he’s done so far and he’s capable of it but they

Don’t necessarily need it to come from him he he used to lift the ball a little bit more in the in the lower miners um he’s now been you know a ground ball hitter in the majors uh so far but that doesn’t mean that’s his

True Talent so if he can lift the ball a little bit more um 1097 Max DV suggest that he could be a 15 18 Homer hitter uh that’s beyond what is projected to be but that would be a breakout for Moreno is 280 18 homers you know 5 to 10 Steals

And uh that’s pretty good for a catcher and even just compared to his small sample from Toronto in 2022 we saw you fewer swings at pitches outside the Zone we saw a little more hard contact from Mareno took over that job and looks like he’s the catcher for the long-term future now in

Arizona let’s move on to the Padres I put the Padres ahead of the Giants because in my mind they’re still better I don’t know if that’s actually true it’s just something I think is true so we’ll talk through it we’ll see how this goes uh not surprisingly at all jerks

And profar actually just resigned with Padres so if we were wondering who was g to play a lot in left field yeah there there’s your there’s your inexpensive solution to go out there and maybe get 450 plate appearances and take some of the pressure off a few of the younger

Guys that we’ve talked about but you know it’s it’s a weird year for the Padres having traded woto and you feel like the window slammed shut as far as them being a team that was going to spend aggressively and have this sort of different approach under the late owner

Peter seidler we’ll see how much things change how quickly things change beyond the sto deal it’s becoming a little more of a topheavy sort of lineup I think that’s the the main takeaway for me and Fernando tatis Jr I thought showed us a lot we talked about him a little bit on

The The Outfield preview his first year back after suspension and a long layoff due to injury there could still be some Rust in there I think there’s some questions as to whether or not he’s going to sustain the improved strikeout rate if he brings the power back whichever version of

Tatis you get there’s power there’s speed there’s now good defense in the Outfield you still have tatis you still have Machado who seems to be recovering well from that arm surgery you still have Hassan Kim he didn’t get traded and I know you’re down on Xander Bogart but

If he’s your fourth best position player you’re not in bad shape as a lineup so I think this is a position player group that probably is getting dinged a little more than it should simply because of the stto trade I think it for what it’s worth

They kind of went from being uh maybe topheavy everywhere on the team um to you know trading some of that top heaviness in Juan Soto for depth on the pitching side I mean that’s obviously what they did in getting Michael King Johnny breedo and Randy Vasquez talk

About them later but what it did do on the hitting side was make them more top heavy so I I was surprised to see though because I I thought I’m going to take the bat X projections and sum up all the outfields and I’m going to find the Padres at the

Bottom and that’s not what I found according to the bad X the the Padres Outfield is exactly average that’s not what I see with my eyes when I look at it I I don’t think Jose aukar is a starting outfielder I don’t think jeren profar is a starting outfielder in this

League jerx and profar last season had one of the 20 worst seasons since free agency began uh it was as bad as 2011 Miguel olivo if anybody remembers those days I do I do remember those days yeah so uh you know there’s a uneski betting Court

Uh year in there the Chris Davis year where it all fell apart is in there um you know napy Perez season is in there so he’s not in a good place uh coming off of last season I’m not sure he’s a starting level outfielder could he be a

Fourth outfielder sure CU aakar be a fourth outfielder sure that’s two fourth outfielders and a star and uh so it puts a lot of pressure on I think Jacob Marcy and maybe Graham Paulie for one of those guys to step forward maybe the opening day Outfield is azukar profar and tatis

I don’t know how long that’ll stick around I mean if he if Mike Shield has any sort of power uh I don’t know that that would stick around a long time I think he would get tired of that pretty quickly and start asking for the young

Guys it’s only not a bad depth chart because of tatis like you have a star that just erases the flaws in this game yeah I think that’s probably why up to 15 I mean it was like seven and a half Wars like you know four and a half of it

Is taas so easily yeah so I guess it comes back to do you think they have any internal options between Marc and grah paully and other guys they could shift around we we know there’s Jackson Merill their top prospect at shortstop he may end up taking some reps in the Outfield

This spring maybe he becomes an option out there how do you see them solving it like are they actually done or is there still one more cheap veteran addition here even though the the proar one I guess you could have seen that coming from miles away I mean

There’s I thought Adam Duval would make sense you know if they’re not gonna I think that if they’re not going to play tatis in Center they do cut themselves off like because there are the kind of Eddie Rosario Tommy fams that they could add to this uh but they can’t play

Center I don’t think aakar is a good enough center fielder defensively or bat offensively to to take that job so center field is kind of the open one in which case I would think Jacob Marcy because they there’s been some rumors that Jackson Marl is gonna play left

Field but left field is a lot easier place to just stick a bat um and it would just be a real shame because Jackson m is a great short stop Bogarts to left field would make a lot of sense but it might anger one of your four best position

Players um and I mean it would I think it would definitely anger him so uh your your your choice is to sort of rattle The Nest rattle the bees nest um or hope Jacob Marcy steps forward in Spring and just takes center field that’s a possibility or uh why not ttis

