Offseason content. I thought it would be neat to look at one part of the game and predict whether the team will be better or worse next year. I thought I would start with how all games start — *the faceoff*.
Players get better at faceoffs with experience. Domi just crossed the 50%+ threshold on faceoffs for the first time in his career last season. He did quite well and ranked 42nd in the league among players that took at least 200 faceoffs. Not defensively sound enough to be a full time C, but the Leafs have a solid option in the dot with Domi. If he doesn’t play in the top 6, he could provide great value as a 3rd line winger that takes the draw, then moves to the wing.
With 32 teams in the league, you have a *relatively good* faceoff man if they rank above the median by line (above 16 for line 1, 48 for line 2, 80 for line 3, 112 for line 4).
Tavares: 10th 58.31%, best faceoff guy on most teams
Domi: 42nd 53.68%, 2nd best faceoff guy on most teams
Matthews: 54th 52.43%, 2nd best faceoff guy on some teams
Kämpf: 64th 51.53%, 3rd best faceoff guy on all teams
Lafferty: 70th 51.13%, 3rd best faceoff guy on most teams
Keep in mind Kerfoot was terrible on draws (44.83%). So Domi is a huge upgrade there as a middle six faceoff option. Gambrell and Holmberg are even worse than Kerfoot so none should play 4C. If they do, at least have Lafferty take the draw.
Faceoffs were already a strength with the Leafs ranking 4th in team percentage last year. My prediction is that the Leafs will **improve** at faceoffs next year. This is mainly due to Domi replacing Kerfoot, a full year of Lafferty and Matthews being a year older.
https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/nhl-team-most-faceoff-win-percentage
https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/nhl-forwards-stats.html
by postmodern_lasagna
9 Comments
Yes they will, or they will not.
Should look at even strength fo%, having an extra guy on the pp or being down a man on the pk doesn’t really make someone better at face offs but just in better or worse situations.
The fascination with faceoff numbers still astounds me to this day
There really are fans who will diminish the importance of winning puck possession.
Pound for Pound the dumbest thing I have seen from r/Leafs and some people here actually think Nylander is a better hockey player than Marner.
It’s nice to start with the puck, but what this team needs more than anything is guys that will get the puck. Hyman, Bunting, Brown etc. Domi and Bert should help, but a lot of it comes back to existing guys and Keefe.
I don’t profess to know what aspects control a game but as I do check the reddit game threads more than several times on game nights, one thing stands out to me. If the Leafs are controlling the shot clock, they are usually controlling the face-off circle. In my opinion, because I am certainly not a stats expert, if the Leafs are controlling the Face-off dot they are usually in the lead. When I check in on the game night stats on reddit the first thing I look for is how the Leafs are doing on the shot clock and the face-off dot. It’s not broken down into zone %,s just overall. As A hockey non expert I think face-off dominance, in most cases, are extremely important.
#FACEOFFS?! WE’RE TALKIN’ ABOUT FACEOFFS?!!!
*psssshhh, I hope we can just win a game.
They seem to lose “key” faceoffs. Like when they are down by a goal and in their zone after an icing etc. I hope they break that habit.
I think it will remain relatively the same. Sure losing Acciari and ROR sucks, but Matthews, JT, and Kampf are still very good in the dot and if all else fails our forwards are pretty good at stripping the puck away to take possession even after a botched F/O draw