The Oilers finished 3rd from the bottom in the 2014-15 season, which gave them an 11.5% chance of winning the draft lottery and getting McDavid. Obviously we all know how that turned out.
We also won the cup that year, which is mostly irrelevant, but also just good to remember that unlike almost every other team in the lottery, we have had a pretty good run, and haven’t been a lottery team, or wildcard at best, like Columbus all decade.
That is the same chance that we have as of this morning, and if Columbus is able to pull even a point out of their final game tonight against the Sabres, we get an extra 2% in the odds.
Reminder that the top 4 picks in this draft are so good that they all likely would’ve gone 1st overall in almost any other year.
Worst case scenario, we have a 71.2% chance to pick in the top 4, and a 30% chance to pick top 3.
I know everyone is upset about how the last few games went, with wins against Calgary, Pittsburgh, and last night’s OT point, but those games don’t mean Bedard, or even Fantilli, can’t be ours. I’m glad we gave Our Captain one last good stretch of games after all the joy and success he’s led us to over the years, even if it did cost us a few percent in the draft odds.
by American-Musician
10 Comments
We got Kane when we had a low chance at 1ova, it happens
Queues the mellow ditty, “Cycles” by Frank Sinatra…
At this stage I will be happy with anything higher than 5th. Sliding to 5th would be a disaster in a year with a loaded top 4 and in which we openly tanked all season. I could live with any of the other three guys behind Bedard. You can win lots of cups with blue chip players that are a notch below the McDavid/Crosby/Ovechkin/Bedards of the world.
I’m more worried about our odds of falling out of the top 4 than our odds of getting Bedard. We were 2 minutes away from those odds being 0 and now we’re sitting at 29% chance of picking 5th.
Coaches and players don’t tank. I’m not upset with them. If I’m gonna be upset with anybody about our current lottery odds, I’m gonna be upset with teams like Calgary who failed to secure a single win against this roster all season or Pittsburgh who had everything to play for at home against a team on the back end of a back-to-back.
Toronto, Carolina and New Jersey are doing quite well now too. That year Marner, Hanafin and Zacha were selected by their respective teams. Other notable first round players were Meier and Rantanen at 9 and 10, Barzal, Connor, Chabot, Svechnikov and Eriksson Ek at 16-20 and Boeser and Konecny at 23 and 24.
Bedard would be ideal but there’s a lot of quality beyond just the first pick.
Welp, now we can only hope for the best on May 8th. Yes, they could’ve gotten the best odds but it is what it is. Luck of the draw. Just hope they don’t fall off of the top 4.
Hoping for Bedard but I believe the gods want him in Anaheim soaking up the California sun even though he’d be a perfect fit in Chicago.
Just hope we don’t drop past 4
So are you saying it’s going to be 8 years before we are relevant again?