Similar material to what was in the BN but Fairburn did a pretty paint by numbers job here.
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### Will Jeff Skinner stick around?
Jeff Skinner had zero goals and one assist in his final 13 games of the season. He got demoted to the third line late in the season and never found a groove playing with Peyton Krebs. So what do the Sabres do now? They clearly indicated other players were more worthy of the top-six minutes Skinner got early in the season. But Skinner also has three years left on a contract that pays him $9 million per year. He turns 32 in May. He has a full no-movement clause, so he would have to approve of any trade. And who would trade for him? Even if the Sabres retained half of that $9 million salary, they might need to attach an asset to Skinner just to convince another team to take that contract.
Adams’ other option is to buy out Skinner’s contract. That would cost owner Terry Pegula $22 million and also carry some cap complications. Buying out Skinner’s deal would mean cap hits of $1.4 million, $4.4 million, $6.4 million, $2.4 million, $2.4 million and $2.4 million over the next six seasons. The $6.4 million number would hurt, but is it worth it to open up Skinner’s roster spot? You could certainly upgrade the roster with the savings in the first few seasons of that buyout.
If Skinner sticks around, the Sabres need to find a way to get more out of him in a third-line role. That could mean surrounding him with better linemates or convincing him to adapt his game to a lesser role.
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### How much different will the forward group look?
Trading Casey Mittelstadt at the deadline was the first signal that Adams was serious about changing the identity of Buffalo’s forward group. He tried to make a deal for a veteran center at the trade deadline but couldn’t get it to the finish line. But Adams will have roster spots to work with on the forward depth chart. Victor Olofsson, Zemgus Girgensons, Tyson Jost and Eric Robinson are all unrestricted free agents. Last summer, the Sabres didn’t make an outside addition at forward. Rookie Zach Benson was the only new forward in the lineup on opening night. It’s clear the Sabres can’t run back the same group, but how Adams uses those roster spots will be a critical component of the offseason. I would rank Buffalo’s priorities in order as:
1.) a veteran third-line center who can win faceoffs, kill penalties and add a physical edge 2.) a top-six forward who is tough to play against and makes his living in front of the net and has power play experience 3.) at least one fast and tenacious bottom-six forward who plays a physical style and can set the tempo
If Adams can accomplish that and one of Buffalo’s top prospects takes a major jump in the summer, the Sabres should look different (and better) on opening night. The decision on Girgensons will also factor into this. Adams described him as “important to the fabric” of the team at the NHL trade deadline. But if the Sabres are changing the identity of their bottom six, Adams has to be open to finding an upgrade on Girgensons.
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### Is Peyton Krebs in the picture?
Peyton Krebs is a restricted free agent coming off a 17-point season. He started the season in a fourth-line role and got bumped up to the third line when the Sabres traded Mittelstadt. He had just one goal and nine assists in the Sabres’ final 40 games. He turned 23 this season, so there’s time for him to turn a corner in his development. But he’s also a potential trade chip if the Sabres feel like they can’t afford to wait any longer for him to become a top-nine player in the NHL.
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### What does JJ Peterka’s next deal look like?
JJ Peterka played all 82 games for the Sabres and had the best five-on-five expected goal share of any player on Buffalo’s roster. He broke out with 28 goals and 50 points in his second full NHL season. He’ll be eligible for a contract extension this summer and that next deal will impact the Sabres’ cap short and long term. Adams has been quick to hand out long-term deals early, which has become a necessity in the NHL’s salary cap environment in which bridge deals are becoming less common. Adams could gamble and try to get Peterka on a shorter term deal but that may mean paying more down the line. You can’t give every player a long-term contract, but Peterka was one of the few bright spots on this roster and could warrant that type of deal.
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### Is the defense set?
Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and Mattias Samuelsson all already have long-term contracts. Connor Clifton is under contract for another two seasons, too. Byram is eligible for an extension this summer, and the Sabres view him as part of the long-term plan on the blue line. Will they be able to get a deal done this summer? And what happens with Henri Jokiharju, who is a restricted free agent and is coming off his best NHL season? If the Sabres want a different look on the blue line next season, Jokiharju would be the most sensible player to move given his contract and play this season. The Sabres can also swap out depth players since Jacob Bryson and Kale Clague are both restricted free agents. Ryan Johnson should be ready for more NHL time next season, but insulating this group with another rugged veteran might make sense.
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### Will any of the prospects be ready for the NHL?
The Sabres’ three first-round picks from 2022 could end up being the players who make or break Adams as a general manager. Matt Savoie, Noah Ostlund and Jiri Kulich have all shown exciting potential at lower levels in the two seasons since the Sabres drafted them. The Sabres aren’t in a position where they should be trying to make the NHL roster younger, but it wouldn’t be a bad outcome if one of those three prospects showed up to camp ready to make an impact in Buffalo. Kulich has scored at an impressive clip in the AHL and has developed a more well-rounded game in Rochester this season. Savoie has been dominant in the WHL again. If he can stay healthy, he could inject the Sabres’ forward group with some needed speed. Ostlund is probably at least another season away from the NHL but has the potential to develop into a quality middle-six center. Isak Rosen is another first-rounder who is getting closer to contributing in the NHL. Adams shouldn’t bank on one of the prospects making the team and certainly shouldn’t leave spots wide open for them, but it would be a nice development if the Sabres got contributions from some of the draft picks that could make up the foundation of the rebuild.
