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Hacking the NFL Draft with Moneyball



NFL Draft 2023 – Moneyball is a catch-all term for using analytics to build a professional sports roster. Josh Norris is no Brad Pitt, but he did identify one simple trick to evaluate offensive linemen for the NFL Draft with nearly 15 years of data to back it up. NFL Combine OL that have recorded a 4.47 20-yard shuttle or better have gone on to start 84% of their career NFL games. Incredible, and super valuable for the 2023 NFL Draft

Follow Josh on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JoshNorris

Full OL Short Shuttle Table, and other important Combine nuggets: https://underdognetwork.com/football/2022-nfl-combine-why-it-matters

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30 Comments

  1. If you can be a starter at any position in the NFL you’ve beaten out so many other players to earn that spot. I agree. Anyone who can win a starting spot is definitely special. Funny how that drill translates to success in the league.

  2. Looks like you've uncovered a single variable with a strong correlation to your target outcome variable (starts.) Congratulations. It's cool. Have you tried creating models with multiple variables, and if not, would you like to?

  3. whats the result for OL that were above that treshold? without that comparison the numbers are kinda pointless.

  4. After bench reps the shuttle and cone times were always my next qualifications for drafting OL in Madden. Can't be a plodder or a tree.

    …unless you're Trent Brown. That's my guy.

  5. Boys. I’m concerned, with our darling Josh McCown being hired by the Panthers (keep pounding), does this mean we can expect scheme to not feature double Josh’s?

  6. With the cut off being 4.47. What does it look like at 4.5/4.6. As you have taken a arbitrary cut off and found a result which is very interesting but always worried when people do this with continuous variables.

  7. Unless I'm wrong, many of these hits were for interior offensive line and not as many tackles. I would think that it is because of the nature of the positions and that this is a better metric for guards and centers, but I may be wrong. Either way, great statistical find.

  8. Interesting, and worthy of more investigation. Several questions come to mind, that I'll put aside for the moment.

    Suggestion box: don't put videos like this on a channel about fantasy football. I literally came this close to skipping over it.

  9. Just buzzing through some data, and my first correction makes your numbers better, not worse. Brandon Fusco ran a 4.43 shuttle at the 2011 combine, was drafted in the 6th, and started 87 of 90 games.

  10. UCLA G Jon Gaines II (4.45 shuttle)… You just made THE LIST! The only OL prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft to do so. Congratulations on your upcoming career as an 8-year starter.

  11. I would've kept this secret to myself and used it to become a high-dollar draft consultant with the Midas Touch. 😂

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