Could Luukkonen go to arbitration with the Sabres?

Could Luukkonen go to arbitration with the Sabres?

I got a new take on the Uka Lucan in contract dilemma that is coming up this summer what it should look like and really what Lucan could get out of this all of that ahead I want to get to Alex tuck as well his exit interview as we look back on his season it may surprise you the season tuck had little more one-dimensional than you might think all that ahead here in the lockon sabers podcast [Music] your locked on Sabers your daily podcast on the Buffalo Sabers part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day and thanks for making locked on Sabers your first listen every day we are free and available wherever you get your podcast part of the lockon podcast Network your team every day today’s episode of the show brought to you by indeed there’s no I in team but there is one in in indeed that’s the hiring platform you need to build yours start hiring now with a $75 sponsored job credit to upgrade your job post at indeed.com lockon terms and conditions apply need to hire you need indeed sneaky Joe debiasi of course here today on the locked on Sabers podcast we’ve got a bunch of stuff to get to that I’m excited about I want to talk about Alex tuck a little bit later on in today’s show we’ve been going player by player uh looking at their past season what’s ahead let’s do the Sabers leading score a little bit later on from this past year Alex tuck will be featured in the third segment of today’s show before that I got some stuff to say about ukap peka Lucan and his contract and maybe a different angle that you haven’t heard yet and maybe a different way this could go than you are expecting I don’t know that I’ve said this yet maybe arbitration is likely to happen for ukap peka Lucan and that is coming up here on today’s show if you want to reach out and get involved with the show of course you could always do that by heading over to our text line and you can do that by going to uh if you’re not signed up already go to join sub.com loock ons saers where you can uh sign up and sign in there today we had the world championship quarterfinals in fact as I’m speaking the US is currently up on Finland you had some Sabers in Action a little bit early on Dylan cousins Owen power and Bo Byam all advaned six to3 victory over Slovakia cousins did see his six-game goal streak end but he’s on to the semi-finals with that win JJ petka he falls does not win uh today and Germany is eliminated petka ends having a very good campaign though uh if you look at he had some highlight reel goals that I saw went a little bit viral on hockey Twitter at least PKA in seven games played five goals four assists for nine points that was tied for his team team lead and it was I mean if we’re looking at the league leaders uh or the tournament leaders he’s in the top 10 from the tournament behind the likes of burkovski for Sweden cousins of course Nico heer Eric Carlson Johnny G Brady kachuck Matthew bulby so only very good players uh paced ahead of petka he was very good his tournament ends on a positive note for him personally not obviously for the team uh but again Canada moves on and cousins has been the story of this tournament and you’ll get to see him play in the semis against an opponent TBD um by the way uh Sweden also is uh of course you’ve got Rasmus Dalene playing for Sweden they are in overtime as I record right now uh one to one against Finland we’ll see what happens uh in their game get to Uka Lucan in here speaking of Finland lukanin is not playing for Finland but lukanin has a little bit of an interesting offseason headed our way and he’ll be someone that I bet we’re going to talk about the most out of anyone coming up this summer because his contract is really interesting it’s really tough to figure out what’s going to happen what the saber should want what Lucan in should want I think all of those questions honestly are debatable when it comes to the Sab starting goenda way we know he’s the starting goenda on already when Lindy Ruff at the podium being introduced was asked who his starting golender was uh jokingly by Paul and he said three letters up I mean it’s not that you’re backed into a corner but you have you’ve announced it everyone knew it already but you have officially put your name to it that ukpa lukanin is your goenda in where I want to come at this from I heard Chad D dominis expected Buffalo an was Ching the Bulldog a little bit earlier this week and he made a good point that I not really thought about yet from a different angle about how Lucan in might really have leverage some good leverage over the Sabers in this negotiation because the sabes for a decade since Ryan Miller have been searching in the wilderness for this number one starting goenda them right it just did one year ago they missed the playoffs by one point because they did not have the goal tending until right at the very end when Devon Levi showed up from college Lucan was a part of that but he wasn’t yet consistent and this year they finally got it they got the number one goalie play they got Lucan playing like a true starting goenda that their season wasn’t really honestly horrible I think this past year was Lucan in saved their B taken on a lot of different nights and sticking with him has you know to the saers credit they didn’t just dump them they could have he had not given them any indication that this was about to happen his first couple of seasons in the NHL he hadn’t given that indication his couple of years in the AHL he had not given that indication that this was about to happen but he did it and it happened and they stuck with him they stuck with the prospect they stuck with the talent we always knew he was big and athletic and it was second round pick and that was really the most you could go on but hey it paid off for the sabes at least to this point it has paid