Right off the bat, we’re not thrilled about this forecast. Based on the hype the Sabres started to build last season, this feels like a forecast that won’t age well. Buffalo has a very young and exciting team on the rise and projecting a four-point drop feels wrong when everyone in the hockey world expects a playoff breakthrough. We don’t necessarily disagree with that assertion and a 20 percent shot at the playoffs does feel undeservingly low. Oddsmakers see this team closer to 92 points and a 50-50 playoff team.
But.
That doesn’t mean we should flat-out ignore The Model either and that might mean pumping the brakes just a little bit on the hype train. There are plenty of reasons to remain cautious about the Sabres’ chances this season and there’s nothing wrong with being a little late to the party, just to be sure.
Growing pains are real, development isn’t linear and it’s no guarantee Buffalo bursts right through to a playoff spot after coming so close last season. The Sabres are an intriguingly fun team, but their warts are real enough to warrant a “wait and see” approach to this upcoming season.
We hate to be the fun police, but there’s room for a slight reality check before the Sabres truly arrive. As is the case for any young team knocking on the door, they’ll have to prove the time is really now to do so.
### The weaknesses
We’ve spent plenty of time elsewhere on the Sabres’ single biggest weakness. There are only so many ways to say “they’re bad defensively,” and “their work away from the puck is going to be a major issue.” That’s true, but there’s also no need to belabor the point.
We’ll be quick about this: Thompson, for all his offensive gifts, could be one of the least effective defensive players in the league. Like, bottom five. Sixth from the basement, specifically. One team analyst compared his play to the legendary Alex Ovechkin/disconnected Xbox controller GIF.
Thompson’s overall projected Defensive Rating is, in fact, below 38-year-old Ovechkin’s. It’s below Patrick Kane’s. It’s also too close to too many of his teammates’ — Skinner, JJ Peterka, Cozens and Henri Jokiharju are all in the bottom 30 as well, among waves of Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens and Columbus Blue Jackets. For a team with playoff aspirations, that’s a terrible sign. Granato is a good coach who seems to be facing a clear challenge: getting his team to tighten up in one end, at least a little, without sacrificing its identity. Given their other year-over-year improvements, it’s possible. It’s also necessary, especially in an Atlantic Division featuring a couple of other on-the-rise teams.
With Quinn out, Mittelstadt possibly starting the season on the second line and prospect Jiri Kulich likely still a work in progress, the lineup could wind up a bit top-heavy at times. The Athletic’s Matthew Fairburn in July projected Peyton Krebs to open up as the third-line center. Krebs improved as a defensive player last season at a solid cost to his offensive play-driving, which makes slotting him behind Thompson and Cozens an iffy proposition, although he’s still only 21.
The power play, which clicked at a top-10 success rate last season, also might be in for a regression. Only Edmonton’s history-making, typical-rules-don’t-apply unit scored more goals above expected per 60 minutes than the Sabres’ 1.7. Their team shooting percentage with the man advantage was 16.23, fourth in the league.
A recurring theme here has been “Buffalo has loads of offensive talent,” so it’d be unwise to dismiss a repeat performance out of hand. However, it did seem like teams started to figure out Buffalo’s power play in the second half — specifically, cover the tall guy with one of the best one-timers in the league. Thompson scored 5.9 goals per 60 on the power play going into the new year off of 2.5 expected goals per 60. From January onward he still scored on 25 percent of his shots, but he wasn’t getting the same looks, earning 10 fewer shots per 60 and one fewer expected goal per 60 which resulted in a drop to 3.5 goals per 60.
That’s still very good, just not nearly as earth-shattering. That meant fewer weapons taking more shots with much less effectiveness which manifested into significantly weaker team results. Up until January, the Sabres scored 10.6 goals/60 on the power play off of 7.4 expected goals/60. That dropped to 7.0 goals/60 off of 7.1 expected goals/60 afterward. That’s a tangible drop that could have a huge effect on Buffalo’s bottom line. The Sabres need their power play to be elite to make the playoffs.
