So I’ve been salary cap math, and basically improving this team next year in any meaningful way all comes down to Mikheyev. (Getting Guentzel, too)

Alright, Hear Me Out.

With the cap going up, the Canucks will have 18.5M in cap space. From that, based on AFPAnalytics, Silovs will get about 1M, Myers (who is being patient and wants to stay) will get around 3M, and you gotta keep him at that cost if you can, and Blueger will get around 2M (same deal – roster continuity, fair price for a good PK'er, etc)

This leaves 12.5M, and we all already know that's not enough:

• Zadorov wants 5
• Guentzel will get 9-9.5
• Joshua SHOULDN'T get more than 4, but someone probably will offer it.
• And we're not even going to include Lindholm in the rest of this.

If you sign Guentzel, you still have 2 missing spots in your bottom 6. I'm ready to roll with Nils Aman and keep fingers crossed on Lekkerimaki, but it's not great. And your 5th/6th D pairing is Friedman and Juulsen. Ouch.

You got 3M to cover all that, before we even get into healthy scratches. Yikes!

If you don't sign Guentzel, there are still a few options to give EP40 a winger upgrade. The most likely ones seem to be Marchessault, Teravinen, and Toffoli. There's definitely a drop-off in both age and skill here, but now you're only spending 6-7M not 9-9.5. Now you've got 6M to cover the gap on D. I know most of you don't want to overpay for Zadorov, but I absolutely would start with him here.

Regardless, we're either getting the best EP40 winger upgrade possible and nothing else, a pretty decent winger upgrade and a top-4 D (Zadorov or Dillon, otherwise), and that's it.

There's no room for Dakota Joshua.

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If Mikh's salary goes off the books, everything changes. First, that salary can go directly to Joshua who is a better 3rd line option to have in that position than to put Mikh there if you're signing a top-6 winger for EP40. But even if you think he's going to be overpaid, you just have flexibility on everything else. Guentzel & Zadorov? Why not. 4M left after both for a 4th line or 3rd pairing upgrade, or just to carry over into next season and use for something at the deadline or, shit, to spend on Boeser when he needs a bump.

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So this is why I think the Canucks haven't signed any other players. It's not that either the team or the players' are not willing to negotiate further. It's that this variable needs to be sorted out first.

And I think the other NHL teams aren't playing ball with the Canucks about taking Mikh either because they want to wait until after July 1st when the Canucks will be really willing to spend something to get rid of him.

July 1st is going to come around and Lindholm, Zadorov, and Joshua are all going to get contract offers immediately. They're going to take them back to the Canucks, and either update their asking price, or officially let them know that they're gone. I see 100% chance Lindholm will be gone at this point, and a 50% Joshua will be (and no shade to him; hockey careers are short; gotta get paid)

At the same time, I think the Canucks are also going to make an immediate offer to Guentzel.

What happens next is they'll get a sense of if Zadorov is worth keeping. If the market for Z isn't actually as hot as he hopes it will be, and nobody comes in with a 6M offer, he may just go back preemptively to Vancouver and say he'll accept something sub-5M.

But I don't think that'll happen. Assuming "the worst" (aka high offers for everyone listed), the Canucks will be forced to confront exactly what I described at the start – they have no way to make an improvement to the team work without dumping Mikh's contract.

At which point, if the other franchises want to be dicks about it, they can really fleece us for way too many picks. And I say let's go for it.

I still harbor scars from 2012-2014. Coming off the game 7 loss to Boston, thinking "we'll be back next year", followed by 2 consecutive first round exits, and the window slamming shut. Today's Canucks stars are closer to the start of their prime than than the Sedin/Kesler/Luongo core. But they still can't afford to throw away any years. The time to go for it is NOW.

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P.S. If you think we have it tough, to resign all their UFAs and RFAs at their projected market rate, the Carolina Hurricanes would need to go 32MM over the cap. Yeesh. Assuming they don't want to throw away their future with guys like Jarvis, they can basically only afford to keep one of Pesce, Guentzel, or Necas. Dang!