what’s most encouraging to me is that 1. he’s not outperforming his xG (i.e. finishing significantly above the quality of his chances) and 2. he’s shooting 18.3% (s% doesn’t count missing the net as a shot, he’s credited with 33 misses so 15/(82+33) = 13%. for comparison his 22 games with tb last year would be 10% down from 12.9% when include misses)
you might remember a lot of commentary on the hawks selling high and that his s% would surely come down from 20+% he was at the time he was traded. but so far the combination of his G – xG and his shooting% have suggested that he really is something like a 25ish goal scorer. of course playing with guys like point and kuch really helps, but you still need the right kind of players to make a line work. like i don’t think cirelli would work as well in hagel’s spot cause he doesn’t seem to have the same offensive instincts as hagel. killorn might, but he doesn’t have the speed hagel does. and so on.
a good chunk of hagel’s goals have come from workman-like goals such as rebounds and i’m sure that willingness to go into the dirty areas to score or create chances was not missed by the FO/coaching staff when they traded for him. in retrospect the fit was there – hagel played with kane, an elite playmaking RW, with the hawks last year, so playing him with the next kane was an easy choice – just couldn’t do it with palat already there.
i of course don’t think he’ll continue to shoot 18%, and i don’t think he’ll continue to have a 12.6% on-ice shooting percentage – but he’s pacing for 67 points rn – and even if he drops to something like 50, that’s insane value for 1.5 for this year and next.
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what’s most encouraging to me is that 1. he’s not outperforming his xG (i.e. finishing significantly above the quality of his chances) and 2. he’s shooting 18.3% (s% doesn’t count missing the net as a shot, he’s credited with 33 misses so 15/(82+33) = 13%. for comparison his 22 games with tb last year would be 10% down from 12.9% when include misses)
you might remember a lot of commentary on the hawks selling high and that his s% would surely come down from 20+% he was at the time he was traded. but so far the combination of his G – xG and his shooting% have suggested that he really is something like a 25ish goal scorer. of course playing with guys like point and kuch really helps, but you still need the right kind of players to make a line work. like i don’t think cirelli would work as well in hagel’s spot cause he doesn’t seem to have the same offensive instincts as hagel. killorn might, but he doesn’t have the speed hagel does. and so on.
a good chunk of hagel’s goals have come from workman-like goals such as rebounds and i’m sure that willingness to go into the dirty areas to score or create chances was not missed by the FO/coaching staff when they traded for him. in retrospect the fit was there – hagel played with kane, an elite playmaking RW, with the hawks last year, so playing him with the next kane was an easy choice – just couldn’t do it with palat already there.
i of course don’t think he’ll continue to shoot 18%, and i don’t think he’ll continue to have a 12.6% on-ice shooting percentage – but he’s pacing for 67 points rn – and even if he drops to something like 50, that’s insane value for 1.5 for this year and next.