In center and then you can say Marcy and Paulie and maybe even Eddie Rosario or Tommy fam can be in the in the corners you know um you know that that makes a lot of sense to me but it just hasn’t been done so far I don’t know what it is

I guess tatis sometimes slips mentally in the you know defensively maybe they just overrate that with their eyes and just think he can’t be a center fielder but I think he would do well with more chances he’s the kind of guy who wants to be engaged in the game he’s a he’s a

Star he’s a superstar I would say put tatis in center and keep him engaged he’s got all the tools to do it I I don’t know why you wouldn’t at least try it just given the scope of the need right now given his age given that I

Think think he clearly has the tools to at least make it a rational thing to attempt if you’re worried about him getting hurt okay I guess I understand that I think there’s a lot of evidence they get hurt more there’s still a wall there walls there’s walls for everybody

Corner they all have walls in fact this the the walls Corners double the walls yes there are more services that can hurt you playing a corner than there are playing center field fact yeah as far as the tease goes at the plate you were looking at this before the show I

Thought this was pretty interesting the the location of tati’s barreled balls in 2021 versus 2023 it’s a little bit different it wasn’t pulling the ball with his when he hit the barrels as often in 2023 yeah it’s kind of hard to see it first in the spray charts but uh

If you think about it relatively because there’s just more barrels on the left so you say oh it looks like he has just as many barrels uh Oppo barrels but if you think about it there’s just more barrels on the left fewer barrels on the right

And more of those barrels are to Center and to right than before so um there is something uh Missing with tatis a little bit but I hesit hesitate to say that it’s bat speed uh because he still hit the ball 113.5 uh and he still had a hard hit

Rate of nearly 50% so you know was you know was bat speed missing and if it was bat speed do we think that’s something that may have just had to do with the shoulder and wrist injuries that maybe another year out he can get we’re not talking about him losing five miles an

Hour bat speed I’m I’m guessing it can’t wouldn’t he wouldn’t even have this Barrel rate and have these outcomes If he’ lost five miles an hour bat speed so if he lost a half a mile hour or a mile an hour could he get that back you know

A year later after the surgery after sort of you know a regular offseason where he’s not coming back from two surgeries um I think yes and I think this is a subtle change that uh does not worry me so much so I’m fully in on tatis I think he’s going to

Get back to that at least 250 ISO level um and that’s where most of the projections are but the bad x uh you know finally when it came out recently kind of put together what I’m saying which is I think he can hit 285 with a

263 IO 36 Homer is like this is this is who I think tatis can be and yeah I’m sure if you if you stick the badx into the pro into the projection uh system into the auction calculator as I am doing as I talk um that uh tatis comes

Out pretty nice fifth best batter in the league and uh so I think he’s a he’s a pretty interesting guy the top of you don’t get a lot of value plays at the top of a of a of a fantasy draft in the first five six picks but tatis might be

One of them mean still theoretically shows the tools that could make him the best player on the board like it could happen it’s not there’s three or four guys that consistently go ahead of him who seem more likely to do it but he’s at least still has that you can’t say

That about everybody even in the first round you can’t say that about everybody I’m solidified in the first round like you know like I I suppose there could be different settings and different systems and and different things that could make me wrong about this but it seems pretty

Universal to me that I’m going very solidly and I don’t care saying this if you’re in a draft with me I guess you’ll know aunia Julio and I guess a little bit closer with Carol and tatis but I’m gonna go Carol tatis you got to up in that big

Five okay yeah that’s how much I like him and with his ADP right now being more like seven or eight that’s what I’m saying there’s a value play of course Strider being we had that whole discussion Strider being the clearly number one uh pitcher you know starts uh

You know starts nibbling away at like the fourth and fifth batter I get it and then also um Corbin Carroll’s shoulder you know and and then tati’s issues that you know that’s where you start to have some nits you can pick but I’m pretty solidified in that top four right yeah

Tati’s shoulder wrist motorcycle accidents P suspensions I heard someone say Rec they have a no knucklehead Rule and I and I I’m wondering I think tatis might be on the knucklehead list that seems like it might have been inspired by Ian Khan the name at least the no

Knucklehead list that was that was always a catch all that Ian had uh let’s talk about the pitching for the Padre’s it’s looking good we learned about a week or so ago that both just Joe Musgrove and U darish are going through completely normal Winters now that spring training has started for the

Padre’s they’re on the same schedule as everybody else adps are going to go up for both of those guys they’re not going to be relative Bargains quite the same way they have been because everything’s going really well we talked about Michael King at the time the podres

Acquired him from the Yankees as sort of the centerpiece of that deal that sent Juan stto away it’s just GNA come down to Innings and how effective he is over the course of the season right I could see King being really good for the first two or three months and maybe fatigue

Catching up to him a little bit he’s been a starter before it’s just been a long time the Yankees have had a need for starters King hadn’t really been the guy they turned to in some of those spots so I’m not sure I’m I’m as in love

With Michael King as the trendy breakout pitcher to Target in that range as everybody else is I I I like him I understand why people like him I just think there’s a little more risk cooked in there because the look I I and I like pitching risk I actually you’re the

