I’m not a big fan of the “be bad to be good” strategy beyond what is necessary. Obviously, you’re going to have several years at the bottom of the league as you offload aging veterans and wait for prospects and draft picks to develop, but gaming the system as everyone wants to do is heavily based on luck.
The Oilers drafted first overall 4 times in 6 years and the only one that was the franchise player everyone wants was in a year the Oilers finished 28th. 2 teams (Arizona and Buffalo) tanked really hard that year, were more deserving of a generational talent, and yet lost out and are still looking for a way back to the playoffs a decade later. The Oilers’ other star player was a third overall pick, and most Oilers’ fans and the media thought they should have picked Sam Bennett. Where would the Oilers be today had they drafted Dylan Strome and Sam Bennett?
The draft picks you get when you’re bad should help a lot with your rebuild but it is a bad plan to bet on them to build your team. All your draft picks, the prospects you can acquire in trade, the undrafted prospects you sign, the players who need a change in scenery, your waver wire acquisitions, and the free agents you can sign are important to build a team.
The Flames will draft in the top 10 for the next 2 to 5 years, it is idiotic to think that our rebuild hinges on drafting 6th instead of 9th in one of those years.
Appropriate_Shape833
Kent Wilson: the Flames “fan” that management should completely ignore. Does he think we don’t remember his poor analysis of the Tanev signing as a mistake? Pepperidge Farms remembers.
Rather than engage with the stats, he just unilaterally declares that being bad results in better performance. But is this true?
Since 1980, 40 of the 132 top 3 picks have won the Cup. When you narrow that down by picks that won the Cup with the team that drafted them, that number goes down to 19 out of 132. Tanking to get high draft picks just doesn’t really work, and it wastes years of fans’ time that they could have enjoyed better teams and playoff appearances.
From 2010 to 2019, the Panthers made the playoffs exactly 1 time. Since then, they have made the playoffs every year since then. What happened in 2019-2020? Bobrovsky, a 30 year old goaltender signed a 7 year deal with the Panthers. They have made the playoffs every year since then. Big surprise that having a 2-time Vezina winner would take them so far in the playoffs. Kent Wilson probably would’ve told you that was a bad idea, and Florida should’ve kept tanking until they drafted a good goalie. Now Florida is on the cusp of potentially winning a Cup.
magic-moose
The Flames ownership prefers consistent mediocrity to boom & bust. Ultimately, Conroy has a boss who lives in Switzerland, is *totally* not dodging taxes, and probably doesn’t watch hockey very often.
What Conroy *can* do is prioritize feeding the farm. Let no player walk untraded. Trade for picks above all. Avoid hiring overpaid free agents and use the cap-space savings as a trade asset. Stop loading up on veterans and round out the team with AHL’ers in order to develop them. Most importantly, put extra resources into scouting and development.
In the short-term, this approach will likely not take the team to the same depths as Oiler-style intentional tanking. More mediocrity is the likely outcome. Many have made the mistake of assuming that you need 4 #1 picks in 6 years to build a real contender. Only one team has *ever* had that many firsts in such a short period, and it hasn’t gifted them with the cup *yet*.
How many great players have been drafted outside of the top 5? You don’t need top 5 picks if you have a *lot* of other picks, spend them wisely, and develop the results industriously. If your deadbeat, corpoate-welfare-seeking, heel of a boss won’t let you tank, then you’re just going to have to work with mediocrity.
jokerofish
People act like tanking it an easy thing to do – it’s never been more competitive to tank then it is now.
# of teams with less than 30 wins in a 82 game season:
There has not been over 4 teams with less than 30 wins since the salary cap was enacted and now there has been 4 years in a row where at least 4 teams are that bad.
It was harder to get Macklin Celebrini then it was to get Connor McDavid.
CrowsShinyWings
Really never understand the reasons why fans don’t want to take two or three or four spins at the roulette wheel for elite talent.
Some bad hockey in the short term sure but this team has had amazing drafting outside of the 1st round. We just don’t have star players. We have tons of solid players who could make an impact as middle six forwards, or maybe higher. But are any of the players we have going to be stars? We were consistently missing star performances in the playoffs (along with defensive woes in general). We missed on 2nd liner free agent signings in Neal and Coleman and traded away picks despite our scouting ability. Hell, even our latest 1st in Honzek looks like he won’t be a star either with that huge regression.
Yes, it may not work, only one team wins the cup, and some teams are run horribly, but there’s reasonable reason to believe it would be better than the majority of these last 30 years. Give us a few good chances at star players. It’s unlikely we completely collapse into a horrendous cycle like Buffalo did.
