At this point, some of you will have seen the two Athletic articles released today:
[Buffalo Sabres 2023-24 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings – The Athletic](https://theathletic.com/4886371/2023/09/25/buffalo-sabres-season-preview-2023-24/)
[Sabres’ big question: Is Buffalo strong enough without the puck to match the hype?](https://theathletic.com/4887937/2023/09/25/sabres-big-question-2023-24/)
Both are relatively negative takes on the Sabres’ odds of making the playoffs this season. Now, I have no problem with negative takes, but I do have a problem with bad reasoning. I’d like to offer my counter-argument as to why the Sabres are perfectly set up for a playoff push this upcoming season.
## Rebuttal 1: Buffalo has not addressed the defensive holes in the roster.
> Even though there are some very clear flaws back in their own zone, the Sabres had a relatively quiet offseason. Only Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson were added, while Ilya Lyubushkin was moved out. **Were the roster tweaks enough to address such a pressing need?**
>
> **Probably not.**
Let’s start with the obvious one. With almost every team in the Atlantic making big roster moves this offseason, the Sabres made quiet, depth acquisitions. How will EJ and Clifton solve the Sabres’ defensive woes?
Well, the truth is, an outsized amount of our defensive challenges was in the bottom-half of our defensive roster. We saw that when Samuelsson was out for a stretch, we saw it again when Dahlin was injured, and we saw it whenever Jacbo Bryson was on the ice.
Let’s look at plus-minus. Yes, it’s a limited stat, but looking at a single team across an entire season is useful. Amongst all Sabres players, Bryson was the worst on the team with a -24. That’s not specifically because of the power-play, either – even outside of the penalty kill, he was still a -14 in even or advantageous situations.
When you look at 5-on-5 %GF (AKA plus-minus as a percentage, where higher is better), you get an interesting result. It’s easy to see that a huge portion of our defensive liabilities were due to our defensive depth. For example:
– Jacob Bryson – 33.33% GF at 5v5 (25 goals for, 50 goals against, -25)
– Ilya Lyubushkin – 44.93% GF at 5v5 (31 goals for, 38 goals against, -7)
– Henri Jokiharju – 45.38% GF at 5v5 (54 goals for, 65 goals against, -11)
This also holds true even for the depth players who made limited appearances – the depth defensive was an outsized part of the problem:
– Lawrence Pilut – 40.91% GF at 5v5 (9 for, 13 against, 196 minutes played, -4)
– Casey Fitzgerald – 44% GF at 5v5 (11 goals for, 14 goals against, 255 minutes played, -3)
As a team, the Sabres were only outscored by 7 goals on 5-on-5 throughout the entire season (197 for, 204 against). The guys here are a large reason why that happened.
So, the point here is that there’s nothing special that Clifton or EJ have to do besides being break-even players for the Sabres. Anything above replacement level is just a bonus. A **huge** part of solving the defensive issues on this team is just by pushing guys like Bryson and Jokiharju down the depth chart, and moving on from Lyubushkin.
That said, do I think there’s upside here, especially to Clifton? Absolutely. But I don’t even need to get into that speculation to make my point here. Kevyn Adams made the **necessary** moves to bolster our defense, not the flashy ones. And this alone will be a significant improvement over the previous season.
### Rebuttal #2: The Sabres Top 6 is too weak defensively
> Between Thompson, who has a team-low minus-five rating, Dylan Cozens and Jeff Skinner, the Sabres’ Defensive Rating drops by a collective minus-13. **At this rate, opponents really don’t even have to worry about matching up to their top six — they’ll likely give back whatever they take.**
Send this “analysis” to any NHL coach in the league and they’ll laugh you out of the room. The Sabres are a very difficult team to match up against and will only be getting more challenging as young players like Dylan Cozens, JJ Peterka, and Owen Power grow into their NHL roles.
First though, let’s talk about Tuch. If you’re watching the games, you’ve noticed that Tuch has developed an elite skill as a defensive disruptor. Across the entire league, Tuch tied for 17th in takeaways with 64, and had a takeaway-to-giveaway ratio of 1.68, which was higher than 11 of the players above him. In my opinion, this is by far the most underrated part of his game and is going completely unnoticed when people criticize the Sabres’ top line. Despite all the hate that Skinner and Thompson are getting, this line scored at a 56.8% GF rate (42 goals for, 32 goals against). The idea that the Sabres’ top line is somehow a net negative or break-even line is laughable.
