Mike Matheson Stats Analysis

**Bio**

[Mike Matheson](https://www.nhl.com/player/mike-matheson-8476875) was born on February 27, 1994, in Poin Pointe-Claire, QC . A 6’2″ left shot defenseman, Matheson was drafted in the first round, 23rd overall by the Florida Panthers in 2012. He played his first NHL game against the Winnipeg Jets on March 23, 2016 and scored his first goal against the Tampa Bay lightning on October 18, 2016.

In his second season with the Panthers, Matheson signed an eight-year, $39M contract extension with an AAV of $4.875. Florida must have had a lot of faith in him since the contract was unusually long and expensive for an unproven player. Matheson apparently didn’t live up to that contract and was traded to the Pittsburgh Penguin on September 24, 2020 in exchange for Patric Hörngvist. The transaction was consider a [bad contract for a longer bad contract](https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/370215).

Dom Luszczyszyn at the The Athletic evaluated Matheson’s contract to be the [6th worst in the league in 2019](https://theathletic.com/1070877/2019/07/11/by-the-numbers-a-look-at-the-10-worst-contracts-in-hockey/)

>He’s 25 now, what you see is what you get and from this vantage point that seems to be a run of the mill bottom pairing guy that’s fed far too many minutes. He doesn’t drive play, is frequently out-scored as a result, doesn’t put up points, and he doesn’t play tough minutes.

And again in 2020, he was considered to have been awarded the [9th worst contract](https://theathletic.com/2153756/2020/11/04/nhl-worst-contracts-2020/) after the trade to Pittsburgh:

>He’s currently graded to be below replacement level, a third paring defenceman at best and is being paid almost $5 million per year for six more seasons.

Yikes. Matheson has been labelled a bad contract for most of his NHL career. This cannot be easy for a competitive athlete knowing so publicly you’re not perceived to perform to expectations.

Matheson has three years left of his ‘one of the worst in the league’ 8-year contract. How did he fare while playing his last 2 years with Pittsburgh and his first year in Montreal?

**Basic Stats**

|Season|GP|TOI/GP|G|A1|A2|Total|P/GP|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|44|18:38|5|6|5|16|0.36|
|21-22|74|18:48|11|11|9|31|0.42|
|22-23|48|24:27|8|18|8|34|0.71|
|3 years|166|20:23|24|35|22|81|0.49|

In terms of offensive production, Matheson produce 0.36 P/GP in 2020-21, then 0.42 P/GP in 2021-22 and a staggering increase of 0.71 P/GP with the habs. Makes you think Matheson exploded offensively with the habs right? well, not really.

**Point Distribution**

|Season|EV|PP|SH|With EN|Against EN|Total|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|14|1|0| |1|16|
|21-22|28|2|0| |1|31|
|22-23|21|9|2|1|1|34|
|3 years|63|12|2|1|3|81|

With the habs, Matheson had more TOI and more responsibilities on the Power Play and on the Penalty Kill. Here’s Matheson TOI distribution while in Pittsburgh vs Montreal:

**Time on Ice (TOI)**

|Season|TOI|EV|PP|SH|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|18:38|17:35|0:58|0:06|
|21-22|18:48|17:51|0:43|0:14|
|22-23|24:27|18:59|3:11|2:17|

Matheson spent very little time on the PP in Pittsburgh while he had over 3 minutes of PP time on average with Montreal. He also spent considerable time on the PK this year. If fact, while he was in the line-up in Montreal, Matheson nearly spent haft the games on the ice.

In order to even things out, below is Matheson’s production rate at EV (primary points per 60 minutes of play):

**Rate of production at Even Strength (no special teams, no empty nets)**

|Season|EV G/60|Rank\*|%|EV A1/60|Rank\*|%|Primary Points/60|Rank\*|%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|0.39|19/210|91%|0.47|28/210|87%|0.86|17/210|92%|
|21-22|0.51|8/240|97%|0.37|86/240|64%|0.88|22/240|91%|
|22-23|0.48|14/229|94%|0.68|6/229|97%|1.16|3/229|99%|
|3 year|0.47|7/314|98%|0.49|24/314|92%|0.96|6/314|98%|

*\*Rank vs all Ds with a minimum of 300 minutes played*

In the last three years, Matheson had an amazing offensive production rate at Even Strength. While in Pittsburgh, he ranked in the 92% and 91% percentile (vs all Ds with over 300 minutes of ice time). It wasn’t apparent (his P/GP didn’t seem that impressive) because *he didn’t play much on the Power Play*. Total point production is very much impacted by whether a player plays on the PP or not. We can’t compare the total offensive production of two players when one plays extensively on the PP while the other is not (see also Lehkonen and Danault with their new teams vs MTL).

That being said, let’s mention that in his first year in Montreal, Matheson had **the third best rate of production in the league** for a defensemen (bad contract? what bad contract?? Take that Dom at The Athletic!).

