Mastodon
@Buffalo Sabres

[DobberHockey] Ramblings: Frost and Sanderson Extended; Surprising Projections for Kaprizov, Mittelstadt, Novak, Keller, Perron, and More



[DobberHockey] Ramblings: Frost and Sanderson Extended; Surprising Projections for Kaprizov, Mittelstadt, Novak, Keller, Perron, and More

by seeldoger47

1 Comment

  1. seeldoger47

    Casey Mittelstadt

    >Some of the projections made me do a double take. One of them was Pastrnak’s and another absolutely was Mittelstadt. Considering this is a player I wasn’t sure would be in the NHL past the age of 25, that this projection is 70 points in his age-25 season underscores that there are just some players that need several years of development rather than 2-3.

    >This projection is a bit unnerving. Reaching the 70-point mark while skating 15-16 minutes a night, and largely off the top PP unit, is extremely lofty. Some of the playmaking data I use has him in an elite tier, though, so the projections think he’ll be extremely efficient in the minutes he does get. That playmaking data highlights this is a Diet Robert Thomas: few shots, few hits, and way more assists than goals.

    >Despite what my projections are telling me, it’s hard to believe he’ll reach 70 points given his role on the team. More refining likely drops it closer to 60 but I don’t want to take away that this young star has turned into one of the top playmakers in the league. His issue in the fantasy game is Buffalo has so much good offensive depth that he may not even be a top-6 forward on that roster, and he doesn’t bring a lot outside of assists.

    JJ Peterka

    >Despite a loaded farm, Buffalo will be missing Jack Quinn for a large chunk of the season, and that puts Peterka at the top of their Young Winger List. He is still behind Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch, but we did see them get moved around the lineup a bit last season and that leaves Peterka a chance for some sparse top-line minutes. Any injury to Tuch or Skinner could see Peterka get to the top PP unit, too, though Victor Olofsson and Mittelstadt may have something to say about that.

    >The Dobber Guide says to “Expect another small step forward” for Peterka and I agree, but we differ on how big that small step is. He may not be ready to explode to a 70-point season like Mittelstadt, but adding 20 points is reasonable if he’s skating 15:30 a night rather than 13:30, with some top line/top PP time sprinkled in. Maybe he runs into the same problems guys like Martin Necas has in his young career, but I am very bullish on Peterka long-term and believe he starts striding towards his upside in 2023-24.

Write A Comment