On the blue line, there probably isn’t enough help for Dahlin and Power, though Mattias Samuelsson did put up a solid 14.8 percent entry denial rate last season per All Three Zones, best among Buffalo’s regular defensemen. He projects to be a solid complementary piece and makes sense as Dahlin’s long-term partner, but the results last season weren’t particularly good. Beyond that, despite the additions of former Boston Bruin Connor Clifton (slotted in as Power’s partner) and Erik Johnson (an Avalanche staple who’s now 35), they’re on track to be overextended in too many places.
All that makes it even harder to trust the Buffalo’s goaltending, arguably the team’s biggest weakness. We already know Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen aren’t the solution. If Devon Levi isn’t either, good luck.
### The best case
The Sabres build off last year’s momentum by maintaining a high level of offense and cleaning up play in their own zone. Thompson learns to defend, Dahlin brings more Norris-caliber play and Power takes a leap forward. Levi proves himself to be the goalie of the present and future. Buffalo makes the playoffs and the young core gains important experience.
### The worst case
The defense is a wreck and it drags down the Sabres’ offense. Levi is overwhelmed, which forces Buffalo to rely on unstable goaltending. The team takes a huge step back from last year and stays out of the playoff race, but doesn’t fall enough in the standings to gain a top pick.
### The bottom line
Everyone loves the Sabres. There probably isn’t a more fun team in the league. A playoff berth would be a fantastic feel-good story that one of the most enthusiastic cities in hockey truly deserves.
We’re not counting it out; there’s a huge amount of upside here. But a lot of internal progression needs to happen without the puck to make it more of a certainty.
Buffalo has improved by leaps and bounds over the last two seasons. It’s possible it’ll do the same this season. But a small step back spent learning to play the right way before taking off as a true Cup contender wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It’s not the unlikeliest either.
distancetomars
Dom as a Leafs fan dislikes the Sabres, so take his model with a grain of salt
2 Comments
https://archive.ph/1LEWO
### [The projection](https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2023/09/21122038/Screenshot-2023-09-21-at-12.18.33-PM.png)
Right off the bat, we’re not thrilled about this forecast. Based on the hype the Sabres started to build last season, this feels like a forecast that won’t age well. Buffalo has a very young and exciting team on the rise and projecting a four-point drop feels wrong when everyone in the hockey world expects a playoff breakthrough. We don’t necessarily disagree with that assertion and a 20 percent shot at the playoffs does feel undeservingly low. Oddsmakers see this team closer to 92 points and a 50-50 playoff team.
But.
That doesn’t mean we should flat-out ignore The Model either and that might mean pumping the brakes just a little bit on the hype train. There are plenty of reasons to remain cautious about the Sabres’ chances this season and there’s nothing wrong with being a little late to the party, just to be sure.
Growing pains are real, development isn’t linear and it’s no guarantee Buffalo bursts right through to a playoff spot after coming so close last season. The Sabres are an intriguingly fun team, but their warts are real enough to warrant a “wait and see” approach to this upcoming season.
We hate to be the fun police, but there’s room for a slight reality check before the Sabres truly arrive. As is the case for any young team knocking on the door, they’ll have to prove the time is really now to do so.
### The weaknesses
We’ve spent plenty of time elsewhere on the Sabres’ single biggest weakness. There are only so many ways to say “they’re bad defensively,” and “their work away from the puck is going to be a major issue.” That’s true, but there’s also no need to belabor the point.
We’ll be quick about this: Thompson, for all his offensive gifts, could be one of the least effective defensive players in the league. Like, bottom five. Sixth from the basement, specifically. One team analyst compared his play to the legendary Alex Ovechkin/disconnected Xbox controller GIF.
