An abnormally high shooting percentage during a single season is one of the most common signs that a player’s goal-scoring rate could slow down moving forward. Over multi-season stretches, even many of the top snipers struggle to convert on 16-17 percent or more of their shots. That means when a player like Chris Kreider, for example, scores 52 goals in 2021-22 on the back of a 20.2 percent shooting clip, we usually hypothesize that he’ll slow down the following year, as he did last season with 36 goals.
There are countless examples of teams that got burned by making bets on players with inflated shooting percentages.
When Tage Thompson broke out for 38 goals in 2021-22, it seemingly came out of nowhere. I still believed in Thompson as a player, and didn’t mind the big extension the Sabres signed him to, but heading into last season, I figured he’d be closer to a consistent 30-goal scorer rather than flirting with 40.
Why? Well, Thompson had nearly tripled his previous five-on-five shooting clip in 2021-22 and hadn’t flashed elite goal-scoring potential at lower levels, especially at even strength. As The Athletic’s Jonathan Willis had pointed out, Thompson had a pedestrian 10.6 career shooting percentage in the AHL against minor-league goalies and in his draft year, he scored just one even-strength goal in 36 games for the University of Connecticut.
Thompson made that regression talk look silly by exploding for 47 goals last season. Of course, there are factors such as Thompson’s positional shift to center, improved linemate quality, confidence, skill and rare 6-foot-6 frame that probably weren’t weighed heavily enough.
But there’s also the point that Thompson’s 15 percent shooting clip from 2021-22 was high but not crazy. This wasn’t a case of a player scoring at a ridiculous 25 percent clip; 15 percent is actually somewhat reasonable for an elite sniper to maintain year in, year out. We just weren’t sure he could maintain it because Thompson’s previous track record didn’t hint at star potential.
The lesson isn’t to ignore shooting percentage as a signal. That would be very foolish and lead to tons of regrettable mistakes — Thompson is a very special case and the overwhelming majority of players won’t follow his career arc. Rather, the lesson is that we shouldn’t go too far on the other side of the pendulum either in blindly assuming a player with a spiked shooting percentage is bound to regress. Occasionally, there’s more than meets the eye.
helikoopter
Hockey’s public analytics wrong? Since when?
Tage was a guy that clearly had broken out had anyone watched. He was faster, stronger, more confident, an altogether different player. Trying to use a spreadsheet to understand that is just foolish. I’m glad Tage can be yet another example of egg on the analytics communities face.
2 Comments
## Tage Thompson
An abnormally high shooting percentage during a single season is one of the most common signs that a player’s goal-scoring rate could slow down moving forward. Over multi-season stretches, even many of the top snipers struggle to convert on 16-17 percent or more of their shots. That means when a player like Chris Kreider, for example, scores 52 goals in 2021-22 on the back of a 20.2 percent shooting clip, we usually hypothesize that he’ll slow down the following year, as he did last season with 36 goals.
There are countless examples of teams that got burned by making bets on players with inflated shooting percentages.
When Tage Thompson broke out for 38 goals in 2021-22, it seemingly came out of nowhere. I still believed in Thompson as a player, and didn’t mind the big extension the Sabres signed him to, but heading into last season, I figured he’d be closer to a consistent 30-goal scorer rather than flirting with 40.
Why? Well, Thompson had nearly tripled his previous five-on-five shooting clip in 2021-22 and hadn’t flashed elite goal-scoring potential at lower levels, especially at even strength. As The Athletic’s Jonathan Willis had pointed out, Thompson had a pedestrian 10.6 career shooting percentage in the AHL against minor-league goalies and in his draft year, he scored just one even-strength goal in 36 games for the University of Connecticut.
Thompson made that regression talk look silly by exploding for 47 goals last season. Of course, there are factors such as Thompson’s positional shift to center, improved linemate quality, confidence, skill and rare 6-foot-6 frame that probably weren’t weighed heavily enough.
But there’s also the point that Thompson’s 15 percent shooting clip from 2021-22 was high but not crazy. This wasn’t a case of a player scoring at a ridiculous 25 percent clip; 15 percent is actually somewhat reasonable for an elite sniper to maintain year in, year out. We just weren’t sure he could maintain it because Thompson’s previous track record didn’t hint at star potential.
The lesson isn’t to ignore shooting percentage as a signal. That would be very foolish and lead to tons of regrettable mistakes — Thompson is a very special case and the overwhelming majority of players won’t follow his career arc. Rather, the lesson is that we shouldn’t go too far on the other side of the pendulum either in blindly assuming a player with a spiked shooting percentage is bound to regress. Occasionally, there’s more than meets the eye.
Hockey’s public analytics wrong? Since when?
Tage was a guy that clearly had broken out had anyone watched. He was faster, stronger, more confident, an altogether different player. Trying to use a spreadsheet to understand that is just foolish. I’m glad Tage can be yet another example of egg on the analytics communities face.