So I was doing some poking around on [HockeyViz](https://hockeyviz.com) the other day, and came across [this…](https://i.imgur.com/SPyLpTV.png)
There’s a lot to unpack in that image, but in summary, this model is claiming that after accounting for teammates, competition, etc, Jordan Kyrou’s net defensive impact on the team is that we give up 7% fewer scoring chances than league average. For context, while that’s not in [Bergeron territory](https://i.imgur.com/aVRkMse.png), it looks almost identical to [Ryan O’Reilly’s age 26 season](https://i.imgur.com/Ox4XAJg.png).
That obviously sounds crazy given the general narrative around Kyrou’s defensive play, and people are generally skeptical of this kind of model, so I did a little poking around at the raw stats, and it looks like there’s something real here, and it’s an undeniable fact that we are giving up fewer (and lower quality) chances against whenever Kyrou is on the ice, regardless of who his teammates or opponents are.
[One last image for the fancy stats skeptics.](https://i.imgur.com/GUmoo40.png)
No “model” here, just heat maps of shots against with/without Kyrou on the ice. Red=more, Blue=less than league average from that location. Note how different the slot looks. I’m fascinated to see if this keeps up for the last stretch and going into next season.
by Defenestrator__
5 Comments
Kyrou has been very good this year on both sides of the ice and the only people who think otherwise don’t know hockey or are still butthurt after his interview about Chief’s firing. His contract is already a steal.
He gave up some of the breakaways leading to nothing for some nice defensive play.
Jeremy Rutherford in shambles right now.
It’s been pretty obvious that Kyrous defensive play has vastly improved this year. His backchecking in particular has stood out.
The team is in a weird limbo state right now. Kyrou has high expectations for offensive production but I think this has been a really good growth year for his overall game.
A lot of shifts burned in our zone, less reliable zone entries and puck control on the power play not entirely on him account for lower numbers. But his presence defensively has noticeably improved. He’s not going to be killing penalties any time soon but he is much more confident making sneaky plays on the puck or jumping passing lanes.
In a couple years when prospects have developed, maybe some trades are made, and Kyrou/Thomas continue to improve we’re going to see a big resurgence offensively with some pesky defense as an added bonus.