Brendan Gallagher Stats Analysis

**Bio**

[Brendan Gallagher](https://cms.nhl.bamgrid.com/images/photos/340898152/1200×630/cut.jpg) was born on May 6, 1992 in Edmonton, Alberta. A 5’9″ right shot winger, Gallagher was drafted in the 5th round, 147th overall by the Montreal Canadiens in in 2010. He played his first game against the Florida Panthers on January 20, 2013 registering an assist and scored his [first goal against the New Jersey Devils on January 27, 2013](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqMzqL9WpQw). From 2018-2019 to 2020-21, Gallagher was part of the [best 5v5 line in the NHL](https://twitter.com/AZadarski/status/1321149836339675138), alongside Phillip Danault and Tomáš Tatar.

[Shauna Denis described Gallagher as such](https://www.nhl.com/canadiens/news/brendan-gallagher-10-years-later/c-340898314):

>Throwing his body around with abandon while nearly permanently implanting himself in opposing blue paint over the last decade has helped cement his reputation as a gritty, heart-and-soul leader in the lineup, and someone who has never taken a shift – let alone a game – off.

As per [CapFriendly](https://www.capfriendly.com/players/brendan-gallagher), Gallagher played the 2nd year of a 6-year, $39M contract with an AAV of $6.5M. He will be a free agent at the end of 2026-27.

**Basic Stats**

|Season|GP|TOI|G|A1|A2|Total|P/GP|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|35|15:01|14|3|6|23|0.66|
|21-22|56|15:01|7|12|5|24|0.43|
|22-23|37|14:17|8|5|1|14|0.38|
|**3 years**|**128**|**14:48**|**29**|**20**|**12**|**61**|**0.48**|

What is very noticeable about these stats is the small number of games played. Out of a total of 220 regular season games, Gallagher only played 128. His PPG went from 0.66 to 0.38 in the last 3 years. You would think he’s declining and possibly washed up, isn’t it? Let’s take a closer look.

**Points Distribution**

|Season|EV|PP|Against EN|Total|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|19|3|1|23|
|21-22|14|7|3|24|
|22-23|12|2|0|14|
|**3 years**|**45**|**12**|**4**|**61**|

In the last 3 years, Gallagher scored 74% of his points at event strength, 20% on the power play.

**Rate of production at Even Strength (no special teams, no empty nets)**

|Season|EV G/60|Rank|%|EV A1/60|Rank|%|Primary Points/60|Rank|%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|1.48|4/393|99%|0.4|253/393|36%|1.88|42/393|89%|
|21-22|0.09|436/438|0%|0.79|95/438|78%|0.88|346/438|21%|
|22-23|1.09|68/437|84%|0.54|227/437|48%|1.63|97/437|78%|
|**3 years**|**0.76**|**198/574**|**66%**|**0.61**|**197/574**|**66%**|**1.37**|**185/574**|**68%**|

*\** *rank vs all forwards with a minimum of 300 minutes played*

Gallagher went from the 99% percentile in goal scored in 2020-21 at EV to 0% the next year. Among other factors, he was extremely unlucky in 2021-22, scoring only once out of a total 12 expected goals. He saw a return to previous form in 2022-23 with 1.09 goals per 60, 84% percentile among other NHL forwards. He also scored 8 goals out of an expected 8. In terms of primary points last season, he ranked 97th out of 437 players, very border line first line rate of production (please take notice the term ‘rate’). Gallagher actually did a bit of a come back at 5v5!

But if he did so great at EV last season, why the overall production & ppg are so… underwhelming?

* Because of injuries (only played 35 games)
* Poor production on the power play (only two points)
* Less secondary assists and empty nets freebies than in previous seasons (secondary assists are ‘[a mostly random attribution that aren’t reflective of a player’s true offensive impact](https://www.tsn.ca/the-noise-surrounding-secondary-assists-1.1134501)’.)

**Advanced Stats – On Ice**

More info on advanced stats terms and concepts: [Beyond the Box Score – An Intro to Hockey Analytics](https://www.nhl.com/kraken/news/beyond-box-score-intro-to-hockey-analytics/c-335471754)

Note: the following results are not adjusted for deployment, quality of competition, quality of teammates, etc.