off so now what do the contractor look like and if you’re Lucan in you know the Sabers without you are in a real bind they do not have any intention of letting you slip away and at the same time if you’re luukinen you would understand and you’re lucan’s agent this is the time to cash in you have the leverage now you might not always have the leverage because Here Comes Devon Levi and you would probably know to some extent how the sabes feel about Devon Levi they’re probably really high on him they probably believe like I do he’s a star goalie in the making he just went down to the AHL and was the second best goal tender in that League after being arguably the greatest College willing the Sabers to the playoffs one year ago he was inconsistent this year at the start but the Sabers also by the way have some numbers guys in their hockey Department right uh Ventura and even carmano s associate GM and they have an analytics department and if you have an analytics Department if you look at the analytics Devin Levi had a season that wasn’t that far off of Uka Lucin if you look at expect uh s goal saved above expected last season Lucan in versus Levi uh it’s not that different Lucan in is a little bit better but Levi is not that far off Levi faced some of the toughest competition any golender in the NHL saw last year which is very much why his safe percentage his goals allow those numbers don’t look as hot as you might think given the expected numbers um it’s because he faced crazy chances when he was in there relative to uh Lucan so here comes Levi eventually UPL knows time is now I got to cash in and now would be the best chance I think for him to get that seven or eighty year deal the term I think really would be from his standpoint I’m gonna get this and I’m not talking to you about a three or foure deal I want the seven-year deal and I want it right now because guess what you are telling everybody and I understand that for you as the Buffalo Sabers as Kevin Adams it’s all about winning right now the pressure is on you Kevin Adams and on you the Buffalo Sabers to win immediately and you can’t do that without me you need me for that I am as if I’m lukan and in this in this hypothetical I am as critical to you achieving your goals this year as anybody on this team go ahead you wanna you want to not pay me the money you think I deserve and risk losing me in any way or trade or whatever go ahead risk that and go try go trade me because you don’t like the way the contract negotiation going and go see what you get go try to find another starting golender or cross your fingers hope Levi is able to do it again which didn’t end up happening last year go find a guy because you’ve been trying to find a guy for 10 years and haven’t found one you’ve been trying you found your way to some good guys Leonard andar are not bad but Heaven stuck you’ve been looking for the number one goal tender for eternity go ahead you let me you risk losing me in any way and see how it goes for you when you need to make the playoffs this year that is how I’m approaching negotiations if I am ukap peka lukanin and because the Sabers are in a win now Mo mode because Levi is still in the developmental phase as of now because we don’t have the proven longer track record in the NHL just yet and because the Sabers have had such a hard time finding goalie’s other avenues uh in the past couple of years if I’m lcan and I feel like I am your golden ticket I am your best way of I you are under pressure and I am the best chance you have of relieving that pressure of making the playoffs so guess what I want to talk about a seven-year contract that’s if I’m looking in that is what I am approaching this from I don’t want to talk about a three or a four-year contract now How likely are the sabes to get in on that what could they do because as I mentioned lucin’s got Leverage What would the Sabers options then be if that is how Lucan wants to approach this I’ll arrive at arbitration when we come back as a possible outcome for the two t the two sides to kind of settle in as a as a possibility that’s coming up here on the locked on saers podcast we are presented by FanDuel Sports book it is playoff time there is hockey and basketball big games going on right now game sevens playoff series on the line it’s win or take all time in both the NBA and NHL and fanduel’s giving you a shot to bring home a big win of your own right now new customers get $1150 of bonus Bets with any winning $5 bet so 150 bucks to bet on spreads money lines player props and more visit fanduel.com SL lockon make every playoff shot count FanDuel America’s number one sports book visit fanduel.com slocked on to get started s jod biasi back here on the locked on Sabers podcast we’re talking UPL contract as we are trying to figure out what this could look like this summer between the Sabers and their goal tender what negotiations might look like what Lucan in might want as I just mentioned if I’m Lucan in I am all in on making this a seven-year contract eight-year contract right now I don’t know how likely would think I am to get it but I think I have some leverage and I would try to exercise that leverage if I were lucing it so what about the Sabers end of things on this if I’m the Sabers it’s easy I have no doubt at all what the Sabers should do on this front you should they should be going for a three or a four-year contract you should absolutely be trying to replicate what the Boston Bruins have done where Lena alark was on a four-year contract and while Jeremy San went from Star Prospect to 1B backup goenda this year uh now all of that time’s gone by that’s what swayman has done and oh look it’s time to pay him uh oh what’s lenus got going on here oh he’s only got one year left on his contract perfect because you only sign him to a four-year deal that is exactly what I would be gunning for with Lucan is let me give him I’ll even