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[The Athletic] Ranking the NHL’s best and worst drafting teams since 2007: 31-17



https://theathletic.com/5084335/2023/11/23/nhl-draft-rankings-performance-picks/

>A few important notes before we dive in:

>• A club with tons of lottery picks and extra top-two-round selections should be judged differently than a contender that drafts late. Because of that, we’ll be using a model to determine each team’s “expected wins added” based on the picks they had each year and the historical worth of those selections. For example, the Edmonton Oilers had by far the most top 10 and No. 1 picks, so they had the highest expected wins added. We’ll compare that with the actual “wins added” based on the drafted players’ NHL performance. **A team that drafts well and exceeds the expected value of its draft capital will have a positive “value above expected” rating and vice versa.**

>• The model isn’t perfect so we’ve included other metrics in our charts such as what percentage of a team’s picks are on track to play 200-plus NHL games. It’s your choice what metrics you want to put most of your stock into — you don’t need to be overly fixated on the teams’ order through this article, which is sorted by the model’s value above expected rating.

>• Players belong to their originally drafted team for the purpose of this exercise. Amateur scouting staffs don’t trade or sign draftees, they just need to target the right prospects.

> #31st (or worst ranked): Buffalo Sabres

>https://imgur.com/W2xno9t

>How do you miss the playoffs 12 years running (and likely soon to be 13)? By botching almost every single draft during that timeframe. Just one, 2009, came in above average in value over expected.

>The Sabres have come away with an NHL player 27 percent of the time, which ranks ninth, but that’s hardly much of an accomplishment given their draft capital. Buffalo is second in picks, third in top 10 picks and second in expected value — the Sabres should be getting a lot of NHLers! The problem is that they haven’t been particularly high-quality ones with the team landing 23rd in wins added at the draft. The 66-win difference below expectations is bleak.

>The biggest issue is at the top of the draft. Having six top 10 picks is a blessing that the Sabres have squandered, as are the eight other first-round picks and 11 picks inside the top 50. The expected value there is 100 wins and the Sabres earned 57. Getting Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart is respectable, but there’s a treasure trove of misses after that.

>Rasmus Ristolainen, Alex Nylander and Casey Mittelstadt all disappointed for their draft slots. Then there are first picks used on Mikhail Grigorenko, Zack Kassian, Zemgus Girgensons, Mark Pysyk and Nikita Zadorov. NHLers? Absolutely. But if that’s a team’s haul of first-round picks over a decade span, it’s going to be tough to contend. Tyler Myers, Tyler Ennis and Joel Armia round out the list and while the trio met expectations, none were exactly steals.

>And if a team is not hitting there, chances are they aren’t hitting anywhere. Buffalo has a long list of duds after the first round and the end result is the league’s worst drafting team from 2007-2018. A 12-year playoff drought makes perfect sense given that context.

>**Best [value] pick**
Brandon Hagel, 159th pick in 2016
Value: 9.6 wins
Expected Value: 0.5 wins

>To add insult to injury, Buffalo’s best pick is one the team didn’t even retain. The Sabres failed to sign Hagel in 2018 and now he’s lighting it up with Tampa Bay, looking like a legitimate top-line player.

by seeldoger47

8 Comments

  1. ImportantFancyMan

    Risto was solid for the first couple of years. Mitts always had potential and is finally becoming a consistent force. Cozens? Quinn? Petreka? Benson? Oloffson? Do they just not exist anymore?

  2. buscemiknowsbest

    Every time I think maybe I should pay the cheap price for the Athletic, I see something like this and go back to forgetting they exist again.

    This is like when you forget to write a paper in middle school until the day before and can’t properly research and cite anything but your own stupidity.

  3. Wish the Sabres employed the “pin the tail on the donkey approach” to draft day.

  4. ScottyOnWheels

    It’s a interesting retrospective look. The Sabres went through some dark years with drafting, for sure. However, player development is a key piece too. Perhaps there are players we had rushed too soon. Additionally, there is the challenge of a young player joining a bad team. I think Casey Mittelstadt is a good example. As the team has improved around him, his play has also elevated.

    Looking back at that window isn’t terribly relevant for the management and players on the roster today. I don’t really care about the missed picks from Regier, Murray, or Botts. They are gone.

  5. Ullmark is the best goalie in the league. They think Hagel is better?

  6. reddishgrape

    Dom hates the Sabres. Always has. He always skews his numbers to make them look as bad possible

  7. FesteringLion

    >It’s your choice what metrics you want to put most of your stock into —

    I spent about 30 seconds on this article and it was very apparent it’s a “numbers can say whatever you want them to say” article. Hockey terrorist for a coach? – doesn’t factor. Value vs. the rest of the draft class? – Nah, just what the model aggregated what pick #X should be worth.

  8. Well yeah this team drafted two good skaters between 2004 and 2017.

    The late 2000s and early 2010s draft years are the reason we got that fancy failure record, and we fuckin earned it.

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