> This is a make-or-break year for the Yzerplan and the confidence that it’s instilled in the past. The Red Wings have missed the playoffs for seven straight seasons and it doesn’t feel likely the streak will break this season.
​
> *“I’m still confident that Yzerman is going to make more good decisions than bad ones, but the apparent strategy to improve the team’s depth and not aggressively chase elite talent makes it difficult for this fan to see the team becoming a true Cup contender in the next 3-5 years as the current top prospects enter their prime. I’m more and more worried about getting stuck in the mushy middle.”*
​
> *“While I think they have drafted well since Stevie Y took over, I just don’t see the long-term vision in paying $20 mil in AAV in FA over the last two years for third-liners and depth D (Chariot, Holl, Copp, Compher, etc.). I know they have ample cap space but why tie it up on guys that don’t move the needle.”*
Holiday_Ad2964
It does feel slow, but even Yzerman said it would be. As much as I’d love for us to be on top I do understand the idea of building depth first and then, when appropriate, making some bigger moves to put us where we need to be. But you need depth in order to be in the right position to make those moves.
brenemer
that chart at the bottom about confidence is not very well done in terms of design. like maybe I’m dumber than the average Athletic reader but it took me a while to understand (I think) “56% of the public is less confident in the Yzerplan than last year”
leafssuck69
I think 12th is fair. The only thing that’s making me less confident year over year is that time is running out to get a true superstar, which we will need to win cups
Do_it_for_Iced_Tea
I feel the B+ to A- range is where we belong. This team is getting better year-over-year and I think it’d be foolish to think otherwise. Progress may just not be happening as fast as people like (especially for the public, for whatever reason?). The Wings didn’t have the starting pieces a lot of rebuilding teams have and then they never got the luck.
I definitely disagree with certain moves made, but absolutely nothing yet makes me think this rebuild is off the rails. I personally don’t think we are a playoff team this year, so I think if we do make it in, it’s much more indicative of bad seasons from the Sabres/Sens/Panthers. And I think it’s fine to not be a playoff team right now. The Wings have a top-10 U23 squad, a very deep prospect pool, and still have top draft picks available. Time is our friend.
Funkshow
Key takeaway: neither the public nor the fan base has a whole lot of expertise. But the fan base is a bunch of homers.
ElleCerra
This is a great example of the length of an NHL rebuild being absolutely ridiculous. You have one of the most respected GM’s in the league being second guessed because of a lack of lottery luck. I think you can sit around and discuss the minutia of which contracts were too long and quibble about draft slots but the totality of this process suggests a fundamental issue with roster building in the sport. The team has missed the playoffs for seven years and has drafted top 10 since 2017, Steve has been GM for 5 seasons and two draft picks of his are on the team. Its very difficult to get NHL quality talent from the draft in a reasonable time frame and subsequently reduces your team’s ability to be competitive.
The team at the highest level of confidence won the draft lottery 3 times in 5 years. That’s not a coincidence. Obviously these rankings mean nothing more than knee jerk reactions from fans looking for immediacy, but it should be emblematic of a greater issue for people who have been following this rebuild closely.
Simply put, the process takes too long and no one seems to care to change it.
You have teams that are irrelevant for a decade, sometimes more, and then teams that go on dynastic runs that fatigue even the most ardent supporters. The NFL runs in great cycles (somewhat because of the amount of talent available at all times) but mostly because they draft these guys at 21. Which is unrealistic for hockey, but moving the draft age to 19 is a no-brainer. If you’ve kept tabs on any of our prospects you know that players basically live and die by their D+1.
Players still make it even after a bad showing, but giving players an extra year insulates the team from taking swings on players like Albin Grewe, who looked promising after his draft season but fell to pieces in D+1 and never recovered. Imagine an extra year of eyes on Zadina, Cholowski, Svechnikov. All it takes is one year of additional development time to find a player like Amadeus Lombardi or Carter Mazur, which puts more draft certainty in the hands of teams. This gives your team more certainty when picking high, which is the entire intention of a draft in sport.