give him the money he wants but let me get him on a four-year contract and in those four years I will have him as a reliable onea and I will give Levi four years to do what San’s done go from Star Prospect to NHL goenda of playing like half the games to okay now it’s your net now you’ve taken over now you’re the number one now it’s time to pay you Devon Levi and oh look it’s 2027 because of what I did back in 2024 I can pay Levi long term because I’ve only signed Lucan to a four-year contract rather than the debate you could have in three years or four years which would be o Levi’s really good but I got I got five years left on this Lucan contract and that might be hard to move if he’s still good maybe it won’t be but I don’t know that I want to invest all of that in timelines are so smooth and line up so perfectly if you get Lucan in to sign like a four-year contract that’s what I’m going for if I’m the Buffalo Sabers but as I mentioned in the last segment if I’m Lucan in I’m not really going for that I think this is my time to cash in and I’m going for more than that so what about arbitration what about it speaking of Jeremy San that’s what he did one year ago Jeremy Swan went to arbitration with the Boston Bruins and how that works as I found out today exactly because I didn’t know until today that actually you can the team chooses the term so the player can choose to go to arbitration and then the team gets to pick all right what do we want to do a oneye or a two-year and then that’s locked in then the Arbiter figures out okay the Sab said they want a two-year deal for Lucan in so now we’ve got to figure that out now we have to go to arbitration that way and if I’m Ling it I might be a little worried to do that usually more often though it’s one year more often it’s one year uh the teams only want to lock their player into so in this hypothetical let’s say it would be a one year I kind of think that’s a me that might be a middle ground for both sides for Lucan in it’s okay you want your seven-year contract we’re not comfortable giving that to you right now so so go show us again you’ve only done it for one year and that includes your AHL time you’ve only done it for one year so all we want is one more year of proof you got to do it for more than one year for us Lucan in would have the chance to go out do it again have top 10 goenda make the playoffs and then you’d have to revisit where we are in a year be tough to tell him no right I have become what you wanted I’ve become your number one I don’t care about Devon Levi I am your number one and we are in the postseason and I’m a top 10 guy in the league if Lucan does that this year it’ll be hard to deny him that he’s worth a seven-year contract so for him it works out for the sabes it allows you to buy another year of negotiation uh it allows you to put it off a year right to put it off to next year where you can say well all right we’ll do the one year now and if your year is a little rocky or inconsistent like is very possible right goenda and had and if that happens well now we’re glad we didn’t give you the seven-year contract and it gives us another year to evaluate where we’re at with Devon Levi it’s possible I’ve mentioned this when talking about Levi in the past month Levi was so good in the AHL and I think very underrated for what he was in the NHL that I don’t think it’s impossible Levi is incredible this year and doesn’t matter how good LC is but Levi thrusts his way into the net and if he’s able to do that which I might say is less than a 50-50 shot but possible if Levi were to do that where he’s a star and he’s a star right now well now again you’re still now the sabes are glad they didn’t pay Lucan in um and you have him only on a one-year contract I just feel like putting it off a year kind of works for everybody a little bit if they can’t come together and can’t agree on the term of a contct contract so I wonder about arbitration now San as I mentioned as a comparable for Lucan not even for Levi but for luukinen San like let’s let’s find out who this worked out for last year with two years left on Lena all Mark’s contract at $5 million the Bruins and San went to arbitration and it ended up being after you know some good success 44 games or excuse me 37 games the year before that and while Luc well uh olark was the vzna winner in the best goalie in hockey swayan had top five numbers top five numbers in the regular season the year before that he had played 41 games and was really good that year so he actually had two years of at least good play and one year that was really incredible and that was before he went to arbitration he goes to arbitration and he gets a one-year contract worth 3.4 75 million who’ it work out for because one year later San was great he kind of took over the net he played 44 of the 82 games so it was much much of a it was a split between him and allar uh if you look at the regular season numbers they’re not too different um in fact they’re almost the same but then the playoffs showed up and swayan took over and carried them and now at 25 years old same age as Luken in the Bruins are very happy that they have San long term San is very happy that he did not settle for whatever they would have been offering last year because he went out and he earned more and the Bruins again are probably happy that they put it off a year because now it’s easier to get out of the allmar contract if they want to pay big to Jeremy San so didn’t it work out for both sides there in Boston wouldn’t we argue it did that would be the idea for me with lcas little bit of a different situation because lucan’s competition is the kid and Swan’s competition was the veteran but I wonder wonder how likely arbitration would be even if it could be a two-year deal I think that’s a very good outcome for the Buffalo Sabers if it goes to arbitration let the Arbiter decide the salary I’m not even