Glass now guy I’m the glass now guy I think it’s this is one of those cases where I’m like hey it’s cheap like it’s cheap compared to Glass now but are you buying skills that you really trust from a quality starter or you buying it from someone that did it

For a little while I think that’s something that you also have to reckon with aside from the injury questions like is this really going to work as well as it did in the second half of last season over a full season as a starter I trust him a heck of a lot more

In San Diego pitching in Petco than I did if he had to deal with Yankee stadium for half the starts yeah I mean I think that’s I trust Ruben Neel as a pitching coach I trust the the Padres Park I’d actually trust the Arsenal because it’s a dominant Sinker slider with a good

Forcing change up so it’s a pretty wide Arsenal you know it’s not U someone that it’s not like a Christian Javier type who was just foream slider and was so good that they moved him into the rotation uh you know I’m I think this is more of a regular starters Arsenal and

He commands most of it and even though the four SE change are you know secondary pitches for him he got really good results on them and yes they may suffer if he has to throw them more but um you know I I I think he he proved

That he can do it I think that the real big thing for the Padres is if they get more than 500 Innings from Musgrove King and darish they’re going to be a re they’re going to be better than their projections they’re going to be a really

Good team um if they get you know more like 350 which is also a possibility uh then they’re going to have 150 uh even with the depth that they acquir they’re going to have 150 Innings they have to fill with people that I’d rather not fill it with and the back of

That Padres rotation did improve a lot along with that trade for King because you know I like Vasquez and buredo I do have them in the top five I do not really like Pedro V uh or Matt walren that much um and you know Pedro V uh has

Minus command of most of his pitches and stuff wise really only has like one pitch the change up that is um that stands out and if you look at stuff like strikeouts minus walks it wasn’t good so you know if you have 150 more Innings from a and Waldren uh I think that’s

Going to be bad for the team um but I do like Vasquez and burrito to some extent Vasquez has this is who we looking at right now this is Pedro yeah we’re looking at Pedro’s mix uh 78 stuff L on the curveball 84 on the Sinker 73 on the

Fast ball it’s not good uh the change up is decent 105 Stuff Plus but then then you look at the location plus area and the curveball is the only one who locates well and he doesn’t locate the other three well at all I just don’t see

A a a plan of attack where you say he needs a strike he’s going to get the curveball over 3 0 uh and and then if he if it even if that is the case then people will start sitting curveball three 0 because he has

No other pitch he can command so if you have like one pitch you can command and one pitch for stuff and they aren’t the same pitch I think it’s you’re kind of so so this this uh pitch chart that we’re looking at for Pedro is not uh is

Is a reason why I’m out on him if you look at Vasquez and breedo what you see is a much more W wider arsenals they have they have more pitches more useful pitch Johnny burrito’s Sinker and slider are Sinker and breaking ball are probably better than vasquez’s best pitches but

Vasquez’s worst pitches are better than burritos so if you just want kind of four average pitches in a good Park ahead of him on the depth chart that’s Randy Vasquez if you want like a little bit more oh he could maybe get more whis and break out and be a little bit better

Going forward that’s Johnny breedo I think that they’re both going to get 100 Innings at least they need right I me there are some rumors that the Padres might sign another pitcher even if the Padres sign another pitcher their six starters going to get 100 Innings

So well and I think even though we have clean bills of Health on Musgrove and darish and you and I both like both of those guys like there’s elevated risk on both them plus king someone will miss some time out of that Trio almost certainly even if they get to 500

Innings someone could be hurt for a little while and right 600 is full right as so as it stands right now yeah I think you’d project Vasquez and breedo to have the fourth and fifth spot and V would be on the outside looking in you know Matt Waldren you’ll see on the

Depth chart I don’t I don’t see a lot that I like there they brought back Luis patinho this off season so who knows a Reclamation project might end up in the bullpen too that’s not there’s nothing guaranteed to him just as far as an opportunity to start goes so there’s

There’s a lot of questions in the depth I think burrito makes a lot of sense to me because you look at the way he struggled mostly against lefties last year homers were the problem it’s not a surprise at all slider guys throwing against lefties I mean that’s what you

Want for Breo is a cutter or change or some some sort of you know some sort of step forward against lefties for sure yeah nine of the 14 homers he allowed last season came at Yankee Stadium he threw about 18 more Innings on the road too so big difference in the home road

Splits Ra was like two and a half runs lower a little more than that even for burrito outside of Yankee Stadium a 37 I don’t think he it’s a 317 true Talent pitcher I just think he’s a guy that was going to get more than most in Yankee

Stadium with the pitches he has with the flaws he has a lot of that can be erased by the park so two pretty interesting depth guys who go super super late for Fantasy purposes they’re they’re they’re in my they’re both making appearance of my deep sleepers article so you can get

Those anytime you want um and I and honestly I don’t think they’re great fits for 1012 last pitcher because for those leagues but they’re pretty good draft and hold picks if you ask me like they’re G to play all year how many times you gonna be like oo I

