**Bio**
Cole Caufield was born on January 2, 2001 Mosinee, Wisconsin. He started skating when he was two years old and showed an interest in hockey early on ( [See him practice](https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=651423772006972) on his poor brother Brock). He played two years in the NCAA with the Wisconsin Badgers, leading the NCAA in points in his second season. In 2021, Caufield won the prestigious Hobey Baker Award, given tot he top NCAA player.
A 5’7″ right shot winger, Caufield was drafted in the first round, 15th overall by the Montreal Canadiens in 2019, because the team needed a [‘yeah, goal scorer’](https://youtu.be/UotDS1n6N2A?t=188). He played his first game against the [Calgary Flames April 26, 2021](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-dYYAehIUQ). [His first NHL goal was an OT winner](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jit5gWL5L6M) against the Ottawa Senators on May 1.
As per [CapFriendly](https://www.capfriendly.com/players/cole-caufield), Caufield is playing the last year of his Entry-Level Contract (ELC) and is a RFA at the end of the season.
**Basic Stats and Point distribution**
[Basic Stats](https://preview.redd.it/pz809mqz2kra1.png?width=737&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=c1214a6ad0461de577fe6fc62268a3ca60efdbf3)
[Point distribution](https://preview.redd.it/j71lci5k4kra1.png?width=481&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=d67a8aa1ccdc572f89f1c9495a8ea57ff6365410)
49 of Caufield’s 113 points so far (62%) are goals (his next goal will be his 50th!). 65% of Caufield’s points are scored at Even Strength (EV), 29% on the power play and the rest (6%) with an empty net (so when the team is trying to tie the game).
**Primary Production rate at even strength**
[Caufield’s rank against other NHL player with a minimum of 300 minutes played](https://preview.redd.it/leaxfotb7kra1.png?width=672&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=35f40598afd25bf6ccb7bad59d2666c9458f3a17)
With 1.31 goals per 60 minutes of EV play in the last two years, Cole ranks in the 97% percentile for goal scored. It’s a different story for primary assists where he ranks in the 17% percentile. In terms of EV points, his current production would place him on the second line of most NHL teams.
**Advanced Stats – On Ice**
More info on advanced stats terms and concepts: [Beyond the Box Score – An Intro to Hockey Analytics](https://www.nhl.com/kraken/news/beyond-box-score-intro-to-hockey-analytics/c-335471754)
Note: the following results are not adjusted for deployment, quality of competition, quality of teammates, etc.
https://preview.redd.it/adsl1k7w5kra1.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=13dabd850a5e1f96d1da7eb2ff13976c4031f7c4
Caufield’s on-ice stats are average compared to his teammates but there was an improvement in shot attempt share (CF%) compared to last year. Not surprisingly he ranks pretty high for expected goals for (xGF/60) but very low for expected goals against (xGA/60). Lots of goals are scored while he’s on the ice and while that makes for some very fun hockey for fans, it’s likely a different story for coaches. In terms of expected goals share (xGF%), there is a little bit of a drop, but there is a likely explanation (stay tuned!).
**Advanced Stats – Goals Above Replacement (GAR), Isolated Impacts and RAMP**
When stats take into consideration point production, on-ice stats, teammates, opposition and deployment.
[progress!](https://preview.redd.it/itgb4hfj9kra1.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=ac9e2a85aed7c02ce72c1ae29b8e318ed9d2e7e2)
The big circles in this visual represent Caufield’s rank among all other players (other players being the small bubbles). There is an improvement this season compared from last year’s results (2020-21 is too small of a sample size to be significant).
Note: a player’s GAR value needs to be over 0 to be considered ‘above replacement’ (a replacement player is the 13th forward or the 7th defensemen).
​
[Z Score of 0 = league average](https://preview.redd.it/6nv1980hlkra1.png?width=1062&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=eaf76f77d07e726473cafe51b03a2a5c37ffaee7)
The gap between Goals For/60 (GF/60) and Expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60) is either shooting luck or shooting talent (or maybe both!). In Caufield’s case, pretty sure it’s mostly shooting talent.
​
https://preview.redd.it/ckrtabiebkra1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=a82b1e288f4933380460895a46c91e9ee8d9aa91
Caufield is an amazing offensive player but his impact on the game is diminished by his defence. He’s also below average the power play, probably because opposing teams know all about his killer shot and they adapted.
His GAR career graph showed improvement from last year, but where is this improvement coming from? Answer: His defensive play improved. EVD still has an overall negative impact, but it’s not as poor as last year. Martin St-Louis mentioned that Caufield doesn’t need to improve on his goal scoring; he’s already elite. He will need to learn to be a more complete player to help his team in the long run. And looks like he’s been doing that:
​
[Evolving-hockey detailed GAR calculations](https://preview.redd.it/nqs2h4dsckra1.png?width=1048&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=6c22e47bd780d27916b695a487969f76bb463cf3)
Caufield went from a total EVD of -5.7 in 2021-22 to an EVD of -3.1 this season. You might ask, how come? his expected goals against per 60 went from 3.13 to 3.21 (see the earlier ‘on-ice section’), that’s not improvement! But we need to consider CONTEXT!!
**Context**
During the [2021-22 season](http://puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20212022&positions=clr&team=mtl&group_by=player&min_toi=500), Caufield spent 26% of his EV minutes against elite competition; he was relatively sheltered.
https://preview.redd.it/l5laameeekra1.png?width=911&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=883b7d0bf73b971e6ddf395eb93f741abc1b6c05
This season, [39% of his minutes](http://puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20222023&positions=clr&team=mtl&group_by=player&min_toi=500) was against elite competition. That’s why the GAR calculations is showing an improvement in defensive results from last year; while he had similar ‘raw’ on-ice results, he had tougher minutes.
https://preview.redd.it/tzjato5vekra1.png?width=904&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=f436018f8cba4685bddf1e136a166b7f6ba49f53
**Summary**
Caufield is an amazing offensive player with exceptional, top of the league goal scoring abilities. Because of his elite shot, his actual goals will likely always be higher than whatever advanced stats model say his ‘expected goals’ should be. His defensive results are bad, but we need to keep in mind he’s playing against difficult opponents and that he’s still very young. On a better team, he wouldn’t play against top line like he’s doing now. On the bright side, while his defence results are still poor, he’s been improving. Caufield will likely never become a defensive specialist, but looks like he’s making notable advancements.
My favorite Caufield moment: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7WkU0D\_zxw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7WkU0D_zxw)
by MinieC
4 Comments
Goal Goalgoal
I’ve been whining & complaining about the lack of complete stats analysis available out there, so decided to write some myself. I think context is super important when looking at a player’s stats, and (IMO) it’s missing in the usual media coverage surrounding the team (I get it, stats are boring for most people so they don’t generate a lot of engagement).
Thought you might be interested in Caufield’s defensive improvements. I know I was when I started looking at his stats more closely.
I still think there’s a lot of room for all of the expected stats to improve. So many gaps in the data or questions raised by the numbers get chalked up to shooting luck when I think there is usually a better explanation that simply hasn’t been discovered yet.
I also wonder about the power play conclusion when the Habs powerplay was clearly in shambles through no fault of Caufields. Several terrible setups took way too long to be abandoned including having 5 forwards or employing Mike Hoffman in any fashion.
My favorite Caufield moment: https://youtu.be/-8AVNFBVWNs
Thanks for posting, OP. Caufield is damn fun hockey player to watch