I want to play GM for the day. We have a tough situation with the cap after this year, more than I realized until I started doing this. I think the Sabres are going to need to use ELC's wisely to get production. So I went through 2 scenarios that I like and thought I'd share that take us through 27-28 (which obviously means lots of assumptions). In both cases we need a lot of bridge deals to make it all happen.
All of which you can see here, to keep me honest on the possible line combos and cap hit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFRo8H8tZ2k_inh8FT1eJIeDoA3RH5vEqfvSmv34c_E/edit#gid=0
Scenario 1
This scenario tries to really make the 4th line a strength but makes a compromise with a less dominant 3C.
2024-25
- Trade Rosen + Poltapov + 2024 2nd to Columbus for Boone Jenner
- Sign UFA Dakota Joshua 4 x 3.4m, William Carrier 3 x 2.5m
- Sign RFA Krebs 3 x 1.9m, UPL 4 x 4m, Bryson 1 x 1.7m
- Kulich + RJ make team out of camp
- 1st round pick of Catton or Sennecke
2025-26
- Greenway leaves as UFA
- Buy out Skinner
- Sign RFA Byram 3 x 5m, JJP 4 x 6.4m, Quinn 4 x 5.5m, Levi 3 x 2.3m, RJ 3 x 1.6m
- Savoie, Novikov + 2024 1st round make team out of camp
2026-27
- Tuch leaves as UFA (this was super hard but needed to fit the cap. You could assume someone else leaves instead but this is what I decided as he'll be 30 and I think the young guys will be better ROI)
- Sign RFA Benson 8 x 7.2m, Novikov 2 x 1.6m
- Sign UFA Jenner 2 x 3.75m, a RHD to replace Clifton ~$1.5m
- Ostlund makes team out of camp
2027-28
- Carrier & Krebs leave as UFA (or resigns as below UFA)
- Sign UFA 13F for 1.5m
- Sign RFA Savoie 4 x 5.75m, Kulich 4 x 5.75m
- Wahlberg makes team out of camp
Scenario 2
This scenario maximizes our 3rd line but means we can't splurge as much on the 4th line. Besides that we just need 1 more fwd for 13F, which I have in this case as Rousek (but could be anyone cheap). I've listed only the differences from scenario 1 below. I may have missed a couple finer details in the below summary but it's all captured in the Google Sheet
2024-25
Trade Rosen + Poltapov + 2024 2nd to Columbus for Boone Jenner- Trade Rosen + Ostlund + 2024 2nd + 2025 2nd to TBL for Cirelli
- Sign RFA Rousek 2 x 1m
2026-27
Sign UFA Jenner 2 x 3.75m, 12F for 2 x 1.5m- Sign RFA Benson
8 x 7.2m4 x 5.5m Ostlund makes team out of campWahlberg makes it
2027-28
- Sign Krebs 1.9m
by phatsystem
7 Comments
Honestly I like both your scenarios. I also think they’re more realistic than 90% of what shows up here.
I think this is pretty level headed, I don’t think I can see them making as many moves as scenario 1 but it’s nothing crazy.
Tuchs contract expires at a bad time for him. Giving a power forward in his 30s a big contract rarely works.
JJP only getting 4×6 seems low. Especially if he has another great season this year
Not all prospects are created equal. I don’t mind trading Rosen or Poltapov.
I think you can group prospects (those that haven’t played much time in the NHL) into 3 categories.
Green – All signs are positive and trending in the right direction
Gray – Too soon to tell
Yellow – Jury is still out – I Can’t confidently say hit or miss yet
Orange – Time to panic. They’re probably a bust
Red – Is a bust or miss. Hard to call a 7th rounder a bust.
We need to trade those yellows, oranges, and reds. Obviously, teams are not stupid. But keep in mind team’s do their own research and come to their own conclusion. For instance, a team might have a guy in the gray or green zone when we have see him in the yellow.
I can’t think of a real-life prospect example, but I remember the jury was almost out on Tim Connolly. All the talent in the world but couldn’t put it together. In NHL terms, maybe he was a yellow or orange…until we traded for him, and the game’s rules changed slightly.
I consider their draft position and projection. So, if a 7th rounder is doing better than expected but still only projects as an extra Dman, that’s a big win. Players like Tyson Kozak are great to see make it to the AHL, but have no NHL potential.
These aren’t in order.
Slotting | Player
😐 😐
Green | Matt Savoie, Vsevolod Komarov, Nikita Novikov
Gray | 2023 draft picks
Yellow | Noah Ostlund, Isak Rosen, Vljami Marjala (maybe closer to orange)
Orange | (G) Topias Leinonen, Viktor Neuchev, Prokhor Poltapov
Red | Mats Lingren, Gustav Karlsson, Joel Ratkovic-Berndtsson, Linus Sjodin, Aleksandr Kisakov, Stiven Sardarian, Olivier Nadeau, William Von Barnekow, Tyson Kozak, Matteo Costantini, Albert Lyckasen, Jakub Konecny
This list might not look great, but several prospects in those drafts are already playing with the Sabres. And I will say D+1, we hit on Benson, Wahlberg looks like a steal, and even Strbak has a shot, but we need to see them in their D+2 season to make a fair assessment.
If we can find a way to acquire a top 6 talent and not move any guys in the green, that’s a win, in my opinion. Hopefully, it’s a guy other teams still have hope in or were high. Even better if it’s someone in orange, but I doubt those guys have much value.
———
As specifically for your off-season(s)…
Even though I have Ostlund in the yellow slotting, I think it’s a bit much with a 2nd for Jenner, who is 30. But I am not going to nitpick it too much because I like the general idea.
I really like your depth signings. Good size on Dakota, and both have good playoff experience.
For 2025-2026, everything makes sense, though I think Savoie will be up toward the end of next year. I am a bit skiddish on Quinn since he can’t stay healthy. I think he could be a person we might try to move. Poor kid just doesn’t have any luck.
And I will say, if we are not in a playoff position in 26-27, we trade Tuch rather than let him go to free agency.
for me, my assumption is the only Jenner trade Columbus would accept is a trade we’d accept for Tuch.
I would not do Rosen + Poltapov + a 2nd for Tuch
In scenario 1:
– Why wouldn’t the Sabres do a 1 year deal for Krebs? They still have 4 years of term left of RFA status with him and he really has not justified a 3 year deal at $1.9M. Are you high on Krebs and just trying to lock him up while he is cheap?
– Byram is going to be eligible for arbitration and 2 years of RFA status. His QO is $4,620,000 and it’s been said multiple times that he wants to be paid like a top-pair guy. Why would he sign 3 x 5m when he could select arbitration? If he did, the Sabres would have a choice between 1 or 2 years and would select the 2. In turn this would walk him to UFA as a 25-year-old giving him his pick of teams and a bag at the other end. Honestly, if the Sabres don’t lock Byram up for at least 5 years that trade is a massive failure.
– Why wouldn’t the Sabres trade Greenway rather than letting him walk?
– Carrier would need more term than 3 years I think to pick Buffalo. He is going to be in demand and has only made $7M and is 29. This might be his last change at a bag.
– You don’t mention Jokiharju. As GM are you trading him or extending him? Something has to be done with him.
Why buyout Skinner at that point if he would only have that season and one remaining on his contract? I’d rather just get it over with than pay him for the next 15 years and count as dead cap.
It would suck to pay an AHL’er that much, though I really don’t think his play has enough downside to it to not be useful in the NHL, but you could send him down to Roch and “only” pay him 7mil in 24-25 then 5mil in 25-26.
Do we really want another Ehrhoff/Hodgson situation. Where I’m glad they’re both FINALLY off the books.