I was listening to the Steve Dangle podcast yesterday and Adam Wylde said something that was really true
I’m paraphrasing, but it was along the line of the leafs under Keefe not only change how they play in the playoffs, but playing into the other teams game instead of imposing themselves and dictating their style of play. Take a look at our opponents under Keefe:
CBJ- Defensive team- Low scoring series
MTL- Defensive team- relatively low scoring series
TB 2022- well rounded team- low scoring series
TB 2023- this was arguably the least defensive team we’ve played, as TB was a shell of its former self and their more free flowing style of play allowed us to play at a similar tempo, which is our strength
Florida 2023- hard forechecking and defensive team- low scoring series
BOS 2024- defensive team- low scoring series
Dom Lusczyn from the athletic published an article that supports this idea of us trying too hard to become a defensive team/matching the team we’re playing by showing how Matthews and Marner both see their offensive value cut in half but their defensive value almost doubled- in Bergeron territory effectively.
It’s funny, because the only time we’ve seemingly see the leafs play to their offensive potential (outside of TB 2023) is when we’re losing by a few goals. Think of game 4 in CBJ with that crazy comeback, the multiple two goal comebacks against Montreal, the 4-1 comeback against TB. This team can dictate the game offensively if the want, they’re just playing a different game.
We’re a team built on offensive talent and while that doesn’t mean we can’t be good defensively, we have to play to our identity and not try to be something we’re not. Hopefully when Berube gets hired he allows us to play in such a way where we’re dictating the style, not the other team.
by Accomplished_Low148
28 Comments
I wish we could have seen this year team’s with a real coach.
The lack of depth on defence and goaltending forced these changes in their games and the forwards absorb the blame.
They definitely play too tight in the playoffs. I get it, maybe you have to take a few less chances compared to the regular season but you still have to fundamentally play your game. The game changes in the playoffs but it doesn’t change THAT much.
The best players on the best teams still go out and do what they do, for the most part. I hope a new coach will allow the stars to do that.
Looks like they got fuckin coached!
I feel like they’ve gotten to a point where they’re overthinking the playoffs. With keefe ranting about playoff style goals it feels like they think they have to treat the playoffs like a totally different game and it causes them to play completely different. It’s like they assume goals are going to be harder to score so they don’t try to score in ways they normally do cause they just assume it won’t work.
IMO they played that way because they never had a truly dependable goalie in the playoffs. Look at some of the goals Campbell allowed vs MTL for instance – guys just taking shots from far out that beat him. Do you think if they played wide open hockey vs Price/Vasilevskiy/Rask/Bobrovsky/Swayman that the Leafs goalie would be best?
The Leafs don’t have the necessary mobility on D or the goaltending to play like that in the playoffs. Over long stretches that would allow the opposition even more opportunity to exploit their greatest weaknesses. At some point you have to accept the reality that this roster is poorly constructed. We don’t even have a top pairing and we’re running with bargain bin goaltending. That’s not a recipe for success in the playoffs and it just makes the forwards look bad.
Can’t be afraid to lose if you want to win
Marner hates the rough going and that changes his game. Matthews spends way too much time defending because the defense can’t move the puck. The Leafs must change the defense into a puck moving machine. How they do that starts by trading Marner for one or two!
Or they play better teams in playoffs with more structure that are risk adverse. And the drop pass stops working and holding the puck hoping a seam opens doesn’t work.
I think a couple of weeks ago SDP showed the stats for Matthew’s this season. He was on like a 45 goal per season pace against playoff teams. Which means he’s almost a goal per game against non playoff teams
I’m guessing this is similar for most players. As the better teams have better players, better structure, and better game plans. Like the playoffs.
You are less likely to create a breakdown on playoff teams.
You know, I can see the analytics reasons behind this: higher event hockey is more chaotic, and while over an 82 game season you’ve got more runway to outscore defensive issues, in a 4-7 game series, if there are any hiccups in your offense while playing fast and loose, you can get buried. So safer lower event hockey might more consistently look like something that will win you games/series.
However, asking a team to change what they’ve practiced for 82 games and start playing a different style is a recipe for disaster.
Either be a stifling shutdown team all season and carry that through into the playoffs being super well versed in it, or fucking run and gun the season and keep trying to blast mofos in the playoffs. Or better yet play a balanced style all the way through.
Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Domi, Knies, Lilligren, Robertson, Holmberg… these are not dump and chase guys.
These are skate it in and forecheck hard guys. Remember Marner when he first came in the league? Dude was a fucking puck hound. That’s what was super exciting about him- insanely talented, but willing to go into a battle on the boards for the puck, and so skilled that he’d win it most of the time. His game was totally built for that style even though he’s not overly physical.
But for years the strategy has been to put puck retrievers out with Matthews, Marner, and Nylander, and have those guys stay in open ice to work their magic there… so now good teams know exactly what’s going to happen when there’s a battle, and can focus on winning it/taking away the obvious play.
Really well said
Out of curiosity where is the chart from?
Would love more context there
The 2021 vs the 2021 Habs.
The Leafs this season used a unique strategy whereby they would rarely ever dump it in. Their goal was to enter the zone with puck posession at all costs and then cook you on the offensive zone cycle. Most teams, if they couldn’t get the initial entry, they’d dump it in. With the Leafs, they would cricle back and regroup. This strategy is very easy to counter: Line up multiple bodies at the blue line, force the Leafs to circle back. When they regroup once, you’ll usually have supporting teammates join you and provide even more defensive support. Then if the Leafs decide to dump it in, you now have numbers in the defensive zone to defend a forecheck. Columbus in Game 5, Montreal in Game 7 and the David Ayers game showcased this.
After the 2021 series, Toronto stopped doing this. I actually thought that was a mistake, IMO, if it’s a tie game or you’re behind you shouldn’t be doing this but if you’re up 2 goals or up 1 goal in the latter half of the third, this strategy is very difficult to counter since it absolutely kills teams that want to play aggressively. It’s just that Keefe committed to it on an all or nothing basis. The Leafs now will employ the circle back strategy in their half of the neutral zone if they don’t see a good clean breakout available. They were the only team in the league that did this btw.
2-1-2 Forecheck. This is the forecheck often employed by John Tortorella.
This was experimented with very briefly after the Habs series. The Leafs were not great at it. The basic idea behind the forecheck is on dump ins, two forwards rush in to rush the initial puck carrier and force a turnover. The forward that sits back is supposed to attack if the initial forecheck fails or if the puck carrier can pass out of the initial wave. The dmen provide defense against counter rushes. For whatever reasons, the Leafs were not great at this forecheck and gave up a ton of transition chances – something they’re already not good at defending to begin with. It culiminated in a 7-1 loss to the Penguins where 6 of the 7 goals came from rushes. It’s the game that inspired that somewhat famous .gif of the Leafs fan taking a selfie with his sister. My theory on why this was abandoned: Our dmen aren’t great at defending the rush. They are specialists that excel against defending a very certain type of offense. Vs a cycle, vs dump ins, they are great. Vs teams with heavy rush attacks, they’re often slow and exposed.
The 1-1-3 forecheck. This is the old left wing lock made famous by the 90’s Red Wings.
The best Leafs team of the era IMO utilized this. The 1-1-3 is something traditionally used by defensive minded coaches; Barry Trotz’s teams in New York and Nashville were big proponents of this as was his Caps teams but the Keefe 1-1-3 is played differently than the Trotz 1-1-3. The Leafs’ forward group allowed them to play it more aggressively while retaining the defensive structure of the system. The Keefe 1-1-3 has the initial forechecker be really aggressive while the back 2 are waiting for a reaction by the puck carrier. Sometimes, the forecheck will funnel the puck carrier or force him to pass to the side with the F2 and force a 2 on 1 board battle. The Leafs are actually a very good forechecking team despite belief to the contrary, they did well with this system for a reason. The counter to a 1-1-3 is the have multiple guys back on the dump and have them close enough to each other to outman the initial 1 with quick accurate passes. Because the 1-1-3 is so defensively sound, this isn’t a disaster if they beat the forecheck but it does create low scoring games. This is something Tampa opted to do vs us in the last few games of the 2022 playoff series and something they did again the latter half of the 2023 playoff series. After Game 4 they threw in the towel and basically said we’re not going to beat this team by trying to outscore them.