Got burritto in San Diego against the Giants like maybe Circle that one um you know another thing that I just wanted to mention was that I heard from a team analyst of somebody that was in uh burrito’s old division that they had burrito Sinker as one of the best run suppression sinkers in

Baseball so pretty interesting too again not real useful against lefties so you you want to see you want to hear something about one of his pitches that’s not the Sinker or uh the breaking ball in the spring the the I think they call it a curve ball so if you hear

Something about something other than Sinker a curve taking a step forward from Johnny buredo he could actually surpass Randy vascos we’re not that far away from our our closer preview that we just did but since we record that the Padres have said they’re not going to name a closer

At least not yet which is a little weird uh Robert Suarez is still my favorite for the job Yuki Matsui it’s because of those guys they think it’s because young guys it maybe even uh because there was like a little bit of a sort of a nck and and a nod to

To the young guys I mean to the guys coming over from MVP in Korea to be like you you’ll be in the mix for closer yeah maybe f with us maybe that’s what it is I my assessment of the situation continues to be if Robert Suarez is healthy

Will be he will be the primary source of saves maybe it’s a slight share if they had 40 saves as a team I would expect at least 25 and probably 30 to go to Suarez as long as he’s healthy yeah mat’s fastball looked really good in the WBC

By Stuff Plus but uh none of his other pitches did but they also didn’t he didn’t throw that many um so I’m interested to see what his secondary pitches are like I suppose Yuki Matsu could could take that especially if Suarez is is uh I would watch watch

Suarez’s vo that’s a good way to know how health he is and I think wuk go had some real command issues so I think they’re he’s gonna be more of a a setup guy yeah I I think he’s like sixth and seventh inning more than late late

Innings for the Padres this year just a gut feeling based on some things we’ve seen from him they still have Stephen Wilson who’s who’s really solid you know they have some options they do a couple prospects that could be on the way Drew Thorp came over in the WAN sto trade we

Could see him before the end of the season if there’s problems with injuries or if you know some combo of breedo or Vasquez or other guys that relying on the back don’t come through Dylan Lesco could be a fast mover through the system maybe maybe for a late late season sort of promotion

Robbie snelling’s the guy that I think you really want to keep an eye on another guy that’s moved very fast got time at Double A last year actually made four starts there and looked pretty good had a little bit of a a walk problem during his brief time there but geez a

156 ER as a a teenager pitching at Double A yeah that’s good good yeah I think he was my league pitcher of the year the Fang grass grades are a roller coaster a little bit 4550 fast ball that’s not great 4550 slider uh change

Up 30 45 wait why is this guy good and then uh command 20 present 50 future like 20 is the worst you know the scouting scill goes 20 to 80 so they’re saying that he has terrible command that might become average I mean his walk

Rates don’t look like that he had a 6 and a half% walk rate in AB ball a 7.6 in high a 13.7 in doua is not great but that was 17 in a third inning so like there’s a little bit of a disconnect here between like oh man they don’t like

His stuff and they really hate his command and wait he struck out like 28% of the Batters he saw and walked like nine% of them like seems like a strange combination of scouting grades and uh results so I’m I I want to see more of

Him uh I have not uh you know laid eyes on him in person yet um just seen some some stuff on on video and I think that uh they’ve got him probably internally circled as you know this could be our wild card for for the late season definitely seems like they’re higher on

Him than some of the uh the analysts have been up to this point given how aggressively They promoted him Padres according to picota 79 three wins too hot tooo cold or just right I’m gonna give him the incomplete oh come on I’m going too hot no I’m just

Kidding I’m going too cold no the reason I’m giving in complete is like I I think they could be better than 79 wins with just a little bit of work and if you you know there’s a big discussion about like how much money they have to spend um and

You know one of the things that they were told was they had to keep it under uh you know under 200 million or so and or two under the the the first luxury tax AER and I think there’s in fact when they were given the loan um they were

Told that um uh they they couldn’t get the 100 million they asked for uh when they were when they asked for the loan and uh they had to get they had to take 50 million um and I think there was some sort of debt servicing rules that are in

The collective bargaining agreement that are related to why they can’t go over the first luxury tax which is 237 but right now their luxury tax number is 215 I see a lot of people reporting it as 159 but that does not include a lot of other stuff they’re still spending money

On Eric Hosmer they’re still spending money on Matt Carpenter um so there’s some other stuff that like that’s added into that 149 it’s actually 215 for luxury tax purposes do they have $2 million left probably not do they have $5 million left could they make an outside

Difference with $5 million they just got Spencer Turnbull for $2 million in Philadelphia I think Spencer Turnbull would have been a good signing for them what would Eddie Rosario cost what would Adam Duval cost I think those won’t be a lot in terms of moving that line that

You’re saying 79 you know wins or whatever um but they would mean a lot to me when I look at the depth chart and think about the Padres just to get one or two more veterans on here because they improved their depth and their young guys are knocking on the door I

