[Drance] Canucks offseason moves: Where are they better? And where are they worse? Analyzing the club’s off-season moves, posture, depth and trouble spots using Dom Luszczyszyn’s Net Rating model.
[Drance] Canucks offseason moves: Where are they better? And where are they worse? Analyzing the club’s off-season moves, posture, depth and trouble spots using Dom Luszczyszyn’s Net Rating model.
>First of all, it’s important to note that the big-picture goal of this exercise isn’t to compare the 2022-23 Canucks roster to the upcoming 2023-24 version of the team. We’re not trying to compare how much better the team is than last season’s version so much as we’re attempting to adjudicate how much it has improved itself as a result of the work of Canucks hockey operations this summer. The point is to provide a quick snapshot of the Canucks’ overall team quality and try to anticipate where the roster could still use some work over the balance of this summer. > >Second, when we get into the data, you’ll notice that there’s no projected year-over-year improvement from young players currently on the Canucks roster, nor is there any projected diminishment in effectiveness from the team’s older players. These projections are already factored into the numbers that you will see when we flesh out and compare the team’s before and after offseason glow-up. > >Third — and this one is perhaps the most complex, so I recommend reading the following paragraphs closely — there are four players whose projection does change slightly in the before image and in the after image. Essentially, the NHL training camp version of Luszczyszyn’s model, which he’ll use to preview the Canucks season come September and update teams’ playoff odds throughout the season, is based on more specific ice-time projections. Because we’re not specifying ice-time projections for this exercise, the model is left to its own devices and makes some of its own assumptions about player usage. For example, the model looks at the quality of Vancouver’s blueliners and assumes that Hughes and Hronek will log more ice time next season than they did last year, which gives them a small bump in their offensive rating. It dings Myers for the opposite reason. Up front, meanwhile, the model looks at Vancouver’s bottom six and assumes that Vancouver’s top line will get more minutes, not realizing that Mikheyev is likely to play top-line minutes at five-on-five. As such, Mikheyev drops a point in offensive rating when we go from last season to next season, although it’s worth noting that the drop isn’t actually all that significant.
lol, Tyler Myers and Brock Boeser are equally bad at defense. ^(Yes, I’m aware one is a forward and the other is a “defenseman.”)
Judge24601
FYI the numbers that don’t add up are due to rounding: eg beauvilllier would be something like -1.4, -1.3, -2.7 => -1, -1, -3
overall though this is pretty encouraging. huge jump in defensive rating is great. Still around a wild card team which is what I expect, but I like how they got there, with a fairly conservative approach.
If Martin or Silovs can be better than god-awful that will also boost the numbers a lot
SubbansBigBlackhawk
Man cant believe we gave up some actual value for Studnicka lol. Im completely fine with trading for reclamation projects when they dont cost anything (ex. Bear and Kravtsov) but the Studnicka and Dermott trades just give me PTSD of Bennings countless failed reclamation trades.
DissolvingDream
The “After” Tyler Myers is -3/-3 but nets to -7. And Hughes’ net doesn’t add up on either. Am I missing something?
cosalich
Pretty fantastic work by Hronek to get 25% better at offence during free agency.
IPLisBoring
This list is absolutely ridiculous. 3rd, 4th line players should not have this much impact on the team’s rating.
DishwasherFromSurrey
Hronek shouldn’t really count to last year’s scores
NorthernMariner
If Demko is +5 and Martin is -5, but 58GP vs. 24GP, then shouldn’t the final goalie rating be >0?
ovulationwizard
Really shows how much better our top 2 players are, compared to the rest of the team.
Although our eyes while watching the games should tell us the same thing.
Derkdingle
Why did Myers go from a -4 to -3 in Offense?
Broad_Nebula_9736
Best team we’ve had since the Sedin era, especially the defence.
Our top 4 has been completely changed, with only Hughes staying put. Hronek, Cole and Soucy are great additions. I think we’ve got the 2nd best top 4 in the Pacific now, only behind Vegas. Hughes and Hronek on separate lines will be nasty. My only question mark is Soucy.
On offence, not much has changed. We’re still young, and I think more of our forwards will have breakout years. I think Petey, Kuzy, Miller and Garland will outproduce their last year’s results. Blueger’s a fantastic pick up for our 3rd line too, but I don’t expect him to produce too much. More of a PK specialist.
Goaltending is a question mark. Demko wasn’t great last year, but I’m blaming that on his injury. In the seasons prior, he looked like a top 10 goalie in the league. Silovs has a good chance of playing the backup role this year. He might even compete for the starting spot if Demko flops in the beginning of the season. Odds of that are slim, but possible. I think Demko’s gonna have his best season in terms of sv% and gaa.
This looks like a playoff team. If I were to guess, it’ll be us, Vegas and Edmonton taking Pacific spots this year. Seattle and LA have good chances at nabbing the 3rd spot too. Flames, Ducks and Sharks will be bottom 3 for sure.
JunoVC
I only have 30 minutes for lunch, can someone TLDR ELI5 if I’m supposed to be outraged or happy.
mrtomjones
Ignoring the scores here, my main concern is with our center depth. Teddy is a 4th line center not third… Not going to be good if we have to run him out there as year so that’s I’ve change that’s going to be rough
John_E_Canuck
This is such a silly model
coltonjeffs
Surprised Joshua is a minus 7 for offense
Key-Investment6888
How has no one pointed out that Kuzmenko’s net rating changed from +8 to +9 despite nothing changed offensively/defensively from him? Lol. This model is…
bcdilfsub
Drance has to rely on questionable statistics because he knows little to nothing about hockey
19 Comments
[Link to tweet](https://twitter.com/ThomasDrance/status/1679202062909988864/photo/1).