5 Comments
I’m not a big fan of the “be bad to be good” strategy beyond what is necessary. Obviously, you’re going to have several years at the bottom of the league as you offload aging veterans and wait for prospects and draft picks to develop, but gaming the system as everyone wants to do is heavily based on luck.
The Oilers drafted first overall 4 times in 6 years and the only one that was the franchise player everyone wants was in a year the Oilers finished 28th. 2 teams (Arizona and Buffalo) tanked really hard that year, were more deserving of a generational talent, and yet lost out and are still looking for a way back to the playoffs a decade later. The Oilers’ other star player was a third overall pick, and most Oilers’ fans and the media thought they should have picked Sam Bennett. Where would the Oilers be today had they drafted Dylan Strome and Sam Bennett?
The draft picks you get when you’re bad should help a lot with your rebuild but it is a bad plan to bet on them to build your team. All your draft picks, the prospects you can acquire in trade, the undrafted prospects you sign, the players who need a change in scenery, your waver wire acquisitions, and the free agents you can sign are important to build a team.
The Flames will draft in the top 10 for the next 2 to 5 years, it is idiotic to think that our rebuild hinges on drafting 6th instead of 9th in one of those years.
Kent Wilson: the Flames “fan” that management should completely ignore. Does he think we don’t remember his poor analysis of the Tanev signing as a mistake? Pepperidge Farms remembers.
Rather than engage with the stats, he just unilaterally declares that being bad results in better performance. But is this true?
Since 1980, 40 of the 132 top 3 picks have won the Cup. When you narrow that down by picks that won the Cup with the team that drafted them, that number goes down to 19 out of 132. Tanking to get high draft picks just doesn’t really work, and it wastes years of fans’ time that they could have enjoyed better teams and playoff appearances.
From 2010 to 2019, the Panthers made the playoffs exactly 1 time. Since then, they have made the playoffs every year since then. What happened in 2019-2020? Bobrovsky, a 30 year old goaltender signed a 7 year deal with the Panthers. They have made the playoffs every year since then. Big surprise that having a 2-time Vezina winner would take them so far in the playoffs. Kent Wilson probably would’ve told you that was a bad idea, and Florida should’ve kept tanking until they drafted a good goalie. Now Florida is on the cusp of potentially winning a Cup.
The Flames ownership prefers consistent mediocrity to boom & bust. Ultimately, Conroy has a boss who lives in Switzerland, is *totally* not dodging taxes, and probably doesn’t watch hockey very often.
What Conroy *can* do is prioritize feeding the farm. Let no player walk untraded. Trade for picks above all. Avoid hiring overpaid free agents and use the cap-space savings as a trade asset. Stop loading up on veterans and round out the team with AHL’ers in order to develop them. Most importantly, put extra resources into scouting and development.
In the short-term, this approach will likely not take the team to the same depths as Oiler-style intentional tanking. More mediocrity is the likely outcome. Many have made the mistake of assuming that you need 4 #1 picks in 6 years to build a real contender. Only one team has *ever* had that many firsts in such a short period, and it hasn’t gifted them with the cup *yet*.
How many great players have been drafted outside of the top 5? You don’t need top 5 picks if you have a *lot* of other picks, spend them wisely, and develop the results industriously. If your deadbeat, corpoate-welfare-seeking, heel of a boss won’t let you tank, then you’re just going to have to work with mediocrity.
People act like tanking it an easy thing to do – it’s never been more competitive to tank then it is now.
# of teams with less than 30 wins in a 82 game season:
2010-11: 1
2011-12: 1
2013-14: 3
2014-15: 3 (mcdavid draft)
2015-16: 1
2016-12: 2
2017-18: 4
2018-19: 1
2019-20: 6
2021-22: 6
2022-23: 5
2023-24: 4
There has not been over 4 teams with less than 30 wins since the salary cap was enacted and now there has been 4 years in a row where at least 4 teams are that bad.
It was harder to get Macklin Celebrini then it was to get Connor McDavid.
Really never understand the reasons why fans don’t want to take two or three or four spins at the roulette wheel for elite talent.
Some bad hockey in the short term sure but this team has had amazing drafting outside of the 1st round. We just don’t have star players. We have tons of solid players who could make an impact as middle six forwards, or maybe higher. But are any of the players we have going to be stars? We were consistently missing star performances in the playoffs (along with defensive woes in general). We missed on 2nd liner free agent signings in Neal and Coleman and traded away picks despite our scouting ability. Hell, even our latest 1st in Honzek looks like he won’t be a star either with that huge regression.
Yes, it may not work, only one team wins the cup, and some teams are run horribly, but there’s reasonable reason to believe it would be better than the majority of these last 30 years. Give us a few good chances at star players. It’s unlikely we completely collapse into a horrendous cycle like Buffalo did.