LIVE 2024/25 NHL Season Play By Play Coverage Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs
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After their three-game winning streak was snapped on Saturday night, the Maple Leafs look to get back to winning ways against a familiar enemy in the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Despite largely controlling the play at even strength, the Leafs broke through just once on New York’s Igor Shesterkin on Saturday night despite nine shots on goal from Auston Matthews and eight from William Nylander, and 11 of those were recorded as high-danger chances by Natural Stat Trick. The power play moved to 27th in the league at 12.5% after three more unsuccessful attempts against the Rangers.
Interestingly, as strong of a team as Tampa has been for many years now and as good as their starting goaltender is, the Leafs and their man advantage have generally scored on them at a good clip in recent seasons. Since 2021-22, the Leafs have scored nearly 3.5 goals a game and clicked at 25% on the power play against the Lightning in the regular season. However, they’ve been just as permissive in their own end of the rink, with 3.82 goals against and a 72% penalty kill over those 11 games.
With the Lightning entering the game at 3-1-0, powered by a red-hot first line (Guentzel – Point – Kucherov), it makes for quite the defensive test for the Leafs and a big matchup challenge, one that will largely fall to the Matthews line and Rielly-Tanev pairing on home ice. The Matthews-Marner-Tanev combination has yet to concede a goal at five-on-five while absolutely dominating the run of play to the tune of an 87% xGF share in 18 minutes of shared 5v5 time (2-0 in 5v5 goals).
The lone lineup change from the Leafs‘ loss to the Rangers is Max Pacioretty re-entering the fold in place of Ryan Reaves. With the Lightning running a fairly top-heavy look up front, there are opportunities to win the softer matchups down the lineup, of which Pacioretty needs to be a positive contributor tonight.
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
23 Matthew Knies — 34 Auston Matthews — 16 Mitch Marner
74 Bobby McMann — 11 Max Domi — 88 William Nylander
67 Max Pacioretty — 91 John Tavares — 89 Nick Robertson
29 Pontus Holmberg — 64 David Kampf — 18 Steven Lorentz
Defensemen
44 Morgan Rielly — 8 Chris Tanev
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson — 22 Jake McCabe
2 Simon Benoit — 25 Conor Timmins
Goaltenders
41 Anthony Stolarz
35 Dennis Hildeby
Extras: Philippe Myers, Timothy Liljegren, Ryan Reaves
Injured (IR): Joseph Woll
Injured (LTIR): Calle Jarnkrok, Jani Hakanpaa, Connor Dewar, Dakota Mermis
Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines
Forwards
59 Jake Guentzel — 21 Brayden Point — 86 Nikita Kucherov
38 Brandon Hagel — 71 Anthony Cirelli — 41 Mitchell Chaffee
14 Conor Geekie — 20 Nicholas Paul — 13 Cam Atkinson
28 Zemgus Girgensons — 11 Luke Glendening — 23 Michael Eyssimont
Defensemen
77 Victor Hedman — 90 J.J. Moser
27 Ryan McDonagh — 81 Erik Cernak
78 Emil Lilleberg — 43 Darren Raddysh
Goaltenders
#88 Andrei Vasilevskiy
#31 Jonas Johansson
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