The Carolina Hurricanes currently have two big-name restricted free agents that they will need to make decisions on their future with the team. I created a couple of data visualizations using comparable RFA signings over the last 5 years.
In the scatter plot, I used 31 forwards who have signed RFA deals over the last 5 years. With scoring being oftentimes being the best indicator of success for young players, I decided to use points per game as a way to level the playing field. On the y-axis, I used the years that the player has been in the league when the contract was signed, with a minimum of 25 games being played to count as a year. The dots are then colored based on the average annual value (AAV) of the deal that they signed.
From there, I then could group players into distinct categories.
In the red, these are players who were drafted high in their draft class or received large amounts of attention, ultimately not panning out to their full potential. Players like Jesse Puljujarvi and Kirby Dach were both top-5 picks that flat-lined as middle to bottom-six forwards.
The unproven circle shows players who do not have enough experience in the world’s best league, therefore making it very tricky for owners to offer the players the value they deserve. In this graph, the two players signed dramatically different deals despite similar productions. Yegor Sharangovich would sign a small bridge deal, while Drake Batherson would sign a much larger 6-year contract.
Next is the green circle, which represents players who signed bridge contracts, essentially bridging the gap between an entry deal and a large contract. Oftentimes, these can be labeled as “Prove it” deals, allowing the player to show what they are worth. Former first-overall pick, Alexis Lafrenière, chose this option and had a fantastic playoff performance this year. Fitting enough, Martin Necas previously signed a bridge contract and is inside of this circle.
Stars are players that have oftentimes played in the league for a longer amount of time, progressing at a consistent rate. Superstars is explanatory, these players can score at ease and deserve to be paid for their worth.
This leaves the last circle, the blue. This is where I believe is the best time to give fowards the long term contracts. In this range, we can find players like Matthew Tkachuk and Travis Konecny.
For Martin Necas, I believe the direction is heading towards a trade. And for that, I think it is important to look at two players, PLD and Tippett. The harsh reality is that Necas can be compared to Owen Tippett for their goalscoring and playmaking similarities. However with a trade, oftentimes the receiving team will need to overpay. Tippett received an 8yr/$49.6m deal while PLD received 8yr/$68m. To further back up my point that Tippett and Necas are comparable, I looked at the on-ice goal differential. Martin Necas was 0.5, and Tippett was 0.3. Also, Troy Terry was 0.4, plays a similar play style, and received a $7m AAV contract.
Expect Marin Necas to receive a 7 year deal, with an AAV close to 7.125 million.
Seth Jarvis is a bit more of a wildcard, he was a younger star that performed better than Necas this year. With the Hurricanes making Jarvis their main target, it makes it more difficult to predict. They are able to throw a lot more money to keep him.
If they are able to get him via a bridge deal, a 3yr/$21 million dollar deal would be ideal.
If he looks to get more term, I could see him settling on a little less than 7 million per year unlike Svechnikovs 8yr/$62 million. With the concerns on Svechnikov's contract, I see the Hurricanes trying to avoid this.
by drewszn28
