In a previous thread on this sub-reddit, I tried my best to argue using CapFriendly why we’d both be losing most/all of our UFAs AND have to also trade a couple RFA pieces this off-season ([https://www.reddit.com/r/wildhockey/comments/11yp8bg/comment/jda9lkl/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/wildhockey/comments/11yp8bg/comment/jda9lkl/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)). . . allow me to also toot my own horn briefly, as in that same linked comment I was bang on the money in predicting both the Freddie and Johansson contracts (I predicted Freddie would get 2-2.25 x 4 years; he got 2.1 x 5; and Marcus for 2 x 2 years.
So, is a broken clock right twice a day? Can a blind squirrel find a nut once in awhile? My hubris is about to find out!
Let’s predict the rest of the off-season, using [https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/wild](https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/wild) as usual. We have 83.5m salary cap, with \~60.5m already designated on our roster, PLUS the <15m dead-cap, leaving us 8.2m in cap space, with the following line-up:
* Zucc – Hartmann – Kap
* Boldy – Gaudreau – Johannson
* Foligno – Ek – ?
* ? – Dewar – ?
* Brodin – ?
* Middleton – Spurgeon
* Goose – Merril – ?
* ? and Flower
So we need to fill 3 forward slots, 2 D, and a goalie slot for 8.2 million. Not to mention a little wiggle room for injury call ups. This remains a HARD task.
Here’s the list we have to work with:
* UFAs: Gustav Nyquist, Oskar Sundqvist, Ryan Reaves, Matt Dumba, John Klingberg
* RFAs: Sam Steel, Brandon Duhaime, Mason Shaw, Calen Addison, Filip Gustavsson
* Relevant rookie contracts: Rossi, Faber, Beckman, Walker, Petan, O’Rourke, Hunt, Lambos, Mermis, Wallstedt
Let’s start with easy adjustments, since Faber showed that he belongs up in the show full time (925k cap hit), Rossi (god forbid) will be ready for prime-time (863k cap hit), and we can hopefully address Shaw’s RFA status with a close to league min deal (\~750k). Let’s round up and say 2.7m. Logic is simple here: Rossi and Faber are part of our core going forward, and Shaw is an excellent 4th liner and on the PK with Dewar.
I presume GMBG and our front office’s singular focus right now remains re-signing Gus Bus; I still think a shorter term bridge deal in the 3 mil/year range makes most sense for both parties and could get it done.
So, for those following the math, we’ve got 2.5 million remaining after bringing up Rossi, Faber, and re-signing Shaw and Gus Bus. We are still short 1 forward and 1 defenseman, and need some space for a 13th forward/injury call-ups!
With this context, most decisions are easy to make. Klingberg and Nyquist cost too much – they are gone. We can’t afford to pay premium dollars for a 4th liner (we gotta get league minimum here), so Reaves is going, too (some team is going to pull a moronic Flyers DesLauriers contract). Similar logic for Sundqvist. Sorry y’all! I’ve been a Nyquist fan his whole career. I’d love for us to find a way, but we aren’t taking on a contract for a guy who is gonna pull 4 million on the open market.
To me, this also clears up (mostly) our remaining RFA decisions. Steel is gone, Addison is gonna get traded, and I suspect Duhaime will get traded as well unless we can give him a 1-2 year bridge at around 1 million/year.
Our 7th D will be a league min player: Hunt or O’Rourke if they make a big jump, or Mermis otherwise, and our remaining bottom 6 winger will go to a guy like Walker or Beckman.
The biggest caveat that I can see to this plan would be IF Goose ends up also being traded. However, if this happens, I believe that result would be using his entire 2 million/annual contract to cover a team-friendly Dumba deal. I don’t think it makes sense to lose Dumba and trade Goose, as that would force Faber into a top 4 role immediately and we would be obligated to also pull up two of our prospects or AHL’ers to fill our bottom pair with Merrill. I think that hurts our team identity too much (defensively sound), and as good as Faber was this spring, I’d like to see him get a little shelter/protection with his minutes to start the year.
This leaves us with the following roster, and just under 1 million remaining:
* Zucc – Hartmann – Kap
* Boldy – Rossi – Johannson
* Foligno – Ek – Freddie
* Shaw – Dewar – Walker or Beckman
* Brodin – Goose (or Dumba)
* Middleton – Spurgeon
* Faber – Merril – Mermis
* Gus and Fleury
by shaman0610
9 Comments
We cant afford Nyquist
…..unless we get some GMBG magic and he agrees to get paid in magic beans in order to stay on Team Sweden
We could trade Foligno. Not saying we should necessarily, but there are ways
I understand the motivation to try to figure out whats going to happen but I think this offseason has too many variables to even try to guess.
I dont think its likely Nyquist is brought back but it also wouldnt surprise me at all and you could say the same thing about 10 or more other moves the Wild could make – some of which are mutually exclusive and others which would need to happen together.
I honestly think Billy is mostly going to follow whatever value he sees available which is going to be dictated by the market and which is probably impossible to predict right now.
At the press conference Billy did sound set on keeping the Gus/Flower tandem. I thought they might consider trading him but I guess we can probably trash that possibility.
Also from how they appeared together and the fact Dean has years left on his contract its pretty clear that Dean-o aint going nowhere. The rest of the staff though, who knows?
I don’t think Shaw will be ready in time for the start of the season given how late in the season his injury was. So while they likely resign him to the minimum and let him rehab he will also be on LTIR to start the season. Which doesn’t count against the cap but means someone else needs to be signed to take that spot.
I think Guerin will also want to go into the season with some cap space, so he can accrue enough to add at the deadline if the team is doing well. Not sure if that’s possible but it seems like that’s his strategy to hit the playoffs with a roster that’s closer to everyone else’s cap.
I disagree with this assessment. Like, I really do believe we will trade Zuccarello. That frees up $6mil in cap and provides all kinds of possibilities to put together a lineup worthy of a playoff push.
It’s a really tough thing to do to Zuccy, but if we are bottom table come trade deadline. He’s gone. Why not save that cap space now and build a better bridge team for 2024-25?
Nyquist could easily fit into that top line.
Edit: Maybe the cap space goes up $4 mil rather than the $1 mil currently being predicted.
Fleury or Gus have to be traded to bring in Gus or anyone above like Steel and Shaw.
Very sketchy that Shaw will be ready to start the season, heck he might not be NHL ready the entire season.
And unless Marco Rossi gets significantly stronger, both on his edges and just in general he didn’t show any signs of being NHL ready next season — he got pushed across the ice like an ice scraper at the end of this season.
I don’t think we can afford Nyquist and I don’t know if the Wild can even afford Gustafsson and not lose at a pretty high clip. Wild have some pretty big holes to fill.
I would much much much rather have Nyquist instead of Johansson. And Rossi as a top 6 forward is weak.