Just want to have Duval there in case Jacob Marcy is not ready because I don’t like having aacar there in case Jacob Marcy’s not ready you know what I mean and so I’m I’m gonna give him an incomplete and too cold I think it’s too

Cold already but I I think that like one or two signings could knock them into hey these guys are ready to compete for a wild card most likely those signings would nudge the wind total up but you think it’d still probably be lighter than than it should be which I think it

Comes back you put Duval on you put Duval and Turnbull on this team and the the over under goes to 80.5 and I’m still thinking like no this is more like 83 84 and get a little lucky get 86 88 you know yeah yeah I think Health’s

Going to be a huge part of it for this team in particular huge for everybody but they’ have got a greater dependence on a smaller group of guys that have some known injury issues me injury risk guy I think it’s too cold that’s just where where i’ like to live we finished the

Arizona talk with just like you know how does this team take a step forward it’s really obvious Luis cazano takes a step forward Jacob Marcy takes a step forward you know maybe Jackson Merill uh you know makes the big leagues maybe tuo marono maybe somebody that we haven’t

Talked about takes a step forward maybe Vasquez or burrito like it’s it’s the young guys here too you know the the the collection of veterans is not as solid as the Dbacks but it’s it’s a similar sort of setup where where they’ve got a collection of veterans and then a bunch

Of young guys in positions of need so there’s that’s how you you write the story of the Padre’s you know making the playoffs next season is you know two or three of these young guys just took a step forward let’s try to write a story that puts the Giants back in the playoffs

That’s going to be a little bit harder to do and projections say they’re actually a tick better than the Padres only about a full not even quite a full win according to picota 80.1 is their number little bit of a spoiler there I think this is a a team that because they

Had the just ridiculous run back in 2021 just a season where everything went right they did a lot of things right and then kind of got lucky on top of that it just messed up our perception of where they were at what their true Talent level was and it’s been a couple of

Years trying to unpack like okay where are they now exactly I look at this group of hitters and it’s pretty funny like even if you don’t play Fantasy maybe you can appreciate this they do not have a hitter in this Giants lineup inside the top 100 overall so there’s no

Giant hitter that goes in the first 100 picks of a fantasy draft it just doesn’t happen and they only have two inside three on average for every other team right it’s yeah most teams have a few yeah it’s just it’s unbelievable Tyro Estrada is their most valuable position player for Fantasy play

Because he steals bases and doesn’t hurt you in average gets the some power he’s good good player but that’s the hard thing about this team right now as you start to look at this group of hitters and even if you’re you bullish on jung-ho Lee okay like what what else is

There compared to the other teams we’re looking at in this division especially and we haven’t even looked at the Dodgers yet what are they doing with this group of position players yeah I you know we just finished you know last two with like you know what goes right who steps forward and

You know I’m going to have something on Marco Luciano um you know that’s that’s uh positive but I’d rather be negative first because I don’t know if it’s because I’m here um and I have to see them like I think Patrick Bailey is a wonderful defensive catcher fantastic

Yeah I think Casey Schmidt is a wonderful Defender I’m out of nice things to say about young hitters coming up through this organization Luis Matos came up and it seemed like a surprise to everybody in the organization that he couldn’t play center field well you know it almost

Seemed like a surprise to people that he wasn’t fast and I’m just like like okay like listen me idiot who doesn’t watch every minor league game I was surprised that he was slow and couldn’t play center field but y’all like run this team like somebody should have noticed that

Before you stuck them out there um I think that caused them to kind of panic and maybe overpay for Jung hul Lee a little bit I mean the the numbers that they they gave Jung hul Le will make sense if he’s a three four- win player as the projections say but also were

Like 20 to $30 million more than projections uh suggested Jung Hulu is going to get why do you do that because you’re like crap we are how do you get young up the middle when your young up the- middle guys that are coming up can’t hit and so like I don’t really like

Tyler Fitzgerald either like I don’t I don’t like Casey Schmidt’s bat at all he swings at everything P Patrick Bailey is a switch hitter he could take a step forward there’s some things I like about him he could be emerging as kind of like a a really solid catcher like uh he’s not

The same kind of guy as Shay langelier but like we said nice things about Shay langers you can say nice things about Patrick Bailey it doesn’t mean he’s great for Fantasy but you know he’s a he’s a good catcher they they have a good number one catcher I’m gonna say

Some nice things about Luciano later but uh generally I am a little bit dismayed by the state of Player Development in San Francisco given all the resources they have uh given the attention they given it I it it doesn’t seem like it’s it’s working right now right makes you

Wonder if the problem is more in scouting and and bringing the right players into the organization because it seems like at the the top end one of the things they were doing well even a few years ago was Finding guys in their mid or late 20s and turning them into useful

Big Leaguers which I think we would agree as coaching well yeah yeah you have Smart coaching you’re you’re identifying guys that slip through the cracks on The rosters that’s good if you’re not finding good talent through the draft International free agency that’s a problem if you can’t turn young

Players into good players that’s a problem Luis Matos that is pretty strange right I mean for a guy that got to the big league still young you’d think if anything if he’s if you on paper you’re like this guy plays center field he doesn’t strike out a lot he

