This has been a conversation in hockey circles for a long time, so I put this board together.
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23 Comments
just some fun exception examples: Ondřej Palát (7th round), Martin St Louis (undrafted), Blake Coleman (3rd round), Barclay Goodrow (undrafted), Anthony Cirelli (3rd round), Brandon Hagel (4th round), Pierre-Édouard Bellemare (undrafted), Ross Colton (4th round), Alex Killorn (3rd round), Carter Vehaeghe (3rd round), Mathieu Joseph (4th round), Cedric Pacquette (4th round), and Nick Paul (4th round)…
I went back to 2011 for Palat and WAYyyyy back for St. Louis, but most of the rest fall in the years of the video. I liked the video and just added examples for fun!
However you are strictly looking at points produced as the single metric of success.
My short answer is probably yes and no it really all depends on how the draft class is and and who you select that’s what gives a pick it’s value. Like for this year every pick in this draft should be worth more then any other draft just on how deep it already is looking in February. So I guess you can say draft picks are going up but they will be back down in value after this draft
I would love to see Shannon do a video on the most middle-est draft picks (middle-est meaning the player (or players if there were an even number of drafts that year) that marks the half way point through the draft each year) for the last 10/15/20 years (or however long Shannon wants to go back) and seeing who became great players, who never saw NHL ice time, and who were very average players.
Very helpful..the usual insightful analysis fm THG..🌿🎯🥅🏒💥✅
This man just does all the research that we don’t want to, thank you
i like this type of content, one can never get enough knowledge when it comes to hockey. I wonder if GMs watch your videos to learn thing or two.
Zipf's law. Outside of the players who are expected to play in the NHL that season, each draft pick is worth approximately its inverse of its number. So a 30th overall pick is worth about half of the 15th overall and about double the 60th overall.
This isn't exact, but it is amazing how close it is.
It's a numbers game. Even if the chances of a pick hitting are low, the more picks you have the more chances you have to hit a home run. The more picks you have the more resources you have to wheel and deal at the deadline. No matter how you slice it, Tampa overpaid. Like any other resource, if you waste it for no reason, it will eventually catch up with you. If deals like this become the norm, Tampa will be in a very tough state in a 5 years, but if they win a couple more times before that happens, it's worth it.
I think this list is a bit one-dimensional. Points are the mark of a forward having success, but for example, the 2014 draft saw a defenseman get picked 1st overall, and Aaron Ekblad has been a top-pairing guy for basically his entire career. You won't find him as one of the top 5 point-producers, but he may be one of the 5 best players from that draft class. And even if he's not, Igor Shesterkin, selected 118th overall in 2014, surely IS, but goaltenders are completely excluded from this analysis. So I understand that you need a simple metric for comparing picks, and points is simple, but it does not tell the whole story.
Mid to late rounds are like that hottie you score in a bar when yshe sits on your lap. Good times!
You'll notice there's more 2nd rounders there than late 1st rounders. Teams going all in makes sense
Draft picks may be overrated but still necessary. A team still needs to fill-up an AHL line up and bring up players to replace those that leave or get injured. So, perhaps the value of the return for draft pricks should be reduced but a team still needs to keep some in order to continue the flow of players in the organization.
So 5th, 6th and 7th round picks are kind of useless.
Not if you're the lightning. Point, kuch, palat… I could go on. All instrumental in making the bolts what they are today.
Why is the only focused on forwards?
LOL. Mid and Late round draft picks.
It's becoming like basketball. We will trade you (6) 2nd round picks for this guy. 2nd round picks in basketball mean nothing. 4th round and later in hockey starting to mean nothing now.
Kotkaniemi just wooshed past Farabee
Damn I was hoping Jesper bratt broke into the top 5 for 2016. 162 overall.
This year draft definitely has gems on The second round
If you look at your favorite teams draft classes in the last 10-15 years , you would see a lot of the 3rd-6th rd picks have been crucial depth pieces of the team, even if they didn’t score alot of points
Cough cough, Robertson, Hintz, Benn, Pavelski. Drafting is important.
That Jersey is too distracting!