Here are some graphs showing how players picked around where the Flames are picking this year have performed in the NHL. These are historical performances for player taken from 2005 to 2015. Sample size isn't the greatest though, especially for defensemen early in the draft.
Flames pick: 1st round, 9 oa (graph range 7-11 oa)
Forwards: https://imgur.com/VOKxjbP
Defense: https://imgur.com/sMd7hLU
Flames pick: 1st round, 28 oa (graph range 24-32 oa)
Forwards: https://imgur.com/0TmtK3E
Defense: https://imgur.com/xKGmuO9
Flames pick: 2nd round, 41 oa (graph range 37-45 oa)
Forwards: https://imgur.com/Kai6RVS
Defense: https://imgur.com/8VmkFE7
Flames pick: 2nd round, 62 oa (graph range 58-66 oa)
Forwards: https://imgur.com/SECnksM
Defense: https://imgur.com/ApkXbfN
Flames pick: 3rd round, 74 oa (graph range 69-79 oa)
Forwards: https://imgur.com/ZXlSf4s
Defense: https://imgur.com/kbJMICq
Flames pick: 3rd round, 84 oa (graph range 77-91 oa)
Forwards: https://imgur.com/Dw4dZ6b
Defense: https://imgur.com/gTZ4Gjl
Flames pick: 4th round, 106 oa and 107 oa – two in a row! (graph range 92-122 oa)
Forwards: https://imgur.com/7WYmnr8
Defense: https://imgur.com/zKUSiJm
Flames pick: 6th round, 170 oa (graph range 161-192, i.e. the 6th round)
Forwards: https://imgur.com/vJYnDAq
Defense: https://imgur.com/6CXkT9W
PS82 is point shares per 82 games. Here's an explanation of point shares: https://www.hockey-reference.com/about/point_shares.html
The basic idea is to attribute standings points to each player on a team. When you add up all players' point shares, you should get a value close to the actual standings points in most cases. It gives a crude measure for player quality.
If a player didn't play at least half the season, the PS82 is set to 0. On the graphs, "Y1" is the player's draft+1 year (so for a player drafted in 2007, that would 2007-08), "Y2" is the player's draft+2 year, and so on.
There are certain thresholds shown on the graphs for reference. These are based on the PS82s of players in the 23-24 season. These thresholds are not always exactly the same every season, of course.
EF (elite forward): top 12 forward in the NHL
F1 (#1 forward): top 32 forward in the NHL
L1 (1st liner): top 3*32 = 96 forward in the NHL
L2 (2nd liner): top 6*32 = 192 forward in the NHL
L3 (3rd liner): top 9*32 = 288 forward in the NHL
ED (elite defenseman): top 6 defenseman in the NHL
D1 (#1 D): top 32 defenseman in the NHL
D2 (#2 D): top 2*32 = 64 defenseman in the NHL
D3 (#3 D): top 3*32 = 96 defenseman in the NHL
D4 (#4 D): top 4*32 = 128 defenseman in the NHL
D5 (#5 D): top 5*32 = 160 defenseman in the NHL
So for example, any points above the "L1" line is roughly a top 96 forward in the NHL by PS82.
by IM_Munkey