Could steal some bases he gets to occasional power he must run well 60th percentile in Sprint speed for a guy that’s 21 years old it’s not great but yes the organization should be fully aware of of that as a shortcoming so he does look like a a corner outfielder he

Doesn’t hit like a corner outfielder so that’s kind of funky MH it doesn’t matter if you got some other guys in your roster that exceed expectations relative to their position doesn’t really matter where the production from but the rest of your roster is old but

The rest of your roster is a bunch of guys that are better served mostly mixing and matching and being put in their ideal spots not guys that you necessarily want to play every day I mean you you look at this list who do you like to possibly exceed like you

Could you could get as many Giants hitters as you want because they’re so cheap but Michael forto doesn’t look like the same guy post shoulder injury I thought there was a chance they’d get more out of him last yeares but he’s 30 now and the the bad

Ball quality is is is worse than when he had before the shoulder injury I mean like the improvements to JD Davis’s defense that we’ve talked about I don’t know if most people thought any organization could do that that’s a nice win but I’ll say something nice about

Him listen that was the first time he did 546 plate appearances to my eye he was gassed in the in the in the at the end of the season like could he just be more prepared more ready for 650 plate appearances could he be a guy that they

Just stick in there he was 4% better than League average of the stick what if he starts out well and he’s more like 10% like for his career he’s 14% better than League average of the stick what if he’s played to his career numbers early on and they just said you know what

Screw it like you’re our everyday first baseman or whatever it is you know you’re everyday third baseman like and he basically isn’t that much better per per AB but like just gets to 650h like is that a possibility the reason I think it’s a possibility is that you know I don’t think Casey

Schmidt is a guy who’s bat you want to get into the into the into the lineup you know so yes you could give DAV Davis a blow but it’ just be to give him a rest it’s not because you like Casey Schmidt better against righties or

Something you know so I don’t see a natural person that I want in the lineup more right now that’s a caveat like Matt Chapman’s still out there you know yeah it would help if they were to make a late edition free agency for sure they are desperate for it at this point so

Davis I like a little bit Lee Lee like just maybe he has a little bit more power than we expect and than the projections expect like maybe he hits 12 15 homers and you know that would outpace his projections and outpace his uh his price at auction so those are the

Two and then I think Tyro is just undervalued by people I don’t think he’s going to be better than he was but I I think that people just don’t appreciate how good he’s been I think the nice thing I I could say about that group of hitters is Patrick Bailey we know the

Glove is phenomenal I think there’s reason to believe he’s controlled the strike zone well everywhere he’s played in the minor so the K rate could come down or the walk rate could come up hit the ball pretty hard last year 38% hard hit rate’s not bad he doesn’t pound the

Ball into the ground a lot because his defense is so good he will continue to play a lot he could get better so I think there could be some growth from him at the plate but again these are pretty small bumps over the projection it’s kind of like if if someone’s going

To go just Bonkers in this line up somewhat unexpectedly and I only say somewhat because he’s a top prospect people have known who Marco Luciano is for years it’s that everything clicks for luano and they get huge growth that would be like the one Big C surprise you

Could maybe project and I like him because he’s hit the ball hard uh 111 .8 in the majors last year and if you combine his majors and minor league hard hit rate he gets a 51.6% there so I went looking for players under 25 last year that um had a

Max evev over 111 and a hard hit over uh 48% um and the people that he’s lined up with and then I also was like well he can’t he misses a lot so like I have to put that in so I put the swing strike rate had to be over 14%

So it’s a mixed bag but it’s an interesting mixed bag listen to these the comps for him Everson Pereira Mark Vientos Christopher Morell Nolan Gorman Fernando tatis Jr MJ Melendez it’s a you know it’s a it’s a group where not every one of these guys is gonna set settle in

And be a major league regular Mark Vientos the glove is bad but Luciano does not have that glove problem and everon perer is an outfielder on a team that is going to give you a 100 plate appearances before you’re traded or cut or you’re back in the minors you know

Like they’re not going to give him a long extended look I don’t think that’s true for Marco luano I heard it’s this a little bit from the old regime but I heard the plan was just to stick them in at shortstop at on day one and uh I

Don’t see anybody out on the market that they’re going to stick in there over unless they they signed Tim Anderson that would be a surprise for me because they could have acquired Tim Anderson at the trade deadline for almost nothing uh and they like every other team decided

Not to so uh I think leana’s in there from day one I think his glove keeps him in there and I’m not saying he’s gonna be tatis but there’s a lot of stuff under the hood you can like and I think that one thing that really happens

Is you know he did not Chase but he also didn’t swing in zone and in fact I would tell him get in there and be aggressive make the most out of this ability if you swing and miss a lot it’s not always great to wait and be patient because

Then you might get your pitch and swing strike three you know uh I think it you know in his case almost like a you know a Pablo sandal approach might be better just getting there and rake like just swing get aggressive and and and pound some homers I’m not sure that he’s gonna

