Taking away where we are in the Atlantic and who is above us, the point total feels about right. I don’t think we’ve gotten significantly better or worse so far this offseason and I think last year we got a bit lucky in some ways, so taking last year’s point total and dialing it back a little feels right to me for where we stand today.
Busy-Drawing-2576
Roster looks about the same as last year so this is totally reasonable.
eggbomberino
people are going to get all bent out of shape about this for no reason lol
AfterTemperature2198
wingedwh33l
I usually take these with a grain of salt. This model has us regressing by 3 points despite getting Kane for a full season, Tarasenko, Raymond taking another step etc. Edvinsson for Walman is a defensive upgrade imo, as is Gustafsson for Gostisbehere. Plus goaltending will improve with Talbot. I optimistically expect us to be competing with Tampa and maybe Boston (depends on what their forward depth does) for Atlantic 3 or a wild card spot.
Langwaa12
Who the fuk is Jfresh?
epheisey
I’m sure there will be a lot of reasonable, objective takes in this thread.
napalmsticks2kids
Yearly Ottawa August Cup win
burnmenowz
I don’t see the sens improving that much. It’ll be closer for the last wild card spot.
AdStrict3575
I don’t know If Ottawa will be that much better with Ullmark and Perron.
LunarGhoul
These models really like Ottawa for some reason. Their goaltending should definitely be a bit better than last year, but their defensive system is so shit that there’s no way Ullmark will be as good as he was in Boston, but he showed in Buffalo that he can at least be serviceable on a bottom feeder team.
Tkachuk and Stutzle are still elite, and I expect Stutzle to be back up to around 80 points this year, but it drops off really hard after that. Giroux and Batherson might be around 60 points, and having Pinto for the full year will help, but he’s not a game breaker. Who knows how much Norris will play, and if he does, how effective will he be?
Their defense is also pretty disappointing. Sanderson is very good and I would expect to see him take another step this year, but Chabot seems to be struggling a lot the last year or two, and then Zub and Jensen are both fine, but nothing special. Their bottom pairing is gonna be pretty rough.
Tampa I would actually expect to be a little bit better than last year, mostly because Vasilevskiy had his worst season ever last year by quite a bit, and he’s been very consistent the rest of his career.
I’d expect the Wings to be right around where they were last year. Maybe a little higher if they can find some more consistency, but I don’t think they really got much better or worse overall.
Aiomon
I don’t really think these are perfect (Ottawa shouldn’t be that high), but I don’t think they’re totally off. The Atlantic is a bloodbath, I think it would be really hard for the wings to make the playoffs.
iscariottactual
That’s gonna be a no from me, but I’m not willing to get wild in the comments about it
Aggressive_Yak5177
Nashville is behind Winnipeg? I don’t know if LA solved their goaltending problem. Vegas hasn’t improved.
Again, if things go right with Detroit…I think they can crack into the playoffs. Hopefully veterans keep them steady if Larkin gets hurt. Hopefully better goaltending.
uknownick
Montreal is the second worst team in the league???
Medievil_Walrus
Can someone easily like 2023’s if it exists? Would like to see how accurate he was.
x_VanHessian_x
Devils go from 81 last season to 104. Wow.
gigloo
I don’t see this as some crazy take. Plus or minus 6 points has wildly different results. The Atlantic 3rd slot should be wide open. I think this model does sell us and Mtl a little short, but not enough to get upset at. If Ullmark performs well behind that D, Ott could be in the mix for sure.
Who knows how Bos and Tampa will fair as they get a little older and will need to rely on their FA signings to cover what they’ve lost. Hard to count them out, but the competition grows every year. They will get unseated eventually.
R3ptar1337
This same model predicted Boston would only have 89 points during the 22-23 season.
oceanic8675
I chose to forego “feelings” a decade ago. I feel nothing.
Um. Anywho. How ‘bout that weather?
WaylonLemmyJohnny
These projections and predictions don’t mean dick. Filler content and nothing more.
MariachiArchery
We were 8th in goals for last season. *Eighth.*
The reality of our offseason is that our goals for likely improve. We should score a bunch of goals this coming year. Cat had a lower than expected shooting percentage, that should go up this year. Raymond will continue to find his game, he got 31 last year, and I expect that to go up. We’ll have Kane full time, more goal production there. If Tarasenko can play a full season, or most of it, he could more than equal all of Perron’s scoring. This team is going to score a lot of goals.
Goals against and save% for shots on goal were bad. Near the bottom of the league.
Now, we’ve made moves to sure up goaltending this offseason. I think we’ll see that save% improve.
The real wild card here is going to be the defense. We’ve lost some defensive production in Ghost and Walman, and have not replaced it in FA. Yzerman has plainly stated Ed and Johansson will be in the line up this year. That is the big unknown and perhaps the reason we are ranked low here.
If Ed and Johansson can step into the line up and produce while playing good defense. I can easily see us passing Tampa on this list, never mind OTT. That said, looking at our defense, I can see why were are low on this list.
motorcycleovercar
Ottawa is going to shit the bed.
elchapjoe
One thing people miss about the Tarasenko – Perron swap is Tarasenko had 12 PIM last year to Perron’s 55. I know a chunk came during the Ottawa game for Perron but that is still significantly fewer PKs a year if Tarasenko plays similarly. And out PP stays the same or gets even better.
We also added a really solid a penalty killer in Motte.
Holiday-Director-351
Great! I always love when people count us out. We always do better.
