What should we expect from Will Smith in his first season with the San Jose Sharks? Start by looking at his expected role with the Sharks and why he should have plenty of opportunity to get playing time. Then, examine players in similar situations to Smith, top 10 picks who played one college season after their draft, and how they performed in their final NCAA and rookie NHL seasons. Finally, analyze the averages of those players and what are realistic scoring expectations for Will Smith in his first full NHL season.
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6 Comments
O u changed the start time, I'm guessing this has something to do with the big Ceci/Emberson trade that just came down the pipe!
I think Will has around 45-55 points and goes from winger to center at the deadline after we trade Granlund.
Decided to do some math on the data you provided and the estimates suggest 25G and 39 or 40A. Personally I think your estimates are more in line with what will happen.
Keller:
21G-24A-31GP NCAA = 0.677 GPG, 0.774 APG
23G-42A-82GP NHL = 0.280 GPG (41.4% of NCAA), 0.512 APG (66.2% of NCAA)
Jost:
16G-19A-33GP NCAA = 0.485 GPG, 0.576 APG
12G-10A-65GP NHL = 0.185 GPG (38.1% of NCAA), 0.154 APG (26.7% of NCAA)
Mittelstadt:
11G-19A-34GP NCAA = 0.324 GPG, 0.559 APG
12G-13A-77GP NHL = 0.156 GPG (48.1%), 0.169 APG (30.1%)
Zegras:
11G-25A-33GP NCAA = 0.333 GPG, 0.758 APG
3G-10A-24GP NHL = 0.125 GPG (37.5%), 0.417 APG (55.0%)
Beniers:
20G-23A-37GP NCAA = 0.541 GPG, 0.622 APG
24G-33A-80GP NHL = 0.300 GPG (55.5%), 0.413 APG (66.4%)
Johnson:
8G-29A-32GP NCAA = 0.250 GPG, 0.906 APG
16G-24A-79GP NHL = 0.202 GPG (80.8%), 0.304 APG (33.6%)
Cooley:
22G-38A-39GP NCAA = 0.564 GPG, 0.974 APG
22G-24A-82GP NHL = 0.268 GPG (47.5%), 0.293 APG (30.1%)
Total:
109G-177A-239GP NCAA = 0.456 GPG, 0.741 APG
112G-156A-489GP NHL = 0.229 GPG (50.2%), 0.319 APG (43.0%)
Smith:
25G-46A-41GP NCAA = 0.610 GPG, 1.122 APG
Applying the average changes, Smith would get 50.2% of his GPG which would be 0.306. Over the course of 82 games that's 25.1 goals. He'd get 43.0% of his APG which would be 0.482. Over the course of 82 games that's 39.5 assists.
His linemates will play a big part in his point totals. I’m picturing Bordeleau-Smith-Kostin as a poor man’s BC line. Seems like they’d have a similar dynamic.
Again, a very interesting episode. I liked the comps as it is hard to find a way to try and predict what a player will or will not do when they start their NHL careers, let alone a a professional.
However, I part ways with you in one respect. I do not think W. Smith ends up in the top-six. As I stated in a previous episode I think W. Smith's game has big defensive liabilities, so to protect him and the team IMO he should play on the third line. Let me explain my reasoning.
As you rightly stated, rookies tend to not be good on defense or playing in a structured environment that the NHL is. The proof is in the stats you researched. Use Bords as an example. He showed creativity in the offensive zone in his cup of coffee at the end of the season before last, but his defense was non-existent. He was exciting and frustrating. Giving up as much as he gave. Not playing like a pro but more like he did in Michigan.
Not to say that W. Smith will be that bad but the point is still there. The other rookie is Celebrini which all agree has a better all around game. He will be less of a liability than W. Smith.
I believe they keep the Lund line (Eklund, Granlund and Zetterlund) together to start the season. It will be the ONLY LINE that has any continuity and was their best line last season. IF I am right then that will be tagged as line 1 (not that the Sharks really have the talent this season for a first line, but I digress).
This IMO leaves Celebrini as the center for line 2 with Toffoli on his right wing. This makes the most sense to me as GMMG stated he WILL start his season at center.
IMO the Sharks WILL NOT play two rookies on the same line, therefore this leaves line 3 being where they place W. Smith. As you stated, Wennberg is a center, but once again I will refer to GMMG who also stated he wanted W. Smith to start his career at center.
And what better line to be in than the third line with Wennberg on one wing and Coots (if he is healthy) on the other.
Why Coots on the third? He has only played six games in a season and will not be capable of starting in a top-six role. He is defensively responsible and would work well teaching W. Smith the more structured pro game.
I would hope that as the season progresses and Coots is more re-acclimated he can move to line 2 to further support Celebrini. When this happens I think Kostin is the perfect fit at LW for W. Smith and Wennberg.
Lastly, all of this is presuming that the Sharks never move W. Smith to the AHL for a stint if they feel he needs it. Unlike Celebrini, W. Smith's game is not complete and he might need time to acclimate to the pro game.
Moving him to the Cuda for a stint would not be a bad thing and I do not think he would dominate like he did in the NCAA as the AHL is a better skilled league that plays a more structured game.
He does not have his line mates he has had for the last couple seasons and this is something he is going to need to adjust to in addition to all the other adjustments.
I believe W. Smith is an uber-talented center that will be a difference-maker for the Sharks in seasons to come. I am not sold on this season being when he does and I trust that GMMG and the coach will make the best decision for his development.
Just my opinion.
The Hockey Guy has Smith as the C on the 3rd line.