The 1-3-1
This is a wrinkle that Keefe added to the team last season after getting beach on the rush vs Florida last year so many times. People keep mistakenly saying that Florida beat us with a relentless forecheck but that simply was not true. 80% of their goals came in transition including every single goal in game 2, 3, 5 (they didn’t score in game 4 at all). But he really ramped it up vs Boston in this series where he basically played the old passive 1-3-1 (think of that meme video where the Flyers troll Guy Boucher). Not too surprisingly, the Leafs added Boucher this year as an Assistant coach, he’s always been a big proponent of the 1-3-1. The 1-3-1 IMO is not great as a main forecheck since it sacrifices almost all your offense in order to shell up and prevent the other team from scoring.
In every single playoff series we’ve played under Keefe, a team has found a counter to our A game and in each instance, instead of countering with some minor adjustments, Keefe has actually over reacted and adjusted by forcing the team to play even more defensively. In Game 4 vs Montreal, we put up 5-1 on the Habs. Recall that in Games 5 and 6, the team was down in the muck for much of the game before opting to turn it on and coming back in the third period to tie it. In Game 4 vs Tampa last year, we 4-1’d them playing our game. In each instance, the team after that made an in series adjustment that forced the Leafs into playing in the muck and instead of looking for ways of forcing our A game onto those teams, Keefe accepted it and went uber defensive. It’s good to be able to win the occasional 1-0, 2-1 game. Every team has to be able to win playing their B and C game. Edmonton has a game like that this year already actually. But you need to play to your strengths and not let the other team dictate how to play. Now vs Boston specifically this year, I understand, injuries forced his hand but the previous five series is why Keefe doesn’t have a job now.
I’m not going to make him out to be a saviour, but I think Berube could help a lot in this respect. He’s a hardass so he’d be very demanding they play the way he wants them to play. And I think he’d be a much bigger proponent of banging and crashing the net in the playoffs in order to score on tips, screens, and rebounds.
I think what did Sheldon Keefe in, more than anything, was exactly that. He was more reactive than proactive. He was and is still a good coach. He just didn’t react soon enough to what Treliving wanted. To be fair though, our top six don’t exactly know how to storm the barn. Keefe could spit venom but you can lead a horse to water but can’t make it drink.
I’m sorry, am I the only here who has has no idea what the numbers represent? A defense of 3 in regular season vs. Defense of 5.9…out of what and compared to what? Where’s the context?
The numbers Mason…what do they mean!?
That was one of my gripes of Keefe.
Mathews and Marner play in the ripples in the playoffs, and it drives me crazy.
These guys need to be taught their the stones that smash the water others have to react too. McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have this down perfectly.
It’s easy to play well against bad teams.
Stats like this is why I want to run it back one more time. Try to keep the defensive efficiency while not losing the team’s offensive identity.
What’s maddening is if you’re going to play this way in the playoffs, why not play like that in the regular season? It’s not shocking we suck in the first round because we discard the system we played the entire regular season, it’s basically training camp for us while other teams are peaking.
Marner legitimately looked scared to make a mistake to me. He was more tentative than normal and he wasn’t his typically flashy stick handling self. He was bad.
Matthews I would be curious how that broke down on a more game by game basis. He seemed tentative in game 1, then won game 2 basically by himself, then wasn’t the same player in games 3, 4, or 7. If we got game 2 Matthews in another game in that series, we probably win the series. He had the winner plus 2 assists, and he assisted on the goal that didn’t count. The most optimistic takeaway from the series is that if a healthy Matthews can be that player, they will win more games.
By design. And it comes from the top, as noted in the presser. Shanahan/Treliving wants their team to play different in the playoffs, which we do, and you all ate that presser up.
Florida last year was not a defensive team
I’d like to see how this compares to what mcdavid and draisaitl have done so far this playoffs, given the comparable salaries
Mitch catches all the shit, but historically Matthews hasn’t been great, especially in elimination games.
They’re playing to not lose
It doesn’t matter what “systems play” you deploy if the compete level isn’t on high for every puck battle and possession effort, you’ll find yourself on the wrong side of the game sheet.
It doesn’t matter what “systems play” you deploy if the compete level isn’t on high for every puck battle and possession effort, you’ll find yourself on the wrong side of the game sheet.