Jake Evans Stats Analysis

Disclaimer: Jake Evans is my favorite player. I’ll try to be as objective as possible and refrain from cherry-picking obnoxious stats. But bias might slip so I apologize in advance. 😉

**Bio**

[Jake Evans](https://www.nhl.com/player/jake-evans-8478133) was born on June 2, 1994 in Toronto, Canada. When he was six, his league created a ‘Jake Evans rule’ where [he couldn’t score more than three goals per game](https://theathletic.com/548194/2018/10/29/the-long-winding-road-of-jake-evans-from-reluctant-participant-to-the-cusp-of-the-nhl/). A long time [Leaf fan](https://www.instagram.com/p/bFDIiVosR4/), Evans was drafted in the 7th round, 207th overall by the Montreal Canadiens. He played four years in the NCAA for Notre Dame, earning a degree in management consulting and named team captain in his final season. In his last NCAA year, Evans, with 4 seconds left in the game, scored the [winning goal](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gimH9VFWvs) to send his team to the Frozen Four championship game.

Evans spent two years with the Laval Rocket before being called up by the Habs on [Feb. 6 2020 against the Anaheim Ducks](https://www.nhl.com/canadiens/news/jake-evans-redemption-and-an-nhl-debut/c-314772652). The subtitle of his debut article *’After a rough start to the season, Jake Evans has been on an upward trajectory ever since’* was strangely prophetic of a recurring pattern (we’ll get into that).

Evans signed a 3-year $1.7M extension with the Habs on Oct. 3, 2021. [He will be a UFA at the end of the 2024-25 season when he is 29 years old](https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jake-evans).

On a more personal note, he and his girlfriend adopted a [rescue dog named Winnie](https://www.nhl.com/canadiens/news/catching-up-with-jake-evans/c-335383448), who they think is a shepherd husky mix. A bit disappointed there is no pictures of the pup on his Instagram but nobody’s perfect, I guess.

**Basic Stats**

|Season|GP|TOI|G|A1|A2|Total|P/GP|FOW%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|47|11:50|3|6|4|13|0.28|50.1%|
|21-22|72|15:36|13|11|5|29|0.40|49.8%|
|22-23|53|14:29|2|13|4|19|0.36|52.0%|
|**3 years**|**172**|**14:14**|**18**|**30**|**13**|**61**|**0.35**|**50.6%**|

Evans isn’t much of a goal scorer, getting most of his points from assists (to be more precise, 49% of his points come from primary assists). On face-offs, he maintained a 50.6%, with a high of 52% last season. Had his best offensive production in 21-22 with 29 points and a 0.40 P/PG.

One thing that has been recurrent for Evans are slow offensive starts. [From January 2022 until the end of the season (45 games), he was a 0.51 P/GP](https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=game&dateFrom=2022-01-01&dateTo=2022-05-31&gameType=2&position=F&playerPlayedFor=franchise.1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists&page=0&pageSize=50). This last season, his offensive production started a bit earlier; [from December (32 games) he was a 0.53 P/GP](https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=game&dateFrom=2022-12-01&dateTo=2023-04-20&gameType=2&position=F&playerPlayedFor=franchise.1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists&page=0&pageSize=50). His good buddy Lehkonen was like that as well, [keeping the best for last](https://www.lapresse.ca/sports/hockey/2021-05-11/le-canadien/le-meilleur-d-artturi-lehkonen-pour-la-fin.php).

**Points Distribution**

|Season|EV|PP|SH|With EN|Against EN|Total|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|11|0|2|0|0|13|
|21-22|25|0|1|1|2|29|
|22-23|15|1|2|1|0|19|
|**3 years**|**51**|**1**|**5**|**2**|**2**|**61**|

84% of Evans production in the last 3 years came at even strength. The rest mostly while on the PK.

**Rate of production at Even Strength (no special teams, no empty nets)**

|Season|EV G/60|Rank\*|%|EV A1/60|Rank|%\*|Primary Points/60|Rank\*|%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|0.26|363/393|8%|0.65|137/393|65%|0.91|287/393|27%|
|21-22|0.70|215/438|51%|0.57|195/438|55%|1.27|205/438|53%|
|22-23|0.10|431/437|1%|1.07|**19/437**|96%|1.17|247/437|43%|
|**3 year**|**0.42**|**479/574**|**17%**|**0.74**|**107/574**|**81%**|**1.16**|**298/574**|**48%**|

*\*Rank vs all Forwards with a minimum of 300 minutes played*

Looking at production rate at even strength is important, especially for players like Evans who don’t get Power Play opportunities. In his rookie season, Evans was barely over a 4th line level of production. His offensive production dramatically increased in 2021-22 where he ended up in the 53% percentile in terms of offensive production (so low end second line level). His offensive production wasn’t as impressive in 2022-23 but he still produced at a solid third-line level. Noteworthy was that he finished 19th in the league for primary assists per 60 at EV, which is kind of impressive considering he didn’t exactly play with elite snipers…

**Advanced Stats**

More info on advanced stats terms and concepts: [Beyond the Box Score – An Intro to Hockey Analytics](https://www.nhl.com/kraken/news/beyond-box-score-intro-to-hockey-analytics/c-335471754)

Note: the following results are not adjusted for deployment, quality of competition, quality of teammates, etc.

|On-Ice|CF%|Team Rank|xGF%|Team Rank|xGF/60|Team Rank|xGA/60|Team Rank|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2020-21|51.82|11/13|49.38|12/13|1.98|11/13|2.03|8/13|
|2021-22|46.85|6/15|47.12|5/15|2.44|6/15|2.73|3/15|
|2022-23|45.12|6/17|44.71|5/17|2.33|9/17|2.88|7/17|

While Evans had good possession numbers in his rookie year, they weren’t that great compared to his teammates. His ‘relative to teammates’ stats changed drastically in the next two years. While his possession numbers took a dive, they were good *relative to teammates*. And his results are even more impressive considering his most frequent linemate in the last two years was Rem Pitlick (Rem is the most generous hockey player that ever lived but his one-ice stats are terrible. If you’re wondering who’s in last place in almost all these on-ice stats, it’s Rem).