Thompson’s overall projected Defensive Rating is, in fact, below 38-year-old Ovechkin’s. It’s below Patrick Kane’s. It’s also too close to too many of his teammates’ — Skinner, JJ Peterka, Cozens and Henri Jokiharju are all in the bottom 30 as well, among waves of Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens and Columbus Blue Jackets. For a team with playoff aspirations, that’s a terrible sign. Granato is a good coach who seems to be facing a clear challenge: getting his team to tighten up in one end, at least a little, without sacrificing its identity. Given their other year-over-year improvements, it’s possible. It’s also necessary, especially in an Atlantic Division featuring a couple of other on-the-rise teams.
With Quinn out, Mittelstadt possibly starting the season on the second line and prospect Jiri Kulich likely still a work in progress, the lineup could wind up a bit top-heavy at times. The Athletic’s Matthew Fairburn in July projected Peyton Krebs to open up as the third-line center. Krebs improved as a defensive player last season at a solid cost to his offensive play-driving, which makes slotting him behind Thompson and Cozens an iffy proposition, although he’s still only 21.
The power play, which clicked at a top-10 success rate last season, also might be in for a regression. Only Edmonton’s history-making, typical-rules-don’t-apply unit scored more goals above expected per 60 minutes than the Sabres’ 1.7. Their team shooting percentage with the man advantage was 16.23, fourth in the league.
A recurring theme here has been “Buffalo has loads of offensive talent,” so it’d be unwise to dismiss a repeat performance out of hand. However, it did seem like teams started to figure out Buffalo’s power play in the second half — specifically, cover the tall guy with one of the best one-timers in the league. Thompson scored 5.9 goals per 60 on the power play going into the new year off of 2.5 expected goals per 60. From January onward he still scored on 25 percent of his shots, but he wasn’t getting the same looks, earning 10 fewer shots per 60 and one fewer expected goal per 60 which resulted in a drop to 3.5 goals per 60.
That’s still very good, just not nearly as earth-shattering. That meant fewer weapons taking more shots with much less effectiveness which manifested into significantly weaker team results. Up until January, the Sabres scored 10.6 goals/60 on the power play off of 7.4 expected goals/60. That dropped to 7.0 goals/60 off of 7.1 expected goals/60 afterward. That’s a tangible drop that could have a huge effect on Buffalo’s bottom line. The Sabres need their power play to be elite to make the playoffs.
On the blue line, there probably isn’t enough help for Dahlin and Power, though Mattias Samuelsson did put up a solid 14.8 percent entry denial rate last season per All Three Zones, best among Buffalo’s regular defensemen. He projects to be a solid complementary piece and makes sense as Dahlin’s long-term partner, but the results last season weren’t particularly good. Beyond that, despite the additions of former Boston Bruin Connor Clifton (slotted in as Power’s partner) and Erik Johnson (an Avalanche staple who’s now 35), they’re on track to be overextended in too many places.
All that makes it even harder to trust the Buffalo’s goaltending, arguably the team’s biggest weakness. We already know Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen aren’t the solution. If Devon Levi isn’t either, good luck.
### The best case
The Sabres build off last year’s momentum by maintaining a high level of offense and cleaning up play in their own zone. Thompson learns to defend, Dahlin brings more Norris-caliber play and Power takes a leap forward. Levi proves himself to be the goalie of the present and future. Buffalo makes the playoffs and the young core gains important experience.
### The worst case
The defense is a wreck and it drags down the Sabres’ offense. Levi is overwhelmed, which forces Buffalo to rely on unstable goaltending. The team takes a huge step back from last year and stays out of the playoff race, but doesn’t fall enough in the standings to gain a top pick.
### The bottom line
Everyone loves the Sabres. There probably isn’t a more fun team in the league. A playoff berth would be a fantastic feel-good story that one of the most enthusiastic cities in hockey truly deserves.
We’re not counting it out; there’s a huge amount of upside here. But a lot of internal progression needs to happen without the puck to make it more of a certainty.
Buffalo has improved by leaps and bounds over the last two seasons. It’s possible it’ll do the same this season. But a small step back spent learning to play the right way before taking off as a true Cup contender wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It’s not the unlikeliest either.
Dom as a Leafs fan dislikes the Sabres, so take his model with a grain of salt