I’d give these predictions more weight if both Ottawa and Buffalo had demonstrated at any point in recent history that they can take hockey seriously before mid-December.
CD23tol
Anyone outside of Detroit be optimistic on Red Wings challenge: Impossible
jobenattor0412
7%? Dang that means we’re winning it all if the Tigers only had .2%!
yeti_eating_cereal
Well They do have Toronto with a 32% of making conference final. Whatever model they use is inaccurate as that’s close to 0
VHDLEngineer
Jesus, I’ve seen what you’ve done for the Tigers and I want that for me
Nick_Waite
The sad part is how true this rings. The team is not significantly better. Their shooting percentage is more likely than not going to come back to earth. I happen to believe Raymond and Edvinsson will take large steps forward, but two guys on one team doing that don’t outweigh the likely shooting regression on a team that missed a very soft playoff bubble. You likely need to get to 96-97 points to get in. I’m not sure they can do that.
space-dot-dot
If I’m reading that right, they project Detroit to be the third worst Eastern Conference team?
laferri2
They aren’t wrong. Our bottom six and most of our defense is AHL level guys.
Our underlying metrics were awful last year and we compounded that by taking a pretty significant step backwards on the roster.
If we lose more than 20 man-games to injury between Larkin, Seider, and Raymond we’re likely looking at a lottery pick.
oceanic8675
mjsmith1223
At the bottom, it says probability based on 50000 simulations. What software is being used for those simulations?
aintnochallahbackgrl
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Agreeable_Abroad_82
That’s ok, last year he had the New Jersey Devils and the Calgary Flames making the playoffs and Washinton had a 6% to make it. Games aren’t played on paper. The analytics are still right most of the time, though, but athletes don’t work like that – they’ll thrive seeing that their team is an underdog.
slabby
Is that wrong, though? Look at that defense and goaltending. Like, don’t get me wrong, I want them to do well, but it’s going to be tough. That is *not* a very strong roster.
dylanisbored
The athletic is garbage. Sharing their stuff should actually be banned on this sub. Idk the last time they put something out that was not rage bait
HighSeas4Me
I mean did the Wings get any better this offseason? Keeping Lalonde was a gamble too.
spoonyfork
Hockey is not a math equation to solve. It is played by real people on real ice. Mathy speculation like this is fun for some people and go have fun but my god I really don’t want to hear it.
Motown27
If sports predictions were reliable, they wouldn’t have to play the games.
dsled
Just like the Tigers had a 0.2% chance to make the playoffs in August.
Models like these are kinda fun but literally anything can happen.
BehemothManiac
It’s Dom, it belongs in garbage.
jfstompers
I hope we’re not that bad but I get it. This team on paper has a lot of warts.
Valace2
based on this roster he is spot on.
Copp, Fischer, Motte, Veleno, and Rasmussen had a total of 122 points combined.
122 for 5 guys. Berggren will be buried on the 4th line and played maybe 9 minutes a game, and Watson is well Watson isn’t so good at hockey.
This team is gonna struggle to score, Gustufsson isn’t Ghost and Tarasenko turns 33 this year and isn’t the same player he was.
Face facts folks, this team is one Larkin injury away from being a lottery team.
probablyindecisive
He’s higher on Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and UTAH?!
This guy isn’t just high on those teams.
1on1withundertaker
One of the Winged Wheel guys have the red wings 7th in the Atlantic. That’s not too far off from whatever this is. Don’t get mad at the pessimism, get mad that this “rebuild” is taking over a decade to actually have a team to get your hopes up for
naked_feet
It definitely seems that the impression from beat writers and stat nerds around the league is that the team got worse over the off-season.
I don’t think many of those people watched those games down the stretch — or even many Wings games throughout the year. When they were on, they were *on*.
Take away just a few of those games from either dead-streak and they were solidly in the playoffs.
detroitttiorted
Oh boy back to this subs roots: homers getting upset because the Wings are low on a list
ClosPins
Utah’s too low. They are going to surprise people.
28 Comments
The worst part is how much higher he is on Ottawa
I’d give these predictions more weight if both Ottawa and Buffalo had demonstrated at any point in recent history that they can take hockey seriously before mid-December.
Anyone outside of Detroit be optimistic on Red Wings challenge: Impossible
7%? Dang that means we’re winning it all if the Tigers only had .2%!
Well
They do have Toronto with a 32% of making conference final. Whatever model they use is inaccurate as that’s close to 0
Jesus, I’ve seen what you’ve done for the Tigers and I want that for me
The sad part is how true this rings. The team is not significantly better. Their shooting percentage is more likely than not going to come back to earth. I happen to believe Raymond and Edvinsson will take large steps forward, but two guys on one team doing that don’t outweigh the likely shooting regression on a team that missed a very soft playoff bubble. You likely need to get to 96-97 points to get in. I’m not sure they can do that.
If I’m reading that right, they project Detroit to be the third worst Eastern Conference team?
They aren’t wrong. Our bottom six and most of our defense is AHL level guys.
Our underlying metrics were awful last year and we compounded that by taking a pretty significant step backwards on the roster.
If we lose more than 20 man-games to injury between Larkin, Seider, and Raymond we’re likely looking at a lottery pick.
At the bottom, it says probability based on 50000 simulations. What software is being used for those simulations?
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
That’s ok, last year he had the New Jersey Devils and the Calgary Flames making the playoffs and Washinton had a 6% to make it. Games aren’t played on paper. The analytics are still right most of the time, though, but athletes don’t work like that – they’ll thrive seeing that their team is an underdog.
Is that wrong, though? Look at that defense and goaltending. Like, don’t get me wrong, I want them to do well, but it’s going to be tough. That is *not* a very strong roster.
The athletic is garbage. Sharing their stuff should actually be banned on this sub. Idk the last time they put something out that was not rage bait
I mean did the Wings get any better this offseason? Keeping Lalonde was a gamble too.
Hockey is not a math equation to solve. It is played by real people on real ice. Mathy speculation like this is fun for some people and go have fun but my god I really don’t want to hear it.
If sports predictions were reliable, they wouldn’t have to play the games.
Just like the Tigers had a 0.2% chance to make the playoffs in August.
Models like these are kinda fun but literally anything can happen.
It’s Dom, it belongs in garbage.
I hope we’re not that bad but I get it. This team on paper has a lot of warts.
based on this roster he is spot on.
Copp, Fischer, Motte, Veleno, and Rasmussen had a total of 122 points combined.
122 for 5 guys. Berggren will be buried on the 4th line and played maybe 9 minutes a game, and Watson is well Watson isn’t so good at hockey.
This team is gonna struggle to score, Gustufsson isn’t Ghost and Tarasenko turns 33 this year and isn’t the same player he was.
Face facts folks, this team is one Larkin injury away from being a lottery team.
He’s higher on Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and UTAH?!
This guy isn’t just high on those teams.
One of the Winged Wheel guys have the red wings 7th in the Atlantic. That’s not too far off from whatever this is. Don’t get mad at the pessimism, get mad that this “rebuild” is taking over a decade to actually have a team to get your hopes up for
It definitely seems that the impression from beat writers and stat nerds around the league is that the team got worse over the off-season.
I don’t think many of those people watched those games down the stretch — or even many Wings games throughout the year. When they were on, they were *on*.
Take away just a few of those games from either dead-streak and they were solidly in the playoffs.
Oh boy back to this subs roots: homers getting upset because the Wings are low on a list
Utah’s too low. They are going to surprise people.
Dom’s model hates the Wings big time, nothing new