Fan and media discourse is entirely surrounded by these *very* stupid platitudes. “Draft for upside”, “trust your scouts”, “review analytics”. Yzerman says it in his press conferences all the time. Its luck. Its luck to draft high, its luck to draft well.
You change the draft age to 19, and then you re-negotiate the deal with the CHL to let players leave for the AHL after they’ve been drafted. “We gave you an extra year of your superstar talent, meet us in the middle”. Its such a simple answer and *no one* ever talks about it. Its always just a pissing contest on whether Yzerman is overrated or whether the NJ Devils are lucky. Its such a waste of time arguing over that stuff instead of finding an actionable solution.
prairiedawg91
How are we ranked middle of the league in trading? Isn’t Yzerman known for fleecing?
Upbeat_Balance2375
While I haven’t loved *every* free agent signing the past two summers, I think Yzerman is doing the best he can to balance between incremental improvements and continuing to build for the future.
I can’t hold the lack of elite talent against Yzerman. We all know it. That’s why when you are a really bad team, you shouldn’t be at the expense of a lottery. It’s the system, not Yzerman missing in drafts or failing to obtain elite talent otherwise (which is extremely difficult). The conversation is totally different if that historically bad Wings team takes Stutzle first overall.
Mendoza8914
Look at the drop in public confidence at the bottom-right. Backing up the Brinks’ truck for Chiarot and Holl has raised some eyebrows.
4plates1barbell
The confidence chart should have been a single axis chart with 0 as the baseline and a row for each of public and team fans. Then you have more confidence to the right, less to the left. Not complicated at all
Athleco
Every single trade we are saying Stevie killed it. We are saying nobody should do business with us because Stevie will just fleece them too. At the time of the trades with the best, most current info available Stevie IS making the right moves. From there it is just a matter of being lucky if things pan out or not.
munkeychunks22
See, I don’t judge Yzerman for anything before he came here. I don’t go by how many years we’ve missed the playoffs. It’s been, what, 4 seasons since he took over? That’s not very long at all and people are already getting impatient? It took him 14 years to win a cup as a player. I’m not saying I wouldn’t be frustrated by that point but good lord, all the man asked for was patience and he at least deserves that. I’m firmly all in on the Yzerplan.
13 Comments
Some key takeaways of the article:
> This is a make-or-break year for the Yzerplan and the confidence that it’s instilled in the past. The Red Wings have missed the playoffs for seven straight seasons and it doesn’t feel likely the streak will break this season.
​
> *“I’m still confident that Yzerman is going to make more good decisions than bad ones, but the apparent strategy to improve the team’s depth and not aggressively chase elite talent makes it difficult for this fan to see the team becoming a true Cup contender in the next 3-5 years as the current top prospects enter their prime. I’m more and more worried about getting stuck in the mushy middle.”*
​
> *“While I think they have drafted well since Stevie Y took over, I just don’t see the long-term vision in paying $20 mil in AAV in FA over the last two years for third-liners and depth D (Chariot, Holl, Copp, Compher, etc.). I know they have ample cap space but why tie it up on guys that don’t move the needle.”*
It does feel slow, but even Yzerman said it would be. As much as I’d love for us to be on top I do understand the idea of building depth first and then, when appropriate, making some bigger moves to put us where we need to be. But you need depth in order to be in the right position to make those moves.
that chart at the bottom about confidence is not very well done in terms of design. like maybe I’m dumber than the average Athletic reader but it took me a while to understand (I think) “56% of the public is less confident in the Yzerplan than last year”
I think 12th is fair. The only thing that’s making me less confident year over year is that time is running out to get a true superstar, which we will need to win cups
I feel the B+ to A- range is where we belong. This team is getting better year-over-year and I think it’d be foolish to think otherwise. Progress may just not be happening as fast as people like (especially for the public, for whatever reason?). The Wings didn’t have the starting pieces a lot of rebuilding teams have and then they never got the luck.
I definitely disagree with certain moves made, but absolutely nothing yet makes me think this rebuild is off the rails. I personally don’t think we are a playoff team this year, so I think if we do make it in, it’s much more indicative of bad seasons from the Sabres/Sens/Panthers. And I think it’s fine to not be a playoff team right now. The Wings have a top-10 U23 squad, a very deep prospect pool, and still have top draft picks available. Time is our friend.