Unstep-in-Time
No way Ottawa finishes that high. Wash. either.
KohlWeld50
Idk if Ottawa got THAT much better, they lost chycrun and their D still sucks but yes they got a better goalie but hell, even their offense got worse with Perron replacing tarasenko
29 Comments
Loll that’s cute
LMAO this is actually comical
Taking away where we are in the Atlantic and who is above us, the point total feels about right. I don’t think we’ve gotten significantly better or worse so far this offseason and I think last year we got a bit lucky in some ways, so taking last year’s point total and dialing it back a little feels right to me for where we stand today.
Roster looks about the same as last year so this is totally reasonable.
people are going to get all bent out of shape about this for no reason lol
I usually take these with a grain of salt. This model has us regressing by 3 points despite getting Kane for a full season, Tarasenko, Raymond taking another step etc. Edvinsson for Walman is a defensive upgrade imo, as is Gustafsson for Gostisbehere. Plus goaltending will improve with Talbot. I optimistically expect us to be competing with Tampa and maybe Boston (depends on what their forward depth does) for Atlantic 3 or a wild card spot.
Who the fuk is Jfresh?
I’m sure there will be a lot of reasonable, objective takes in this thread.
Yearly Ottawa August Cup win
I don’t see the sens improving that much. It’ll be closer for the last wild card spot.
I don’t know If Ottawa will be that much better with Ullmark and Perron.
These models really like Ottawa for some reason. Their goaltending should definitely be a bit better than last year, but their defensive system is so shit that there’s no way Ullmark will be as good as he was in Boston, but he showed in Buffalo that he can at least be serviceable on a bottom feeder team.
Tkachuk and Stutzle are still elite, and I expect Stutzle to be back up to around 80 points this year, but it drops off really hard after that. Giroux and Batherson might be around 60 points, and having Pinto for the full year will help, but he’s not a game breaker. Who knows how much Norris will play, and if he does, how effective will he be?
Their defense is also pretty disappointing. Sanderson is very good and I would expect to see him take another step this year, but Chabot seems to be struggling a lot the last year or two, and then Zub and Jensen are both fine, but nothing special. Their bottom pairing is gonna be pretty rough.
Tampa I would actually expect to be a little bit better than last year, mostly because Vasilevskiy had his worst season ever last year by quite a bit, and he’s been very consistent the rest of his career.
I’d expect the Wings to be right around where they were last year. Maybe a little higher if they can find some more consistency, but I don’t think they really got much better or worse overall.
I don’t really think these are perfect (Ottawa shouldn’t be that high), but I don’t think they’re totally off. The Atlantic is a bloodbath, I think it would be really hard for the wings to make the playoffs.
That’s gonna be a no from me, but I’m not willing to get wild in the comments about it
Nashville is behind Winnipeg? I don’t know if LA solved their goaltending problem. Vegas hasn’t improved.
Again, if things go right with Detroit…I think they can crack into the playoffs. Hopefully veterans keep them steady if Larkin gets hurt. Hopefully better goaltending.
Montreal is the second worst team in the league???
Can someone easily like 2023’s if it exists? Would like to see how accurate he was.
Devils go from 81 last season to 104. Wow.
I don’t see this as some crazy take. Plus or minus 6 points has wildly different results. The Atlantic 3rd slot should be wide open. I think this model does sell us and Mtl a little short, but not enough to get upset at. If Ullmark performs well behind that D, Ott could be in the mix for sure.
Who knows how Bos and Tampa will fair as they get a little older and will need to rely on their FA signings to cover what they’ve lost. Hard to count them out, but the competition grows every year. They will get unseated eventually.
This same model predicted Boston would only have 89 points during the 22-23 season.
I chose to forego “feelings” a decade ago. I feel nothing.
Um. Anywho. How ‘bout that weather?
These projections and predictions don’t mean dick. Filler content and nothing more.
We were 8th in goals for last season. *Eighth.*
The reality of our offseason is that our goals for likely improve. We should score a bunch of goals this coming year. Cat had a lower than expected shooting percentage, that should go up this year. Raymond will continue to find his game, he got 31 last year, and I expect that to go up. We’ll have Kane full time, more goal production there. If Tarasenko can play a full season, or most of it, he could more than equal all of Perron’s scoring. This team is going to score a lot of goals.
Goals against and save% for shots on goal were bad. Near the bottom of the league.
Now, we’ve made moves to sure up goaltending this offseason. I think we’ll see that save% improve.
The real wild card here is going to be the defense. We’ve lost some defensive production in Ghost and Walman, and have not replaced it in FA. Yzerman has plainly stated Ed and Johansson will be in the line up this year. That is the big unknown and perhaps the reason we are ranked low here.
If Ed and Johansson can step into the line up and produce while playing good defense. I can easily see us passing Tampa on this list, never mind OTT. That said, looking at our defense, I can see why were are low on this list.
Ottawa is going to shit the bed.
One thing people miss about the Tarasenko – Perron swap is Tarasenko had 12 PIM last year to Perron’s 55. I know a chunk came during the Ottawa game for Perron but that is still significantly fewer PKs a year if Tarasenko plays similarly. And out PP stays the same or gets even better.
We also added a really solid a penalty killer in Motte.
Great! I always love when people count us out. We always do better.
No way Ottawa finishes that high. Wash. either.
Idk if Ottawa got THAT much better, they lost chycrun and their D still sucks but yes they got a better goalie but hell, even their offense got worse with Perron replacing tarasenko