NFL Draft 2023 – Moneyball is a catch-all term for using analytics to build a professional sports roster. Josh Norris is no Brad Pitt, but he did identify one simple trick to evaluate offensive linemen for the NFL Draft with nearly 15 years of data to back it up. NFL Combine OL that have recorded a 4.47 20-yard shuttle or better have gone on to start 84% of their career NFL games. Incredible, and super valuable for the 2023 NFL Draft
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Full OL Short Shuttle Table, and other important Combine nuggets: https://underdognetwork.com/football/2022-nfl-combine-why-it-matters
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30 Comments
Thanks for watching. Here's the full list of 4.47 shuttle times or better since 2010: https://underdognetwork.com/football/2022-nfl-combine-why-it-matters
very cool!!
If you can be a starter at any position in the NFL youāve beaten out so many other players to earn that spot. I agree. Anyone who can win a starting spot is definitely special. Funny how that drill translates to success in the league.
I mean, yeah that's pretty compelling. Have fun working in scouting š
Brilliant Josh!
Sweeet. More please.
Looks like you've uncovered a single variable with a strong correlation to your target outcome variable (starts.) Congratulations. It's cool. Have you tried creating models with multiple variables, and if not, would you like to?
Dear God I loved this! This you correlate 40 yard dash for success in WR please?
Cool! I love moneyball. great idea
for the love of god banish that clink sound from your vids forever, its legit painful
Dillard catching strays
whats the result for OL that were above that treshold? without that comparison the numbers are kinda pointless.
This was a fantastic video Josh, really well done.
great stuff
Leno, pillar?
After bench reps the shuttle and cone times were always my next qualifications for drafting OL in Madden. Can't be a plodder or a tree.
…unless you're Trent Brown. That's my guy.
This is great.
Best part of this video…the background dentist office music š¶š¶š¶. JK, great info as always
I feel like this is putting analytics into practice. Finding the data that actually matters!!!
Boys. Iām concerned, with our darling Josh McCown being hired by the Panthers (keep pounding), does this mean we can expect scheme to not feature double Joshās?
This is one of the smartest, and best made, videos Iāve watched this off-season.
With the cut off being 4.47. What does it look like at 4.5/4.6. As you have taken a arbitrary cut off and found a result which is very interesting but always worried when people do this with continuous variables.
Just like that I finally know who to scream for at 28
Unless I'm wrong, many of these hits were for interior offensive line and not as many tackles. I would think that it is because of the nature of the positions and that this is a better metric for guards and centers, but I may be wrong. Either way, great statistical find.
Interesting, and worthy of more investigation. Several questions come to mind, that I'll put aside for the moment.
Suggestion box: don't put videos like this on a channel about fantasy football. I literally came this close to skipping over it.
Just buzzing through some data, and my first correction makes your numbers better, not worse. Brandon Fusco ran a 4.43 shuttle at the 2011 combine, was drafted in the 6th, and started 87 of 90 games.
Welcome to the club, Jon Gaines II of UCLA!
UCLA G Jon Gaines II (4.45 shuttle)… You just made THE LIST! The only OL prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft to do so. Congratulations on your upcoming career as an 8-year starter.
I would've kept this secret to myself and used it to become a high-dollar draft consultant with the Midas Touch. š
very interesting