that worried about the salary it’s the term that I’m trying to win at right now and I’m trying to get Lucan in on the bridgest of bridge contracts that I could possibly get him on not the seven or eight year contract when we come back Alex tuck let’s look back on his year and ahead his year last season was strange I don’t know that everyone realizes what he was defensively I don’t even think I did but some of the advanced numbers show he might not have been as good defensively as he thought he was but very good offensively more on talk when we come back here on the locked on Sabers podcast we are presented here on the show as always by indeed check out indeed indeed is the hiring platform where you can attract interview and hire all in one place there’s no I in team but there’s one in I indeed and that’s the hiring platform you need to build yours when you’re hiring you need indeed with instant match over 80% of employers get quality candidates whose resume on indeed matches their job description the moment they sponsor a job according to indeed data in the US indeed does the hard work for you it shows your candidates who uh shows you candidates whose resumes on indeed fit your description immediately after you post so you can hire faster indeed’s hiring platform match you with quality candidates instantly start hiring now with a $75 job credit to upgrade your job posted indeed.com locked on offer good for a limited time claim your $75 credit now and indeed.com lockon indeed.com lockon terms and conditions apply need to hire you need indeed back here on the locked on Sabers podcast 6 minut us your first listen every day uh updating you from earlier I mentioned that uh Sweden and Finland were in overtime in the world championships well guess what Sweden is on to the semis Rasmus Dalene and also uh by the way uh Victor Olson are H are through they are through to the semis but Dalene who I I failed to mention I don’t think I realized that he scored in the third period to open the scoring so he had a goal in this game and then has an assist on the power play winner by Joel Erikson e Sweden is through to the semis Sweden has not lost a game by the way in this tournament yet so Sabers are having some good success at the worlds which maybe there’s some droughty on the horizon I feel like the Sabers are uh are the team for the world championships in the last 13 years and uh that doesn’t have to be a good thing uh that they’re always the world’s team anyways Alex tuck we’ve been going forward by forward I’m going to do a little bit of less time on tu because you know we did two segments on petka two segments on Quinn two segments on cousins and Tage uh tuck feel like there’s less to figure out you know like he’s not as not to say he’s not as interesting um but he’s under contract right he is a reliable player we know he loves Buffalo he’s from the area Syracuse close enough he was a saber fan growing up he’s got two years left in his contract by the way $4.75 million you know the type of play he’s gonna give you he’s fast I’ve called him the best four Checker in the league and I believe that to this day that he is that um he’s been as steady a Topline guy as you could ask for in the last two years I mean is he jack eel no and at the moment he is if we’re going to start the TU conversation with looking back in the past and how they acquired him at the moment he is really all they have to show for the E trade and I wonder how that will be looked back on if if indeed that’s all that ends up being shown for it if Krebs doesn’t take a step at any point and just is a fourth liner for the rest of his career uh if Noah osen doesn’t become a impact player in the NHL they do have Jordan Greenway actually from the eel trade I should mention that but at the moment in terms of impact play players tucks all they got from it he’s very good but you know one verse one it’s never going to be tuck over eel it’s always GNA be eel over tuck so not a bad thing that he was a part that he’s the best part of that trade but you do want more from that trade than just Alex tuck to make it feel like it could be a real winner for the Sabres but anyways tuck in two years three years I should say with Buffalo because of course he came back from injury in that first year when he got traded 100 6 points in 199 games he went down last year offensively from 36 goals to 22 from 43 assists to 37 from 79 points to 59 points this was always likely I missed on a lot of predictions as a lot of us did by the way for the Sabers this year when we were predicting hey who could regress who could take steps forward but who could regress the name that I always came back to as this is the guy who is going to regress there was like Tage I didn’t think we knew cousins I didn’t think we knew because we didn’t have enough sample size on those guys at the at their level of play um I don’t think we knew on you know Jeff Skinner a little bit too because he’s been that level of player for his entire career tuck for me was always the guy for this hey this guy’s gonna regress here’s why he’s never been this level of goal scorer never anywhere close 36 goals he had never had more than 20 in his career before that he shot as a career 11% shooting percentage player he last year was at 16.5% we knew that was not going to hold up and sure enough it didn’t it went down to exactly where his career average is at 11.5% so you look at it and say 22 goals 59 points you know a 60 plus Point Pace because he missed seven games 11.5% shooting this is probably what the average Alex tuck season looks like which is probably a good thing right you tell me that the average tuck season is 60 plus points 20 plus goals on my top line one of the best four Checkers in the league I’m into that I really like that now that also could mean that there still are Peak Seasons that once every 3 years once every four years hey that 36 goal campaign