Be a superstar but uh given that he’s super super cheap this year I I’m looking to a yeah and he’s coming off a year in which the K rate was close to 30% at AA it was above 35% during his brief time in triple A so it just seems like nobody’s

Really into him there’s been some injuries underneath all of these somewhat underwhelming lines he’s been so young for the level I think most projection systems are going to spit out something pretty ugly people are going to stay away from Luciano but if he’s got a clear run the playing time if they

Believe he’s a short stop it doesn’t matter what other people think of him defensively if they’re going to give him the playing time he could actually get a lot better really fast and my I scouting says that like the actions are are fine he just throws it away sometimes andan

That’s and that’s something that really sticks out it’s like one of those things that when you see it happen you’re like oh you can never be a shortstop you know what I mean but but you know fan tatis used to throw it away and then he got

Better I and now he’s not a short stop so may not not a great example but no limited range I mean unless you’re like looking for it or trained to see it it doesn’t jump at you the same way that a throw that goes into the stands like

Everyone notic Derek Jeter is our prime example of that the catcher defense we all see pass balls like that’s why people hate G Sanchez too much dude yes he drops some pass balls it happens like once every 25 games and then you think well we lost the game because of it and

You hate him but otherwise he’s a good defensive catcher you oh let’s get to the pitching for the Giants here I tried to find I don’t if anyone picked up on this every single pitcher featured today is is doing the same thing they’re celebrating a strikeout or an end of an inning so

They’re just walking up M yelling it’s great because they they all overlay perfectly well because if you yeah if you if you did one with them actually pitching the leg would be over half the stats right and then the leg would be all like Blurry and there no no one

Cares about that but we just cut off a leg in the middle usually there’s a missing leg if if I’m messing with Photoshop but Logan web Far and Away just the the Ace of this stat right I mean does it a different way doesn’t

Miss as many bats as a lot of other top end starters but gets a ton of ground balls it’s legit right has good control has a nice home park behind him probably a tick undervalued in fantasy because of the lower K rate I have no qualms about

Web I think this is a very very good picture kind of heading up this group Robbie Ray eventually could be a clear number two it’s easy to see it once he’s healthy again I get that I understand you have to wait for it to happen the questions really come back to the rest

Of this group and until Robbie Ray comes back yeah I mean that’s one extra spot to Phill in a rotation where you’ve always got some questions they’ve done things their own way these last couple of Seasons using openers having three four inning guys you have to get Buy in on that we talked

About the Jordan Hicks Edition back in the starting pitch preview you could see it the stuff numbers are really good the questions are about command how is this different like how tell me a story that leads to a different outcome for the giant pitching staff as a group in

2024 I suppose you can squint and see a traditional rotation so it’s like one of those things where it’s almost like the when we talk about the Rangers right like let’s say you just fast forward to August let’s say they paper over it and they do fine but then in August you wake

Up and you’re like oh the rotation right now is web you know Ray Cobb uh Harrison and maybe even Hicks is back in the bullpen by then but if that’s your front four you’re like oh that’s fine those those people come out there every five days and give you five

Innings you know it’s not we’re not playing a bunch of Tricks here um but they’re gonna have to play a bunch of tricks to get there and that’s why I think this team more than any other team could use Blake snow oh yeah that’s why

I put snail at least on day one he’ll be healthy and if he’s hurt later well then you can replace him with Alex cob Robie right the grant brisbee Mitch Hedberg frozen banana pitcher approach that that’s still here that’s still part of the Giant’s DNA that may that may never

Go away so long as you know Farhan is is heading up the front office but you know you Alex Cobb is coming off of hip surgery so there’s another guy doing it too yeah you can’t just automatically assume he’s 100% full go in the season starts he started a throwing program a

Few weeks ago but there’s some question there I think they have to try Jord Hicks as a regular starter initially and they’ve got each each level they can try on the way down if it doesn’t work oh it didn’t work going five plus at a time

Okay let’s put an opener in front of him let’s see if he can get three four Innings at a time oh if that doesn’t work then we’ll we’ll use him as a fire out the bullpen maybe in fact actually uh because of it’s a confidence play

Maybe go the opposite way start with the biggest baby gloves you can you know start him in his first start he has an opener and he goes three Innings and you say wow that was great you know and the second time out you give him four

Innings you say Hey listen you got it and then two or three weeks in he’s actually got a full spot that’s that’s how I would do it I think do make put him in a position to succeed make it as easy as possible for him to succeed the

Problem with that is that means Kyle Harrison has to be in every has to be in every down back has to be a guy who actually goes into deep into games and Keaton win has to deep pitch deep into games in fact for this to work because

Jordan Hicks is going to require Bullpen days and I think Tristan Beck is going to require Bullpen days because he only has a good slider and not much else so he’s really a three-inning guy so you can’t have three three-inning guys in your rotation I don’t think I think

Keaton win probably gets a shot to be used like a regular starter right away if you look back at the workloads from last season it was nine total appearances that he made with the big club uh all of them except for one were four or more Innings yep he went five

Plus five times like that’s regular usage and he’s pretty efficient too he doesn’t run up high pitch counts either so I would say win is probably the unheralded sleeper type if you want to a comp sleeper list there’s a lot of really cool things about him he throws