**Advanced Stats – On Ice**

More info on advanced stats terms and concepts: [Beyond the Box Score – An Intro to Hockey Analytics](https://www.nhl.com/kraken/news/beyond-box-score-intro-to-hockey-analytics/c-335471754)

Note: the following results are not adjusted for deployment, quality of competition, quality of teammates, etc.

​

|On-Ice (5v5)|CF%|Team Rank|xGF%|Team Rank|xGF/60|Team Rank|xGA/60|Team Rank|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2020-21|51.13|4/6|50.11|2/6|2.19|2/6|2.18|2/6|
|2021-22|53.97|3/7|54.83|4/7|2.92|2/7|2.40|5/7|
|2022-23|45.85|3/9|43.97|3/9|2.4|4/9|3.06|4/9|

Matheson xGF% in 2021-22 was almost 10% higher than this season in Montreal. Does it mean he was a better player in Pittsburgh? Not necessarily. Pittsburgh was a playoff team last year. Montreal a lottery team plague with record breaking injuries. Comparing the one-ice results of Matheson in Pittsburgh vs Montreal is like comparing apples to oranges. Matheson played a different role (more details in the context section); played tougher minutes on a rebuilding, injury-plagued team. His on-ice results, when compared to his teammates and considering his increased responsibilities in Montreal, are quite good.

**Advanced Stats – Goals Above Replacement (GAR), RAPM and Player Card**

When stats take into consideration point production, on-ice stats, teammates, opposition and deployment.

https://preview.redd.it/b80cc2ffz4ua1.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=0545e1e209b93d94a3067f2f6ff645b23dd8ce2b

According to evolving-hockey’s GAR model, Matheson was not close to being a replacement-level player during his contract extension (take that Dom at The Athletic!) other than… his first year with Montreal (WTF? he had the 3rd best offensive production at EV????? how can this even be possible??). If you’re confused about this, I am as well. Let’s look at this a little deeper.

Here are Matheson’s RAPM results from 2019-20 to 2021-22. Well above league average offensively and slightly above league average defensively. Overall a net positive impact. These results are matching what we know of Matheson and his offensive production at EV.

​

https://preview.redd.it/tg414p2z05ua1.png?width=1062&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=5925b12224e2d49b3b8e39b1c4e6cb43d1ece48b

And then in Montreal – it’s the opposite. Did Matheson suddenly became weaker than league average offensively while he had his best offensive production ever…?? Probably not. Did he become above league average defensively? Maybe. Looks like evolving-hockey’s complex regression calculations failed here (i.e. they probably attributed his offensive results to other players while he got credited defensive results that might have not belong to him. RAPM/GAR calculations aren’t an exact science; these calculations might have benefited from a greater sample size in a less chaotic, injury-riddled team).

https://preview.redd.it/zjr8l2lg05ua1.png?width=1062&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=ec37903fa241f1dcf91c52f7a8a225d9675052f5

**Player Cards**

Below is Matheson’s ‘player card’, in the 3 years prior to being traded to the habs (I will reinstate that this player was considered to have been awarded one of the worst contract in the league…looks pretty good to me!)

https://preview.redd.it/745cc2ck25ua1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=08d09fecf65101ad2ea3cceb2266f50f2558d0ab

And this year in Montreal

​

https://preview.redd.it/zksohuqz25ua1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=f3c9fbd5409ae9190fcc275f2a57bad61395b465

I must admit, I was confused when I saw these results. But it’s probably explained by context (and I still believe there was some messed up defensive/offensive results distribution in the regression calculations by evolving-hockey) and some bad results on the special teams, which may or may not be the player’s fault (special teams are heavily impacted by coaching strategies). Also, it’s been a while since Matheson was heavily used on the power play or the penalty kill, maybe there was a little rust!

**Context**

In my opinion, this is the most important section in understanding Matheson’s contribution. In his two seasons in Pittsburgh, Matheson mainly played against bottom six players and did amazingly well. That probably explains why Matheson’s ‘advanced stats’ looked so great in Pittsburgh; he wasn’t playing tough minutes or given the opportunities to play tough minutes. He was the equivalent of the guy overqualified for his job.

https://preview.redd.it/gge3zuwf55ua1.png?width=1069&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=0637a2da6aa53953073a439ff1f19897d80501c8

When he was traded to Montreal, he went from the equivalent of an admin assistant, working for an established, well oiled, structured and successful company to playing the role of CEO of a struggling, chaotic organisation. Of course his on-ice results were going to suffer; he just didn’t have the support he had previously and his responsibilities increased. So yeah, his advanced stats suffered, but it’s still good when considering context.

https://preview.redd.it/31pqn6j675ua1.png?width=911&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=67e7870d44bc84efcb96ddadec7df9aeba262656

**Summary**

Matheson is an offensive gifted, puck moving defenseman who, after several years of being labelled ‘a bad contract’ got the opportunity to show what he was capable of when given additional minutes and responsibilities. He raised to the occasion in Montreal, showed promising leadership qualities and hopefully will continue to perform well for the Habs for years to come.

by MinieC