Key takeaway: neither the public nor the fan base has a whole lot of expertise. But the fan base is a bunch of homers.
This is a great example of the length of an NHL rebuild being absolutely ridiculous. You have one of the most respected GM’s in the league being second guessed because of a lack of lottery luck. I think you can sit around and discuss the minutia of which contracts were too long and quibble about draft slots but the totality of this process suggests a fundamental issue with roster building in the sport. The team has missed the playoffs for seven years and has drafted top 10 since 2017, Steve has been GM for 5 seasons and two draft picks of his are on the team. Its very difficult to get NHL quality talent from the draft in a reasonable time frame and subsequently reduces your team’s ability to be competitive.
The team at the highest level of confidence won the draft lottery 3 times in 5 years. That’s not a coincidence. Obviously these rankings mean nothing more than knee jerk reactions from fans looking for immediacy, but it should be emblematic of a greater issue for people who have been following this rebuild closely.
Simply put, the process takes too long and no one seems to care to change it.
You have teams that are irrelevant for a decade, sometimes more, and then teams that go on dynastic runs that fatigue even the most ardent supporters. The NFL runs in great cycles (somewhat because of the amount of talent available at all times) but mostly because they draft these guys at 21. Which is unrealistic for hockey, but moving the draft age to 19 is a no-brainer. If you’ve kept tabs on any of our prospects you know that players basically live and die by their D+1.
Players still make it even after a bad showing, but giving players an extra year insulates the team from taking swings on players like Albin Grewe, who looked promising after his draft season but fell to pieces in D+1 and never recovered. Imagine an extra year of eyes on Zadina, Cholowski, Svechnikov. All it takes is one year of additional development time to find a player like Amadeus Lombardi or Carter Mazur, which puts more draft certainty in the hands of teams. This gives your team more certainty when picking high, which is the entire intention of a draft in sport.
Fan and media discourse is entirely surrounded by these *very* stupid platitudes. “Draft for upside”, “trust your scouts”, “review analytics”. Yzerman says it in his press conferences all the time. Its luck. Its luck to draft high, its luck to draft well.
You change the draft age to 19, and then you re-negotiate the deal with the CHL to let players leave for the AHL after they’ve been drafted. “We gave you an extra year of your superstar talent, meet us in the middle”. Its such a simple answer and *no one* ever talks about it. Its always just a pissing contest on whether Yzerman is overrated or whether the NJ Devils are lucky. Its such a waste of time arguing over that stuff instead of finding an actionable solution.
How are we ranked middle of the league in trading? Isn’t Yzerman known for fleecing?
While I haven’t loved *every* free agent signing the past two summers, I think Yzerman is doing the best he can to balance between incremental improvements and continuing to build for the future.
I can’t hold the lack of elite talent against Yzerman. We all know it. That’s why when you are a really bad team, you shouldn’t be at the expense of a lottery. It’s the system, not Yzerman missing in drafts or failing to obtain elite talent otherwise (which is extremely difficult). The conversation is totally different if that historically bad Wings team takes Stutzle first overall.
Look at the drop in public confidence at the bottom-right. Backing up the Brinks’ truck for Chiarot and Holl has raised some eyebrows.
The confidence chart should have been a single axis chart with 0 as the baseline and a row for each of public and team fans. Then you have more confidence to the right, less to the left. Not complicated at all
Every single trade we are saying Stevie killed it. We are saying nobody should do business with us because Stevie will just fleece them too. At the time of the trades with the best, most current info available Stevie IS making the right moves. From there it is just a matter of being lucky if things pan out or not.
See, I don’t judge Yzerman for anything before he came here. I don’t go by how many years we’ve missed the playoffs. It’s been, what, 4 seasons since he took over? That’s not very long at all and people are already getting impatient? It took him 14 years to win a cup as a player. I’m not saying I wouldn’t be frustrated by that point but good lord, all the man asked for was patience and he at least deserves that. I’m firmly all in on the Yzerplan.