​

|On-Ice|CF%|Team Rank|xGF%|Team Rank|xGF/60|Team Rank|xGA/60|Team Rank|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2020-21|61.5|1/13|62.28|1/13|2.94|1/13|1.78|1/13|
|2021-22|49.75|2/15|49.91|2/15|2.90|1/15|2.91|9/15|
|2022-23|48.48|1/17|46.85|3/17|2.38|8/17|2.7|2/17|

Gallagher on-ice results are amazing\*. He ranked 1st in all categories in 2020-21. Ranked very well compared to teammates the following two years.

*\*a bit of a disclaimer. Gallagher’s style of play favors possession. Possession/play driving results are based based on shots attempts. Gallagher attempts to shoots from everywhere all the time, even though the shot might be low quality and not likely to result in a goal. Quantity over quality. It may not be a bad strategy, but it may be overrating his on-ice results. So to keep in mind ;)*

What’s impressive in Gallagher’s on-ice results is that he spent most of the last two seasons with Dvorak and Hoffman, two of the worst play drivers in the league.

https://preview.redd.it/t16a6ti7ypxa1.png?width=1700&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=b72bdbecba9919cb84841da4631f2a6c1eff9341

Without Dvorak and Hoffman, Gallagher’s xGF in the last two years rises to 53.58%, way above the team average of around 45%.

[Source: Natural Stats Trick](https://preview.redd.it/nt1a55v20qxa1.png?width=822&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=530cbe77775ef6a4cd7bcab7138b2b98659fb111)

**Advanced Stats – Goals Above Replacement (GAR), RAPM and Player Card**

When stats take into consideration point production, on-ice stats, teammates, opposition and deployment.

https://preview.redd.it/jz5fb8t01qxa1.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=db0baa5939c0771369bf78ea71f20b060e966db4

Gallagher had some amazing years in Montreal but his ‘GAR’ results has been declining in the last two years. Injuries were a factor, but perhaps the change in linemates quality was also a factor…?

[z-score of 0 = league average](https://preview.redd.it/f1lblugu1qxa1.png?width=1700&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=ef4f490841afff80aab801eb368468030fb0dc7c)

As his on-ice results shows, Gallagher is a great play driver at 5v5 (he’s well above league average in all categories) but might need some work on the power play.

​

https://preview.redd.it/csfd77z42qxa1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=f9525905c0584f9137b5cbd45010e67114ffd066

Gallagher is one of the few habs player in the ‘blue’ in terms of defensive impacts. There’s a reason he was able to face the toughest opposition while playing with Danault and Tatar. Without his long time linemates, his role changed.

**Context**

Before Danault and Tatar left for free agency, the Tatar-Danault-Gallagher line faced the toughest opposition and generated a lot of offence. As mentioned previously, they were the best 5v5 line in the NHL.

[\(these guys are almost braking the scales\)](https://preview.redd.it/6g47yt7z9qxa1.png?width=920&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=389309dd732771e9fb61ccd63350ea731b37756b)

In the last two seasons, Gallagher saw his role diminished. From being a first liner playing against top line, he’s now playing on the 2nd or 3rd line against weaker competition.

https://preview.redd.it/9thz3awl4qxa1.png?width=906&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=8fca410619c55a78ceffa0e45aa833147a542a38

**Summary**

Gallagher saw a big drop in production since his days alongside Danault and Tatar. He had quite a miserable year in 2021-22 where he was quite possibly the unluckiest player in the NHL. However his underlying numbers and play driving abilities are still good and his 5v5 production rate saw a return to respectability in 2022-23. If he can remain healthy, I believe he can still be a key element to a successful team.

In addition, it’s worth mentioning he’s a great leader, giving his 100% every night. I’ll always remember when he [lead his teammates to honor Guy Lafleur.](https://twitter.com/ArponBasu/status/1518410397333823494) He’s got amazing work ethics, respect for Canadiens history and an [example to follow for our young players](https://twitter.com/RDSca/status/1518613303093772289).

by MinieC