A note from the article on Dom’s model
>First of all, it’s important to note that the big-picture goal of this exercise isn’t to compare the 2022-23 Canucks roster to the upcoming 2023-24 version of the team. We’re not trying to compare how much better the team is than last season’s version so much as we’re attempting to adjudicate how much it has improved itself as a result of the work of Canucks hockey operations this summer. The point is to provide a quick snapshot of the Canucks’ overall team quality and try to anticipate where the roster could still use some work over the balance of this summer.
>
>Second, when we get into the data, you’ll notice that there’s no projected year-over-year improvement from young players currently on the Canucks roster, nor is there any projected diminishment in effectiveness from the team’s older players. These projections are already factored into the numbers that you will see when we flesh out and compare the team’s before and after offseason glow-up.
>
>Third — and this one is perhaps the most complex, so I recommend reading the following paragraphs closely — there are four players whose projection does change slightly in the before image and in the after image. Essentially, the NHL training camp version of Luszczyszyn’s model, which he’ll use to preview the Canucks season come September and update teams’ playoff odds throughout the season, is based on more specific ice-time projections. Because we’re not specifying ice-time projections for this exercise, the model is left to its own devices and makes some of its own assumptions about player usage. For example, the model looks at the quality of Vancouver’s blueliners and assumes that Hughes and Hronek will log more ice time next season than they did last year, which gives them a small bump in their offensive rating. It dings Myers for the opposite reason. Up front, meanwhile, the model looks at Vancouver’s bottom six and assumes that Vancouver’s top line will get more minutes, not realizing that Mikheyev is likely to play top-line minutes at five-on-five. As such, Mikheyev drops a point in offensive rating when we go from last season to next season, although it’s worth noting that the drop isn’t actually all that significant.
If you want their full explanations, [read it here](https://theathletic.com/4664331/2023/07/12/canucks-2023-offseason-moves/?source=emp_shared_article).
Didn’t even remember we still had Studnicka
lol, Tyler Myers and Brock Boeser are equally bad at defense. ^(Yes, I’m aware one is a forward and the other is a “defenseman.”)
FYI the numbers that don’t add up are due to rounding: eg beauvilllier would be something like -1.4, -1.3, -2.7 => -1, -1, -3
overall though this is pretty encouraging. huge jump in defensive rating is great. Still around a wild card team which is what I expect, but I like how they got there, with a fairly conservative approach.
If Martin or Silovs can be better than god-awful that will also boost the numbers a lot
Man cant believe we gave up some actual value for Studnicka lol. Im completely fine with trading for reclamation projects when they dont cost anything (ex. Bear and Kravtsov) but the Studnicka and Dermott trades just give me PTSD of Bennings countless failed reclamation trades.
The “After” Tyler Myers is -3/-3 but nets to -7. And Hughes’ net doesn’t add up on either. Am I missing something?
Pretty fantastic work by Hronek to get 25% better at offence during free agency.
This list is absolutely ridiculous. 3rd, 4th line players should not have this much impact on the team’s rating.
Hronek shouldn’t really count to last year’s scores
If Demko is +5 and Martin is -5, but 58GP vs. 24GP, then shouldn’t the final goalie rating be >0?
Really shows how much better our top 2 players are, compared to the rest of the team.
Although our eyes while watching the games should tell us the same thing.
Why did Myers go from a -4 to -3 in Offense?
Best team we’ve had since the Sedin era, especially the defence.
Our top 4 has been completely changed, with only Hughes staying put. Hronek, Cole and Soucy are great additions. I think we’ve got the 2nd best top 4 in the Pacific now, only behind Vegas. Hughes and Hronek on separate lines will be nasty. My only question mark is Soucy.
On offence, not much has changed. We’re still young, and I think more of our forwards will have breakout years. I think Petey, Kuzy, Miller and Garland will outproduce their last year’s results. Blueger’s a fantastic pick up for our 3rd line too, but I don’t expect him to produce too much. More of a PK specialist.
Goaltending is a question mark. Demko wasn’t great last year, but I’m blaming that on his injury. In the seasons prior, he looked like a top 10 goalie in the league. Silovs has a good chance of playing the backup role this year. He might even compete for the starting spot if Demko flops in the beginning of the season. Odds of that are slim, but possible. I think Demko’s gonna have his best season in terms of sv% and gaa.
This looks like a playoff team. If I were to guess, it’ll be us, Vegas and Edmonton taking Pacific spots this year. Seattle and LA have good chances at nabbing the 3rd spot too. Flames, Ducks and Sharks will be bottom 3 for sure.
I only have 30 minutes for lunch, can someone TLDR ELI5 if I’m supposed to be outraged or happy.
Ignoring the scores here, my main concern is with our center depth. Teddy is a 4th line center not third… Not going to be good if we have to run him out there as year so that’s I’ve change that’s going to be rough
This is such a silly model
Surprised Joshua is a minus 7 for offense
How has no one pointed out that Kuzmenko’s net rating changed from +8 to +9 despite nothing changed offensively/defensively from him? Lol. This model is…
Drance has to rely on questionable statistics because he knows little to nothing about hockey