The fat he throws a split finger 55% of the time I think that’ll come down because the slider he he what he told me was is that he couldn’t throw the slider after Tommy John so he just threw the splitter after splitter after splitter uh the slider looks okay by Stu plus so

And he’s more remove from Tommy John so I think he’s going to bring that slider up and it’s not gonna be a good fast ball but he showed that he can hide the fast ball with the splitter and he has good enough command to that splitter so

I think he’s going to be a really weird pitcher I can’t think of many people who are like slider splitter and their Force seems not that good but he could he has the chance like I think when you’re looking at the rotation at least right now he needs to actually pitch like they

Have he has to pitch I think I would draw the line for now as far as drafting Keaton win 15 team mix leagues as one of your bench pitchers I think you could do that I think you could stream them at home in some more shallow leagues I

Really think there’s a window there to actually do that early in the year because he should go undrafted in more shallow formats unless he just has an amazing spring in which case people might start to get excited if to make him their last pitcher in a 12 team

League or something along those lines who’s your would you rather if you were going to take one of Harrison or Hicks who would you rather have for this season I’m not looking at my I’m not looking at my [Laughter] rankings I guess Harrison I think he just has more Innings but

Um if I could like somehow make it like a use case or something like like on a per inning basis I take Hicks yeah two for two on shares of hicks in my draft and hold so far so don’t know if I’m going to have

On every roster but uh got a little bit of Jordan Hicks already in well that’s a good one in draf and hole because you’re like worst case scenario on buying 60 or 70 good Innings as a short reliever I know he’ll be good I think as a muling

You know bulk guy I think he might be good that was one of my defenses of it is he’s not that expensive and in that format especially three or four Innings with a shot at a win in a good home park I’ll take uh I’ll take my chances plenty

Of KS likely Jordan Hicks as well so for the projection 80.1 as things sit right now from picota too hot too cold or just right just right I I mean it just it seems like a pretty mediocre team yeah I’m going to give him it I’m gonna give

A too hot I think they’re G to come in a little under it’s it’s only a little bit too hot relatively speaking but I don’t give out enough two Hots so I can’t think everybody’s underprojected I’m just a little bit surprised they’re ahead of the Padres because when you

Look at the Padres I think it’s very obvious that there’s two two places of need and that’s the Outfield and the back end of the starting rotation but when you look here I feel like the the the need I guess the need is more spread out they’ve got okay options and so it’s

Hard to like but I would just say the need is like the entire lineup other than maybe one the first hitter and the second hitter you know it’s illum it’s Illuminating to see adps where there’s two in the top 300 that position player group that’s that’s part factors and stuff but like yeah

That’s I think the need is the entire lineup and the back back into the rotation and maybe even some part of the bullpen be you know depthwise yeah big year for this front office though I think they need to have some success if they uh want to keep everything together

Beyond I expect one of the Boris uh clients that’s still out there to to end up in San Francisco I think it’s a little bit desperate times Farhan zi I think got a one-year extension so that’s that’s how good he feels about his job security I bet yeah

That would be uncomfortable to uh to say the least in a role like that well we are going to go as we sign off just heads up we got a big show announcement coming tomorrow so be sure to tune in for that always exciting to have something like that that we can share

You can find Eno on Twitter at Enos seras you can find me at derck V rer the Pod is rates and barrels and you can get a subscription to the athletic for $2 a month for the first year at theathletic.com rates and barrels and we got lots of folks out there who maybe

Just started tuning in recently with with the Super Bowl having been played on Sunday today is the first day of fantasy baseball season for some folks welcome we’ve been at it for like three and a half months because we really don’t stop but we’re happy to have you

Here and uh we look forward to you catching up we got a position preview series that already dropped so be sure to check those out wherever you listen to podcast or watch those on YouTube if you’re watching us on YouTube be sure to hit the like button on this video

Subscribe to the YouTube channel if you haven’t done so already and drop us a comment on this video we’ll try to pick up some mailbag questions for an upcoming episode here in the near future so that’s going to do it for this episode rides and barrels we’re back

With you on Tuesday I got you my young breakout pictur is out there if you subscribe you get to read that and uh as always thanks for listening

Eno and DVR continue their Team Preview series, looking at the three teams projected to finish in the middle three spots in the NL West — the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Giants. Will Arizona’s offseason upgrades be enough for them to return to the playoffs in 2024? Can the Padres rebound after sending Juan Soto to the Yankees in a blockbuster trade in December? Is there a reasonable path forward for the Giants with their current core?

Rundown
1:11 2024 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
11:25 Key Rotation Questions & Depth Concerns
21:24 2024 San Diego Padres Preview
28:23 Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Pulled Barrel Rate Shift From 2021 to 2023
48:12 2024 San Francisco Giants Preview
56:29 Marco Luciano’s Breakout Potential & Contact Quality Comps

Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com

Subscribe to The Athletic for just $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels

Corbin Carroll Thumbnail Photo by Christian Petersen-Getty Images