This Season: 8th
Last season: 14th
Contract values aren’t stagnant and timing is everything. It’s a lot like the real market in that way and the Leafs bought the top on William Nylander.
He started the year as an $8.5 million player, peaked at an $11.5 million valuation and then settled in at $10 million when all was said and done. The problem was the Leafs signed him right at that peak and only a few months later were left with a deal that could prove difficult to live up to. Nylander has the ability to look like an $11.5 million player or better, it’s a matter of whether he can consistently be that year in and year out — and the model raises skepticism considering he doesn’t have a lengthy resume in that range.
Thankfully for Toronto, that’s offset (for the next four years anyway) by Auston Matthews’ extension, which is a bargain for what he is as an annual MVP contender. As one of the three best players on earth, he’s closer to a league-max player than one that will only command 15 percent of the cap.
The Leafs have some good deals and bad deals across the board like most teams, but the reason they rank so high is what they’ve done in net. Anthony Stolarz was the highest upside bet available in free agency and to get him at $2.5 million is great value. And if Joseph Woll is indeed the goalie of the future the franchise feels he is, a three-year extension at $3.66 million per is a bet well worth making. That could end up being a massive bargain if he ends up being the real deal. There’s risk there given his small sample and injury history, but Woll feels worth that risk.
The model projects a lot of upside in both those goalie plays — we’ll see if it pans out given the difficulty in predicting goaltending with any degree of accuracy. If not, Toronto’s cap picture comes in a lot closer to average.
by malliabu
11 Comments
Do you happen to know what their ranking was for the years before last as well? I can’t seem to figure out how to search it on the app, I don’t get any results beyond this latest article.
Edit: I manually scrolled back as far as 2022 where they were ranked 3rd and it stated they were also ranked 3rd the season before that too. I don’t feel like scrolling back further lol
Stolarz signing is so good it skews our off season and nearly has to be removed in order to be objective. I’d like to see this ranking with his signing removed.
Leafs run a masterclass on signing players at their peak. Nylander should have been reupped last season at $10Mx8. $10.5M at most.
I don’t care if he lives up to the deal – with a sliver of foresight they could have saved $1M+ per season and allotted that elsewhere. Now we continue the tradition of nickel and diming fringe players to fill out the bottom of the roster. Mismanagement.
LOL Ryan Reaves having a better contract rating than William Nylander tells me all I need to know about this analysis
It’s a cool model, but you really don’t need it to know that Nylander and OEL’s contracts are horrible Treliving deals.
Was Willy willing to write his name on a white paper? Or was he waiting until he knew he could max out deal and then said let’s talk?
I honestly don’t know. Enlighten me.
any time you sign Nylander is the peak, because all his motivation is gone the moment the ink hits paper
remember, this is the guy that sat out out as long as he possibly could to ensure he was paid more than his best friend, who is miles away a much better player
I will admit I’m a dummy, but the model value seems to be about as useful as the winometer. McMann, Lilly, the value for the player right now makes no sense.
Lilly can Crack a top 6 on a healthyplayoff lineup and is looking to be a 7th D on the team this year. He’s OK he’s just not a 6 million dollar guy.
Personally, I consider the Leafs’ contracts among the worst in the league. Every single comparable is a better deal. We pay more per point than most teams.
When you consider Kucherov has 140 points and 9.5 million… it becomes very clear that the Leafs’ contracts are absolutely not efficient. Not for the core 4. Even Matthews is kind of an overpay. Compared to his peers. Remember he’s currently paid more than McDavid.
As soon as I saw Marner’s value at $12.1M I knew the model was not even close to reality
8th is pretty good considering our players never take discounts like other elite teams. Some teams (Vancouver comes to mind) are too high because they overachieved last year. Generally all the good teams are at the top – no surprise.