In the last two seasons, without Rem, [Evans xGF raises to 49.38%](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=MTL&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-01-13&td=2022-05-01&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8479514&p2=8478133&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0), which is quite good considering the team was around 45%.

https://preview.redd.it/6s9k7nlbv3va1.png?width=725&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=660e92b741dae141141620f6228b332e0afc76df

**Advanced Stats – Goals Above Replacement (GAR), RAPM and Player Card**

When stats take into consideration point production, on-ice stats, teammates, opposition and deployment.

https://preview.redd.it/g9gqj2mdx3va1.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=39d1897010ff156852ed99749275c7c77e443cfa

Evans only played a few games in 19-20 so the results are not significant. For the rest, these results shows he performs well compared to other NHL players. Was never close to that dreaded ‘replacement level’ line.

[Z-score of 0 = league average](https://preview.redd.it/ew3pqpfey3va1.png?width=1062&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=065e346da152382132cf006b21be6c8354b99a43)

Evolving-hockey’s RAPM calculations shows he’s been below league average offensively but well above league average defensively. The xGF/60 bar being better than the GF/60 indicates that he lacks finishing skills or is a bit unlucky. Probably both. His 31 minutes on the PP are not even worth mentioning (sad).

​

https://preview.redd.it/yjjs64dhz3va1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=f46c6a4db9e644643a93ab72aa51dbf4ab91cb12

As his RAPM results shows, Evans is an above league average player at even strength. What made him drop to the 44% percentile in his ‘Player Card’ is his work on the PK. It was quite good last season:

https://preview.redd.it/anqkn5zv14va1.png?width=639&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=d198ec59be49006b6960198fe20066049a72da80

but absolutely horrible in 2021-22:

https://preview.redd.it/f14nv86624va1.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=7112eefbd6d6acd959bf56625065fa837961d60e

Such fluctuations between seasons aren’t typical; Evans didn’t suddenly became exponentially better on the PK during the off-season. My take is that he’s more suited to an aggressive PK style than the passive PK strategy that was privileged in 2021-22 by the coaching staff.

**Context and Deployment**

Along with Dvorak, Evans mostly gets defensive deployments ([2021-22](https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/zoneDeploymentRegular/2122/MTL/wrap), [2022-23](https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/zoneDeploymentRegular/2223/MTL/wrap)). As for competition, Evans is bit of a weird case. He seems to play his best hockey when playing against top competition (see also 2021 playoffs). After his rookie year, where he was relatively sheltered, Evans faced the toughest competition in 2021-22 while having a breakthrough season offensively. According to Dylan Waugh at EOTP, [he was our best centre at 5v5](https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/jake-evans-montreal-canadiens-report-card-2021-22-introduction-statistics-model-expected-goals/) and our best forward after Lehkonen.

​

https://preview.redd.it/8klla8a044va1.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=ec59fc0fbaae3f9941bc4a7663161ae4667f8cfe

But for some for some strange reason (to me anyway), after his breakthrough season, he was relegated to 4th line duties in 2022-23, playing with the very sheltered Slafkovsky and Pezzetta. Didn’t go well. He only had 2 points in his first 24 games while mostly playing against 4th liners.

https://preview.redd.it/xhu45gtf44va1.png?width=919&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=e35492139bd0da5e7f350273aa8eb6e57851d892

When Monahan was injured, it provided Evans the opportunity to play higher in the line-up against tougher opposition and with better linemates, including Armia and Dadonov. That’s where Evans really excels. Give him decent wingers, tough defensive assignments and [his line will do just fine](https://hockeyviz.com/game/2022020633/matchups). Playing sheltered minutes on a 4th line is wasting what Evans has best to offer (his defensive play against top lines).

https://preview.redd.it/1zeaxp3i54va1.png?width=908&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=3e0a15eb9bead98f4f95684e965d5fd7b22ff877

**Injuries**

A lot of concerns regarding Evans relates to his injury history. However, when looking at actual games missed because of injuries, it’s actually not that concerning. Last season was the first time he was on Injury Reserve (IR) and prior to that, he missed a total of… ten (10) regular season games due to injuries/illness (some of that due to COVID). Only Suzuki, Hoffman and Anderson played more games than Evans for the habs in the last two seasons.

**Summary**

Evans is a good middle-six player who is at his best when facing tough opposition. His offensive production is solid third line level while being good defensively and playing difficult minutes. He’s an ideal third line shut-down centre in an organization that doesn’t seem to believe in such a role. Unfortunately he’s been labelled an ‘injury prone career 4th liner’ by the fans and media and it’s sticking to him regardless of performance on ice.

My favorite Jake Evans moment was him setting up Romanov in the [4th game of the Stanley Cup Finals](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyElxR3-T5I). He was the [3rd most used forward](https://hockeyviz.com/game/2020030414/homeUsage) for the habs that game.

by MinieC