maybe he has one or two more of those in him somewhere because we’ve seen it in him you might need Tage to be a superstar but you know that’s that’s how I look at tuck at the moment now the surprising thing that I found when looking into Tuck’s numbers because when you look at his like scoring chances created his expected goals offensively um you look at a lot of his even strength stuff uh five on five he’s he’s he’s great he’s really good um I’ve got no problems with Alex tuck offensively at five on five I thought he was actually one of the saber’s more consistent players after the start of the Year remember he had a really slow start but once he got rolling then he kind of never looked back he never really had like a long stretch of being invisible uh for the Savers he definitely had that consistency again after the start but defensively I was a little surprised to see this as I was going through his charts on evolving hockey and you can I put this chart up on our YouTube channel you could always check us out on YouTube If you uh if you’re a frequent listener and want to watch the show Alex tuck at evolving hockey he had some poor defensive numbers and that was a little bit surprising to me I I wonder how much the four checking impacts can impact this maybe it doesn’t a lot because I can’t believe he’s not incredible at it I refuse to believe that because I watch him and see all the turnovers he creates but what about the playing his own end is he not as good as we thought this has been a a thing about Dylan cousins for a couple of years this idea of cousins because he’s from White Horse and he’s the Workhorse from White Horse and his draft profile spoke as someone that was a two-way centerman in the future we always thought of cousins as a guy that’s a two-way guy and that’s not cousins cousins is is very much lacking defensively in his game at this point in his career here’s tuck percentile rank offensively at evolving hockey 79 percentile offensively 18th percentile defensively what do we make of that 18th percentile def defensively it’ll have me looking at him a little bit closer next year in the defensive Zone because I’m not going to lie I’ve never paid attention to him not like not I have but not hyperfocused in on his defensive game because I’ve always just assumed you know he’s on the penalty kill I know he’s a great four Checker he’s you know a he’s a he’s a tougher type of player he’s not that thick but he’s tall and he’s he’s you know lengthy and he’s he’s got a long stick like sure he’s good defensively oh for some reason the numbers don’t say that and that’s playing a lot with Tage Thompson who I pointed out a couple weeks ago Thompson does have good good defensive numbers so I’m very curious as to how that happened and if you look at his chart at evolving hockey total goals above replacement e shorthanded defense is not the problem tuck is a slightly very slightly above average Defender short-handed wise that’s what his numbers say even strength defense is where he’s really lacking and again I don’t really know why that is the case um but it will have me searching a little bit deeper uh in his in his numbers and in his play when I watch him coming up next season um for instance like the giveaway numbers aren’t too different this year in fact 31 giveaways versus 38 last year so and if you look at the uh at the sabes um numbers on that front and we want to look at you know what who gives the puck away the most he’s not he’s not at the top of the list so I don’t really know what to make of it defensively but it is worth keeping an eye on and I was a little bit surprised to see that uh in fact actually let’s look at his his chart from the year before which um I am not going to lie I’ve not even looked at yet and there we go look look the year before man look how good he was two years ago 93 percentile offensively and a 60th percentile defensively um very strange very strange that he took a massive step back defensively like that when the team overall took a small step forward in that department but the numbers say tuck did not but I am not worried about him I have he’s one of the players I am least worried about I think he’s a reliable player I think he’s going to give you a baseline offensively he is super fast he’s got a long stick he is still young enough right um at only this was his age 27 season he’s going into his age 28 season two years left on his contract and um he’s a saber fan growing up so I’m not really worried about him wanting out or anything like that despite the fact you know he went to the finals he’s played in the finals Tuck’s played a lot of playoff games I know it’s probably driving him nuts that this team can’t get to the postseason and if two more years that doesn’t happen then maybe revisit it but not someone that I’m ever really worried about for the long term all right it’s going to do it for us today here in the lockdown Sabers podcast more on the World Championships of course as we get to the semi-finals um and also we’ll get a little bit more into Jeff Skinner and uh some of the other forwards coming up on few our next couple of shows as we are about a month away from the NHL draft and then I can’t wait for free agency next month is going to be free agency month here at the lockon Savers podcast so stay tuned for all that check us out on our text line join sub text.com lockon say to sign up if you have not yet we’ll talk to you next time here in the lockon Savers podcast part of the lockon podcast Network your team every day

Sneaky Joe looks at UPL’s next contract from a different angle. Does Luukkonen have the leverage in this negotiation? Could he push for a 7 year contract? Plus, why Joe could see this going to arbitration, and why that wouldn’t be a bad thing.

Also, looking back on Alex Tuch’s season shows some questionable numbers defensively.

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