Copying from https://twitter.com/EmeraldCityHky/status/1844103286112256416
I'll start with this: I like Joey. He's worked very hard to get here and is an easy guy to root for. I think he could be a legit NHL starter
That said, this extension is very risky and I don't like it. Here's why:
First, the timing. Would the price have been that much higher after another good season? The potential cost of another ~1m of AAV seems like a low price to pay to really see what you have in a goalie with only 61 career starts.
Second, the risk of betting on Daccord. Again, I like him. But I get concerned when looking at the history of deals like this. The closest current comps look like Petersen, Husso, Merzlikins, Demko, and Ullmark. The early indicators for Joey are good, but you could say the same for any of those 5.
At such a volatile position, the downside of it going bad is much greater than the upside of it going well. If Daccord goes the Demko or Ullmark route, this contract is a steal and probably saves you ~3M. But if he turns out like the other 3 examples, it's crippling on a 5-year term, especially with Grubauer's contract on the books. It's a high-risk, low-reward bet (from a GM with a subpar track record of goalie contracts. Oh yeah, Scott Darling is another good comp).
Then there's the big picture: Kraken now have 4th-most expensive G tandem in the NHL next year. (They're the only team in that range without a star (~$8m+) goalie fwiw). Even with a Gru buyout, it doesn't get much cheaper because you have to pay for his replacement.
If you're stacked and a cup contender, this can be workable. See: TBL, FLA. That's not Seattle. Having that much $ in net is going to prevent additions elsewhere on a roster that's really going to need them.
Yes, ELCs are coming. The cap's going up (as it does for everyone btw). But room for error gets very slim with guys like Stephenson, Larsson, Montour already signed at or above market value for non-prime years. Taken together, these risks could save Francis his job, but if they don't, the next GM will seriously lack flexibility.
In summary, while Daccord looks promising and I'm happy for him, this contract is a high-risk, low-reward bet for a team that can't afford for it to go wrong.
To be clear, those are my (RJ's) thoughts on it. Looking forward to having Dylan weigh in on the next Deep Dive.
There's also a ton of stuff I left out for brevity sake. If you want to join me to really discuss it in detail, Armchair GM Stream is on Friday!
by SiccSemperTyrannis
6 Comments
I’m generally in agreement with RJ here. I especially agree his points about how this signing is “high-risk, low-reward” and how even with a Grubauer buyout the Kraken will have one of the most expensive goalie tandems in the NHL next season without having a star goalie.
$5million is a big overpayment for Joey.
I think the “don’t pay goalies” days might be coming to an end.
I’d personally say “high-risk, moderate-reward” but totally agree with everything else.
The last 5 months feels like a massive over-reaction to the results of 23-24. Francis changed from being slow and steady to taking huge risky swings, doling out years and dollars like it’s nothing. I guess his back is against the wall and he it’s hit or quit, but I don’t like these odds.
I continue to be reminded of something a Hurricanes fan shared when GMRF was hired in Seattle. You’ll like him, until you hate him. He keeps making weird and risky bets with the Kraken cap.