The “groups” Bader references are 5 groups that he classifies draftable players into based on their probability of becoming NHLers. Here’s a tweet with background on that system
>Teams always talk about wanting to draft an “impact” player with their pick, especially the high ones.
>Impact star players mostly come from two small groups. There’s 5 ways I’ve started grouping players in terms of their normalized production within their draft year. Here’s a look at the forwards…
>Group 1, a very small elite group, is the most likely to make the NHL (76%) as well as become a star (43%).
>Group 2 is a larger but still rather small group where still 60% turn into NHLers and 20% turn into stars.
>Group 3 is a large group of above average producers. 35% of them make the NHL and 5% turn into stars.
>Group 4 is largely a younger low producing DY group. 18% make the NHL and ~0.5% turn into stars.
>Group 5 is mostly low producing older prospects. 16% make the NHL and almost none turn into stars. This is a huge group that makes up nearly 50% of forwards drafted every year.
>As to what’s in the groups specifically. There’s a lot of iterations for each group. As well, as of right now I don’t fully want to reveal what’s in each group (once it’s on the line it’s on the line forever!). So for now I’ll just keep that to myself.
Radu47
Just to reiterate before the comments roll in: NHLe alone predicts drafts better than NHL mgmt and ideally is used among many tools
inalasahl
Ron Francis and co. really seem to be savvy evaluators.
Radu47
For more context in terms of groups
Typical point totals we see in drafting are roughly as follows in the canadian major junior leagues for forwards in year before the draft and their draft year, combined on average:
_______________________
**Group 1 (76% likely NHLer)**
150 (often 60 points then 90)
Example: brayden point, shane Wright
**Group 2 (60% likely NHLers)**
120 (often 45 points then 75)
Example: Travis Konecny, jagger firkus (on pace for)
**Group 3 (35% likely NHLer)**
90 (often 30 points then 60 points)
Example: jared mccann, david goyette
**Group 4 (18% likely NHLer)**
75 (often 15 then 60)
Example: too many
**Group 5 (16% likely NHLer)**
60 (often 15 then 45)
Example: too many
________________________
There’s sort of a top group that might be technically group 0 of mitch Marner at the low end McDavid at the high that is on average one player, or maybe two, per draft
The 2015 draft just had 3 of them
It’s tough to post about drafts in detail without a deluge of numbers
4 Comments
Tweet – https://twitter.com/ByronMBader/status/1821934288545399189
The “groups” Bader references are 5 groups that he classifies draftable players into based on their probability of becoming NHLers. Here’s a tweet with background on that system
https://twitter.com/ByronMBader/status/1813254635609813344
>Teams always talk about wanting to draft an “impact” player with their pick, especially the high ones.
>Impact star players mostly come from two small groups. There’s 5 ways I’ve started grouping players in terms of their normalized production within their draft year. Here’s a look at the forwards…
>Group 1, a very small elite group, is the most likely to make the NHL (76%) as well as become a star (43%).
>Group 2 is a larger but still rather small group where still 60% turn into NHLers and 20% turn into stars.
>Group 3 is a large group of above average producers. 35% of them make the NHL and 5% turn into stars.
>Group 4 is largely a younger low producing DY group. 18% make the NHL and ~0.5% turn into stars.
>Group 5 is mostly low producing older prospects. 16% make the NHL and almost none turn into stars. This is a huge group that makes up nearly 50% of forwards drafted every year.
>As to what’s in the groups specifically. There’s a lot of iterations for each group. As well, as of right now I don’t fully want to reveal what’s in each group (once it’s on the line it’s on the line forever!). So for now I’ll just keep that to myself.
Just to reiterate before the comments roll in: NHLe alone predicts drafts better than NHL mgmt and ideally is used among many tools
Ron Francis and co. really seem to be savvy evaluators.
For more context in terms of groups
Typical point totals we see in drafting are roughly as follows in the canadian major junior leagues for forwards in year before the draft and their draft year, combined on average:
_______________________
**Group 1 (76% likely NHLer)**
150 (often 60 points then 90)
Example: brayden point, shane Wright
**Group 2 (60% likely NHLers)**
120 (often 45 points then 75)
Example: Travis Konecny, jagger firkus (on pace for)
**Group 3 (35% likely NHLer)**
90 (often 30 points then 60 points)
Example: jared mccann, david goyette
**Group 4 (18% likely NHLer)**
75 (often 15 then 60)
Example: too many
**Group 5 (16% likely NHLer)**
60 (often 15 then 45)
Example: too many
________________________
There’s sort of a top group that might be technically group 0 of mitch Marner at the low end McDavid at the high that is on average one player, or maybe two, per draft
The 2015 draft just had 3 of them
It’s tough to post about drafts in detail without a deluge of numbers