1 Comment
https://archive.ph/7XPBP
Similar material to what was in the BN but Fairburn did a pretty paint by numbers job here.
—-
### Will Jeff Skinner stick around?
Jeff Skinner had zero goals and one assist in his final 13 games of the season. He got demoted to the third line late in the season and never found a groove playing with Peyton Krebs. So what do the Sabres do now? They clearly indicated other players were more worthy of the top-six minutes Skinner got early in the season. But Skinner also has three years left on a contract that pays him $9 million per year. He turns 32 in May. He has a full no-movement clause, so he would have to approve of any trade. And who would trade for him? Even if the Sabres retained half of that $9 million salary, they might need to attach an asset to Skinner just to convince another team to take that contract.
Adams’ other option is to buy out Skinner’s contract. That would cost owner Terry Pegula $22 million and also carry some cap complications. Buying out Skinner’s deal would mean cap hits of $1.4 million, $4.4 million, $6.4 million, $2.4 million, $2.4 million and $2.4 million over the next six seasons. The $6.4 million number would hurt, but is it worth it to open up Skinner’s roster spot? You could certainly upgrade the roster with the savings in the first few seasons of that buyout.
If Skinner sticks around, the Sabres need to find a way to get more out of him in a third-line role. That could mean surrounding him with better linemates or convincing him to adapt his game to a lesser role.
—-
### How much different will the forward group look?
Trading Casey Mittelstadt at the deadline was the first signal that Adams was serious about changing the identity of Buffalo’s forward group. He tried to make a deal for a veteran center at the trade deadline but couldn’t get it to the finish line. But Adams will have roster spots to work with on the forward depth chart. Victor Olofsson, Zemgus Girgensons, Tyson Jost and Eric Robinson are all unrestricted free agents. Last summer, the Sabres didn’t make an outside addition at forward. Rookie Zach Benson was the only new forward in the lineup on opening night. It’s clear the Sabres can’t run back the same group, but how Adams uses those roster spots will be a critical component of the offseason. I would rank Buffalo’s priorities in order as:
1.) a veteran third-line center who can win faceoffs, kill penalties and add a physical edge
2.) a top-six forward who is tough to play against and makes his living in front of the net and has power play experience
3.) at least one fast and tenacious bottom-six forward who plays a physical style and can set the tempo
If Adams can accomplish that and one of Buffalo’s top prospects takes a major jump in the summer, the Sabres should look different (and better) on opening night. The decision on Girgensons will also factor into this. Adams described him as “important to the fabric” of the team at the NHL trade deadline. But if the Sabres are changing the identity of their bottom six, Adams has to be open to finding an upgrade on Girgensons.
—-
### Is Peyton Krebs in the picture?
Peyton Krebs is a restricted free agent coming off a 17-point season. He started the season in a fourth-line role and got bumped up to the third line when the Sabres traded Mittelstadt. He had just one goal and nine assists in the Sabres’ final 40 games. He turned 23 this season, so there’s time for him to turn a corner in his development. But he’s also a potential trade chip if the Sabres feel like they can’t afford to wait any longer for him to become a top-nine player in the NHL.
—-
### What does JJ Peterka’s next deal look like?
JJ Peterka played all 82 games for the Sabres and had the best five-on-five expected goal share of any player on Buffalo’s roster. He broke out with 28 goals and 50 points in his second full NHL season. He’ll be eligible for a contract extension this summer and that next deal will impact the Sabres’ cap short and long term. Adams has been quick to hand out long-term deals early, which has become a necessity in the NHL’s salary cap environment in which bridge deals are becoming less common. Adams could gamble and try to get Peterka on a shorter term deal but that may mean paying more down the line. You can’t give every player a long-term contract, but Peterka was one of the few bright spots on this roster and could warrant that type of deal.
—-
### Is the defense set?
Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and Mattias Samuelsson all already have long-term contracts. Connor Clifton is under contract for another two seasons, too. Byram is eligible for an extension this summer, and the Sabres view him as part of the long-term plan on the blue line. Will they be able to get a deal done this summer? And what happens with Henri Jokiharju, who is a restricted free agent and is coming off his best NHL season? If the Sabres want a different look on the blue line next season, Jokiharju would be the most sensible player to move given his contract and play this season. The Sabres can also swap out depth players since Jacob Bryson and Kale Clague are both restricted free agents. Ryan Johnson should be ready for more NHL time next season, but insulating this group with another rugged veteran might make sense.
—-
### Will any of the prospects be ready for the NHL?
The Sabres’ three first-round picks from 2022 could end up being the players who make or break Adams as a general manager. Matt Savoie, Noah Ostlund and Jiri Kulich have all shown exciting potential at lower levels in the two seasons since the Sabres drafted them. The Sabres aren’t in a position where they should be trying to make the NHL roster younger, but it wouldn’t be a bad outcome if one of those three prospects showed up to camp ready to make an impact in Buffalo. Kulich has scored at an impressive clip in the AHL and has developed a more well-rounded game in Rochester this season. Savoie has been dominant in the WHL again. If he can stay healthy, he could inject the Sabres’ forward group with some needed speed. Ostlund is probably at least another season away from the NHL but has the potential to develop into a quality middle-six center. Isak Rosen is another first-rounder who is getting closer to contributing in the NHL. Adams shouldn’t bank on one of the prospects making the team and certainly shouldn’t leave spots wide open for them, but it would be a nice development if the Sabres got contributions from some of the draft picks that could make up the foundation of the rebuild.