The Toronto Maple Leafs, as the kids say, are mid.
Some will say they’re better than that, citing their 98-point pace and plus-12 goal differential — both better than most teams.
Some will say they’re worse, citing their laughable inability to win in regulation and treasure trove of loser points — both worse than most teams.
But mid seems apt for a team that has won exactly 21 games and lost exactly 21 games.
Should this team be better than mid? Absolutely. But that’s based entirely on what we’ve seen the Leafs do in past years and not on much of anything they’ve done this season. They haven’t controlled play to the same effect, they’re a defensive mess in most games, they struggle on the penalty kill and they hold leads with the tenacity of a dog holding onto a tennis ball while being presented with a different tennis ball.
The Leafs might not be a bad hockey club, but they certainly haven’t looked the part of a good one. The question is whether or not that can change and with a very difficult second-half schedule, it’s looking less likely with each passing game.
With a core this good, it shouldn’t be that hard — but it doesn’t help if only Auston Matthews and William Nylander are playing up to or exceeding expectations. The Core Four strategy only works if it’s a united front delivering the goods and dominating night in and night out. It’s tough when the captain goes 17 games without a five-on-five goal, bad luck or not. It’s tougher when the other franchise winger doesn’t have the same impact outside the scoresheet he usually does.
With any of the Core Four on the ice this season the Leafs have scored 54.2 percent of the goals and earned 52.8 percent of the expected goals. That’s solid for any group of four that isn’t taking up half the salary cap, but unfortunately, this one is, which makes the figure much harder to accept. Over the previous two seasons, they were at 57 percent in both categories — good for seven extra goals this season.
What makes things toughest, though, is that as the Core Four’s results have fallen, the team’s reliance on them has risen.
Without the Core Four on the ice in the previous two seasons, the Leafs earned a little under 51 percent of the expected and actual goals. That’s a really good mark and is what helped make them a top team year in and year out. This year they’ve earned just 45 percent of the expected goals and scored 47.5 percent of the actual goals without the top guys on. The depth is getting walloped, taking away another four goals from what the Leafs have earned in previous seasons and putting the team on fraud watch.
That’s a problem of the franchise’s own design as they found the least efficient way to light money on fire in the summer. But even the team as constructed shouldn’t be this bad because a lot of the issue is on the Core Four not being nearly as effective as usual.
Maybe the team hasn’t found the right mix. Maybe the Leafs need to take a page out of Colorado’s playbook and just play their stars more. Maybe they need an injection of talent up front or on the back end. Maybe they need a new voice.
What they can’t do is pretend everything is OK or that their performance is close to good enough. The Leafs are not who we thought they were.
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If you watch the interview with Keefe – the stat he cites is they’re the best in 5v5 GAA in the past 10 games. It’s about the critical moments and to some extent special teams.
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Matthews is on pace for 68 goals and 100 points.
Marner is on pace for 35 goals and 92 points
Nylander is on pace for 41 goals and 111 points
Tavares is on pace for 23 goals and 66 points.
Have the core 4 really been underperforming or has Tavares just taken a step back while the defense and goaltending is worst?
23-24 the core 4 will produce 167 goals, and 369 points.
22-23 the core 4 produced 146 goals, and 351 points.
21-22 the core 4 produced 156 goals, and 359 points .
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Relevant part:
The Toronto Maple Leafs, as the kids say, are mid.
Some will say they’re better than that, citing their 98-point pace and plus-12 goal differential — both better than most teams.
Some will say they’re worse, citing their laughable inability to win in regulation and treasure trove of loser points — both worse than most teams.
But mid seems apt for a team that has won exactly 21 games and lost exactly 21 games.
Should this team be better than mid? Absolutely. But that’s based entirely on what we’ve seen the Leafs do in past years and not on much of anything they’ve done this season. They haven’t controlled play to the same effect, they’re a defensive mess in most games, they struggle on the penalty kill and they hold leads with the tenacity of a dog holding onto a tennis ball while being presented with a different tennis ball.
The Leafs might not be a bad hockey club, but they certainly haven’t looked the part of a good one. The question is whether or not that can change and with a very difficult second-half schedule, it’s looking less likely with each passing game.
With a core this good, it shouldn’t be that hard — but it doesn’t help if only Auston Matthews and William Nylander are playing up to or exceeding expectations. The Core Four strategy only works if it’s a united front delivering the goods and dominating night in and night out. It’s tough when the captain goes 17 games without a five-on-five goal, bad luck or not. It’s tougher when the other franchise winger doesn’t have the same impact outside the scoresheet he usually does.
With any of the Core Four on the ice this season the Leafs have scored 54.2 percent of the goals and earned 52.8 percent of the expected goals. That’s solid for any group of four that isn’t taking up half the salary cap, but unfortunately, this one is, which makes the figure much harder to accept. Over the previous two seasons, they were at 57 percent in both categories — good for seven extra goals this season.
What makes things toughest, though, is that as the Core Four’s results have fallen, the team’s reliance on them has risen.
Without the Core Four on the ice in the previous two seasons, the Leafs earned a little under 51 percent of the expected and actual goals. That’s a really good mark and is what helped make them a top team year in and year out. This year they’ve earned just 45 percent of the expected goals and scored 47.5 percent of the actual goals without the top guys on. The depth is getting walloped, taking away another four goals from what the Leafs have earned in previous seasons and putting the team on fraud watch.
That’s a problem of the franchise’s own design as they found the least efficient way to light money on fire in the summer. But even the team as constructed shouldn’t be this bad because a lot of the issue is on the Core Four not being nearly as effective as usual.
Maybe the team hasn’t found the right mix. Maybe the Leafs need to take a page out of Colorado’s playbook and just play their stars more. Maybe they need an injection of talent up front or on the back end. Maybe they need a new voice.
What they can’t do is pretend everything is OK or that their performance is close to good enough. The Leafs are not who we thought they were.
If you watch the interview with Keefe – the stat he cites is they’re the best in 5v5 GAA in the past 10 games. It’s about the critical moments and to some extent special teams.
Matthews is on pace for 68 goals and 100 points.
Marner is on pace for 35 goals and 92 points
Nylander is on pace for 41 goals and 111 points
Tavares is on pace for 23 goals and 66 points.
Have the core 4 really been underperforming or has Tavares just taken a step back while the defense and goaltending is worst?
23-24 the core 4 will produce 167 goals, and 369 points.
22-23 the core 4 produced 146 goals, and 351 points.
21-22 the core 4 produced 156 goals, and 359 points .