Shanon calling out the haters and the haters don’t even watch the video and just cry about the refs.
LarsSantiago
I think this proves money puck is not always a good model
TheEvilTwin1
Yea I watched the video and using the monkey puck “deserve to win o-meter” is kinda a bad premise.
The metric that money puck uses is clearly flawed and while I like THG he constructed a straw man with that, but in a sense I get that because he’s there to get views and likes.
One of the things he neglected to talk about in his video that he’s very well aware of, is that Vegas is dominant 5v5.
I suspect the deserve to win o meter puts too much of an emphasis on special teams and SOG (one of the things THG consistently reminds people is that SOG don’t matter in these playoffs). I also wonder how money puck weights SOG, do all shots count the same or does include a measure of how good a chance is? An over emphasis on the importance of special teams play would account for the Oilers numbers, same with Winnipeg it seems. Then add in an over reliance on SOG and I think that starts to shed some light on these numbers.
If it was weighed more to favor 5v5 play those numbers would be different and I suspect would more closely resemble what’s actually happened
It would be intersting if THG made a video about the impact on 5v5 play and how effective that has been as a predictor for success.
AshCan10
I love that he’s calling out the haters. It’s about time someone who is impartial did that
lobsterpillow
I think moneypuck and other models don’t properly appreciate shot blocking. Many stat nerds view it as a neutral event, saying it is an indication that the other team had possession, was driving play, etc.
In this year’s regular season, Alec Martinez was a beast. 6th in the all time list for shot blocks in a single season. Brayden McNabb was 40th and Alex Pietrangelo 99th! THREE guys in the top 100 all time list in the same season!
This is a huge component in our defense and I believe this is part of why models underrate the VGK.
VGK are about to make moneypuck a thing of the past.
Ewanar
Good to be lucky. Lucky to be good.
SiliconeArmadildo
People seem to forget that moneypuck is sponsored by an association of US and Canadian sports books. That means their predictions are for the benefit of their sponsors and can not be trusted as unbiased. Think of it like this. If you’re operating some kind of broadcast and Company X who sells a product that your audience has interest in is your sponsor, you’re not going to include content that harms your sponsors’ interests.
Moneypuck’s sponsors are sports bookmakers, and their business model is to win a percentage of their handle, no matter which team wins. They use Moneypuck to influence betting action at the window to achieve that. No one is doing anything out of some altruistic belief in science or truth. They’re motivated by money and nothing else.
topgun966
It’s always X team is underperforming instead of respect Vegas smothering and relentless defense and forecheck. Almost all our forwards are 2 way defense first forwards. They have no problems getting in front of shots and shut down the middle of the ice
9 Comments
Shanon calling out the haters and the haters don’t even watch the video and just cry about the refs.
I think this proves money puck is not always a good model
Yea I watched the video and using the monkey puck “deserve to win o-meter” is kinda a bad premise.
The metric that money puck uses is clearly flawed and while I like THG he constructed a straw man with that, but in a sense I get that because he’s there to get views and likes.
One of the things he neglected to talk about in his video that he’s very well aware of, is that Vegas is dominant 5v5.
I suspect the deserve to win o meter puts too much of an emphasis on special teams and SOG (one of the things THG consistently reminds people is that SOG don’t matter in these playoffs). I also wonder how money puck weights SOG, do all shots count the same or does include a measure of how good a chance is? An over emphasis on the importance of special teams play would account for the Oilers numbers, same with Winnipeg it seems. Then add in an over reliance on SOG and I think that starts to shed some light on these numbers.
If it was weighed more to favor 5v5 play those numbers would be different and I suspect would more closely resemble what’s actually happened
It would be intersting if THG made a video about the impact on 5v5 play and how effective that has been as a predictor for success.
I love that he’s calling out the haters. It’s about time someone who is impartial did that
I think moneypuck and other models don’t properly appreciate shot blocking. Many stat nerds view it as a neutral event, saying it is an indication that the other team had possession, was driving play, etc.
In this year’s regular season, Alec Martinez was a beast. 6th in the all time list for shot blocks in a single season. Brayden McNabb was 40th and Alex Pietrangelo 99th!
THREE guys in the top 100 all time list in the same season!
This is a huge component in our defense and I believe this is part of why models underrate the VGK.
https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/records/most-blocked-shots-in-one-season-by-nhl-players.html
VGK are about to make moneypuck a thing of the past.
Good to be lucky. Lucky to be good.
People seem to forget that moneypuck is sponsored by an association of US and Canadian sports books. That means their predictions are for the benefit of their sponsors and can not be trusted as unbiased. Think of it like this. If you’re operating some kind of broadcast and Company X who sells a product that your audience has interest in is your sponsor, you’re not going to include content that harms your sponsors’ interests.
Moneypuck’s sponsors are sports bookmakers, and their business model is to win a percentage of their handle, no matter which team wins. They use Moneypuck to influence betting action at the window to achieve that. No one is doing anything out of some altruistic belief in science or truth. They’re motivated by money and nothing else.
It’s always X team is underperforming instead of respect Vegas smothering and relentless defense and forecheck. Almost all our forwards are 2 way defense first forwards. They have no problems getting in front of shots and shut down the middle of the ice