Do Skinner and Thompson have work to do this year to be more responsible defensively? Yes. And if you’ve listened to Thompson’s interviews, it’s clear that he understands that and is excited to bring more defensive impact to their game. In my opinion, we can expect to see Tuch and Thompson take a dramatic step on their end of the ice this year. Thompson has a lot of room to grow and will be focusing on this part of his game for the first time since he broke out two years ago. And Tuch will continue to be the underrated dominant defensive force he was last year.
Alright, let’s talk about the second line.
Cozens played on the wing last season with two NHL rookies on a 2nd line, and despite that, had a career year. Peterka had mixed success last season, but his offseason was very promising and he looks primed to show a lot of growth this season. For reference, Peterka had 43.14% GF at even strength last year (40 goals for, 58 goals against) – not numbers to be particularly proud of, but still impressive given that he was playing 2nd-line matchups all season as a rookie. Quinn was better, but still net-negative, at 47.72% (46 for, 51 against).
Despite carrying the defensive weight of this line on his shoulders, Cozens managed a 48.06% GF% and a whopping **59.95%** _expected_ goals for at even strength. This implies that he had an elite two-way game but was hindered by his linemates. Given that he played with two rookies, this isn’t surprising at all.
We should expect better defensive results from this line simply because of Peterka’s growth in the off-season and the fact that this line will no longer have two players who are brand-new to the league, learning how to play against the best players in the world. And the idea that Cozens is a net-negative defensive player? Please.
## Rebuttal #3: The Sabres key issue is goaltending
> …Buffalo’s goaltending (is) arguably the team’s biggest weakness. **We already know Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen aren’t the solution. If Devon Levi isn’t either, good luck.**
I’ll keep this one short. I disagree that we _know_ UPL isn’t the solution. You’re talking about a goaltender with 46 NHL games played who has played at or around a .900 sv% throughout. To me, that at least gets you another season before judgement day – especially given the lack of help he got on his side of the ice, and the flashes of dominance he showed in stretches this season.
Comrie is a prime candidate for a bounce-back year, having spent most of the season fighting an injury. He went from a .920% with Winnipeg to a .886% with Buffalo – regression to the mean is very likely.
To put it simply, both of these guys are likely to be solid NHL backups or ‘B’ goalies for the rest of their careers. And both are still well within the development curve where making a jump to a starting role is possible.
And then you have Levi. Enough has been said about his upside, and actually, I’m probably in the group that expects him to have a “good, but not elite” season. But my point is that even with that, there’s no problems here. As the defensive side of the ice is cleaned up, the job in net will get much, much easier. I don’t think you need Levi to be some angel sent from the hockey gods for the Sabres to get into the playoffs – I think all you need is this team to extend its identity to the back-half of the ice (which they are already starting to do), and the rest will take care of itself.
## Final Thoughts
> If the Sabres want to live up to the hype from last year, the team has a huge challenge ahead: Maintaining and building on their offensive strengths, while stabilizing play without the puck. **On paper, the team doesn’t look ready for that just yet considering how far they have to rise.**
This is the type of analysis you get when a writer starts with a flawed analytical model, and attempts to rationalize the output instead of considering where the model may not match reality.
Are the Sabres a lock for a playoff spot? No, of course not. The Atlantic looks to be the toughest division in the league this year, and there’s no flashy pickups that make it easy to justify a bump in points.
**But if you think this team doesn’t look good on paper, then you’re probably reading it upside down.**
by Ttbt80
3 Comments
It’s only game, why you heff to be mad
The problem with your expectation is that you expect Levi to be an average starting goalie out of college. That is far from normal, especially on a team that gives up high danger chances like the Sabres do. Combine that with the fact that the supporting goalies are not NHL starters and the lack of defensive play from the forwards it’s a setup from the disaster. The lack of defensive structure combined with a lack of even average goaltending it’s creating a problem the Sabres won’t be able to outscore.
I didn’t read the whole thing but I do think there’s some irony in saying we didn’t do enough to shore up our defense by replacing a third of our defense with defensively solid guys. As if it would have been better if we picked up Erik Karlsson or Jacob Chychrun last year.