[JFresh] the sport is so nuts. if one bounce goes different in a game 7 overtime the panthers are an irrelevant 8th seed. now they’re a model that a struggling contender needs to replicate
the sport is so nuts. if one bounce goes different in a game 7 overtime the panthers are an irrelevant 8th seed. now they're a model that a struggling contender needs to replicate
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) May 16, 2023
by albundy66
22 Comments
Or if the bruins hold off for ONE MINUTE, or if Marchand hits the net on the breakaway, or if the Bruins dont blow a 3-1 series LEAD. Many bounces went Floridas way and keep doing so. They could be that cinderella team
There is more luck involved than people want to admit. A good portion of goals are scored by playing human plinko in front of the net and a lot of amazing saves are because the goalie flailed their limbs in the right spot.
That being said there is a lot of skill involved to even get the shots off or to jump across the crease.
It’ll be interesting to see how the narrative changes if Florida loses in the next round
And if ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we’d all have a Happy Christmas
I don’t remember anyone saying there’s any team that’s a model that needs to be replicated. They are talking about possibly looking at one single trade as a framework for one single other trade.
Sounds like this fancy stats dude is just miffed that his models are useless these playoffs, and projecting that into nothingburger tweets.
No offense to analytics. Great tools. But this guy lives and breathes them
Even more importantly, if Pittsburgh doesn’t blow a layup game against Chicago then the Panthers don’t even make the playoffs and ended up giving up a super high draft pick for Ben Chiarot
I don’t like the idea of replicating Florida’s team. If Bobrovsky becomes even slightly human, they aren’t getting through the Canes, and they wouldn’t have made it through the Leafs or the Bruins. Their forward structure is not what won them games.
This is why I don’t think we should be giving up on Dubas or the core. Building a contender is about giving yourself opportunities at the playoffs.
This team is comfortably qualifying right now and several long standing contenders have fallen away. I didn’t like the 2nd round as much as anyone else but a combination of poor play at key times and luck and officiating and everything else contributes to going out.
This core is actually aging into a really key part of their careers. Still right at the peak but with enough scars and experience to lean on. Winning round 1 was a huge emotional release for them. We all hoped it would help them by playing with less pressure in round 2. However, it may well be that we see that release next year. They may win round 1 against Buffalo or Ottawa or Detroit and do so without the huge emotions it brought this year.
There’s a lot to be said for luck for sure. But just as important as anything you have to get hot at the right time of year. And right now the Panthers are hot.
Didn’t Vancouver do this after they lost in 2011…it went so well for them…..
Just fire Keefe that is all.
Yeah, just replicate injuring key players on the opposing team and depend on the refs to give just a couple penalties per game, only 2 min minors for major infractions, after that though it’s a total free for all.
Bounce? If the referees referee any number of games the outcome changes.
The narrative that Florida got lucky vs Boston isn’t true.
First, hockey is a game where you naturally will benefit and also suffer from luck, that’s true. But it’s lazy to say that a team that played a 1st seed to a mostly even series was merely lucky.
But Florida didn’t just goalie Boston for one, Lyon was pretty meh in that series and Bobrovsky wasn’t stellar either.
Florida was the slightrly better team at 5v5:
– 19 to 16 in xG, outscored 20-14 in real goals.
– CF% was damn near equal: 50.5 to 49.5 in favour of Boston
– 75 to 62 High Danger Chances in favour of Florida
Florida beat Boston with a good forecheck and eeked out the posession game. It’s only when you factor in Boston’s powerplay that the numbers even out and Boston only merely had a good powerplay in the regular season so it wasn’t as dangerous as the Edmonton one.
Boston was this year’s best transition team according ot JFresh himself so instead of trying to beat them with the rush, Florida opted to bypass them in transition with a simple dump and chase game. Vs Toronto, they did the exact opposite, Toronto rarely gets dominated in posession – Carolina and this most recent Tampa series are the only two times where I remember teams that did it to us regularly, so Florida opted to utilize the rush more.
The ability to diversify your offense is important in the playoffs. The teams that lost in round 1 all had pretty one dimensional – even if they were good, offenses.
– Colorado – Heavily reliant on transition and no depth.
– Tampa – Tried to outposess one of the best cycling teams in the league. Despite winning the battle, Florida’s best line is actually a transition heavy line – Kuch, Point and Stamkos. They weren’t able to leverage that enough as we bottled them up.
– Boston – Best transition defense in the league but despite their reputations for being tenacious forecheckers, they actually are a finesse based offense. Hall, Marchand, Bergeron – even DeBrusk, aren’t like Lucic and Horton.
– Rangers – Rely on Shesterkin and beat you on the rush.
Florida’s model is not gonna work the moment bobrovsky comes back down to earth
It’s a good take, but more relevant to Florida’s storyline than ours. Would our situation be any different if Boston 4-0 or 4-1’d us in any order? Are we saying if Boston crushes us we are supposed to be in awe of how good they were in the regular season so that makes it okay? I don’t buy it.
I see it as we *got through* round one. We didn’t dominate. We didn’t do it convincingly. If anything I’d say that we got lucky and the bounces went our way more than they didn’t. We looked terrible in round two. The eye test across the board was a massive failure. Who cares if it was the Panthers or the Bruins? I’m not the cup or bust type of person but we need to want more than this.
If we actually looked good in all five round two games then it would be a different story.
What?
Florida can easily just miss the playoffs next year. They snuck in this year. I don’t think we should be using them as a role model for anything.
This post to me feels like innuendo for ‘Leafs just got unlucky’. You can only be unlucky for so long and it is a hackneyed topic at this point.
Maybe they got a bit lucky to make the playoffs but I think they deserve credit for taking the Bruins the distance and ultimately winning the series. Even taking the Bruins to 6 games is an accomplishment after the season they had. If they can beat the Bruins they can beat anyone and win the cup
Only reason that dog shit team won was because they weren’t being penalized.fix that part and let the better team skate all over them.
Same with the Matthew Tkachuk slobbering. Dude had 1 great series vs. Boston. He was a bum for the Flames in the playoffs for all but his final season. Now he is a playoff performer and more valuable than Auston Matthews. Give me a break, I would take Mikko Rantanen over Tkachuk any day.
Precisely why blowing it all up doesn’t make sense right?
This is why this sport is one of the smallest in all pro sports. No one understands the rules and people from Toronto dictate how a game hoes.
Twitter is so bad. But respect the smarm-take effort.
Florida are an example of a team that went through a similar experience to the Leafs, and made a trade that has, so far, worked out for them.
Similar examples: Tampa, Montreal, Boston (from a while ago). There aren’t a lot of examples, but they’re out there.