The Ross Colton deal is officially done at 4x$4M, did the Avs make out well or overpay? Where should expectations be set? The DNVR Avalanche Podcast talks Colton and also dives into the five tiers of Colorado prospects.
Intro: 0:00
Ross Colten’s contract-1:30
Can Colten boost his production?-7:30
Do the Avs still need one more guy?-17:10
Top 5 Current Avs contracts- 22:00
What to do with Ben Meyers- 29:20
Prospect Pyramid!- 37:10
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2 Comments
$4M is absolutely an overpayment for a 3C. What’s the plan here?
Whatever it is, it doesn’t make much sense. They’re going to be in cap hell in 2 years when their 1/2LD Byram is RFA and their 1RW Rantanen, 2C Johansen, and starting goaltender Georgiev are all UFA.
That means their best known chance at winning another Cup is in the next 2 years. So why are they overpaying their 3C for that window?
They evidently had to pay for the term of this contract, so why didn’t they simply give him 2 or 3 years at his market value, $3-3.5M?
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Let’s think about what this means in the immediate for the Avs:
they now have $2.8M left in cap space with Landeskog on LTIR. So once they sign Meyers, they’ll have about $2M left to fill out their roster. Ideally, that would mean a 3RW and a 3R/LD.
Unfortunately, with Colton’s contract, the most they’ll be able to pay one player is $1.25M. That maximum will make it difficult to attract of the few decent free agents left to Colorado. Let alone a second, who would at that point have to take $<1M.
So what this essentially means is the Avs will be adding only one more quality player this summer.
That’s the difference the $.5-1M overpayment for Colton makes. We could have had a complete third line and a complete defense, now we will only have one or the other.
Looking toward the season and the year after, Colton’s contract is sure to continue to be a burden on the Avs, although it’s too far out to tell how.
It could mean getting less helpful or fewer players at the two trade deadlines, it could mean having to call up the cheapest and worst players when there are injuries, and it could even cost the Avs the ability to resign Devon Toews next summer if Landeskog comes back.
For the remainder of this off-season, as well as over these next two years, the Colton contract will be a straight jacket on the Avalanche. To put it bluntly, It could be the difference between winning and losing.
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Now, let’s think about what the deal means in the long term.
With so much uncertainty after year 2 the of the contract, it would be nice to have some roster spots be known for years 3 and 4. I understand that concern, and this 4 year Colton deal alleviates it.
But between Jean-Luc Foudy and Calum Ritchie, it is more than likely that by year 3, the Avs will have a young and cheap player who can step right into the 3C role. There was no need to pay for term in this contract when there will likely be a cheap 3C option readily available.
Maybe Colorado is hoping Colton will become their 2C in years 3 and 4.
All that would be is wishful thinking.
Colton mostly played on the wing in Tampa Bay, so it will already be an adjustment to play center in Colorado, let alone playing center and on the 2nd line. Colton would have to take a massive, unlikely leap to pull that off.
(I should also point out that if they’re betting on the upside with Colton, they just just traded away a player with more upside at the same position in Newhook.)
In the long term, the Colton contract is either the needless bolstering of a position that wasn’t a long-term concern, or just a hope and a prayer with little grounding in reality.
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Oh, and did I mention this contract includes no-trade clauses? Yep, it’s got a full NTC in year 2 and a modified NTC in years 2 and 3. So if things go wrong with Colton and the Avs want to get out of his overpriced contract, they might not even be able to trade him.
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So, again I ask, what’s the thinking from the Avalanche with this deal for Colton?
This contract is a relatively small yet critical overpayment, which could be detrimental to the Avs’ chances in the short term, and is entirely unnecessary in the long term.
I really hope there’s a good answer, so what’s the plan?
What makes it more palatable is that it also buys UFA years. Excited to see what the 3rd line looks like this year. Seeing Colton as a Compher replacement, if he can stand pat with Compher's average points per season, this will feel like a good contract.