have you ever thought to yourself “man, i love hockey, but i wish i could know the results of every game in a season before they happen”? i sure have. and with the new season starting tomorrow, i’m again left asking myself “what am i doing watching a sport i like when i could just know what will happen ahead of time?”
hi, i’m keego. you may know me from such hits as “82-0”, “56-0”, “82-0”, and “82-0”. if you don’t, well then hi, i’m keego, and i have a history of confidently predicting the red wings’ season records with a level of accuracy that some might describe as “less than adequate”. i’ve been right (read: wrong) so many times before that i felt like upping the difficulty, so i set out to find an objective way to predict the entire season – one that could be used by the common man.
now, a smart person would do something like compare the wings and their opponents’ SRS or other stats to determine detroit’s likeliness of beating that particular group of players with the current roster. i, however, am not a smart person, so i chose to look to the past for answers. obviously the roster this season is different than the last, as is the case in sports, so i had to isolate the one thing that remained constant year-over-year, something that [everyone can agree on](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eECjjLNAOd4) – the concept of a week. as a firm believer in the importance of needlessly esoteric statistics, i can say with confidence that there is no variable with more sway over the results of a game than what day of the week that contest is taking place on.
~~——————-~~
**METHODOLOGY**
~~——————-~~
i started by manually charting every single regular+postseason game the wings have played in the 21st century in excel, which turned out to be 1959 games. you may wonder why i *had* to do it by hand, and that’s fair, but remember the old adage: “boss makes a dollar, i make a dime. that’s why i meticulously chart and analyze nearly two thousand red wings games in search of a pattern that likely isn’t there on company time”. also, i needed to convert the data to a format that i could more easily work with. if you’re worried that my manual transcription from multiple sources may have introduced errors in the data, relax – i only missed *three* games the first time around (more on that in a bit).
that out of the way, i crunched the numbers and determined how likely the team would be to win on a given day. to my delight, the wings had winning records on 5/7 days, with only tuesday and sunday sporting <.500 win%. it was at this point that i thought about the concept of “home ice advantage” and i came to the horrible realization that i hadn’t marked whether the games were home or away. honestly, that was dumb of me. i should have known that the other thing that remains constant each year is the concept of home and away jerseys. could ya do me a solid and just pretend i said there were *two* constants in the intro? thanks man, i knew i could count on you.
anyways after a few hours of atoning for my past ignorance, which actually turned out to be a blessing in disguise since it made me realize i had missed three games, i had a sufficiently robust data set that i could apply to this upcoming season. i decided the best way was to use a random number generator with the output corresponding to a range of values for each outcome. in the event it spat out a tie, i ran a second round based on their performance in shootouts that day. here’s the ranges i used for home games:
| Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday
—|—|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-
Total GP | 91 | 142 | 147 | 157 | 147 | 172 | 121
W | 1-40 | 1-62 | 1-73 | 1-80 | 1-72 | 1-87 | 1-45
OTW | 41-47 | 63-68 | 74-86 | 81-84 | 73-83 | 88-98 | 46-55
SOW | 48-50 | 69-75 | 87-92 | 85-88 | 84-90 | 99-102 | 56-57
T* | 51 | 76-78 | 93-97 | 89-91 | 91-93 | 103 | 58-59
SOL | 52-54 | 79-86 | 98-101 | 92-101 | 94-101 | 104-111 | 60-67
OTL | 55-64 | 87-97 | 102-111 | 102-117 | 102-112 | 112-122 | 68-78
L | 65-91 | 98-142 | 112-147 | 118-157 | 113-147 | 123-172 | 79-121
*if Tied
| Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday
—|—|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-
Total T | 6 | 15 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 10
SOW | 1-3 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 1-2
SOL | 4-6 | 8-15 | 7-10 | 5-14 | 8-15 | 5-12 | 3-10
and here’s the ranges for away games:
| Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday
—|—|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-
Total GP | 91 | 155 | 103 | 156 | 101 | 259 | 117
W | 1-39 | 1-48 | 1-33 | 1-60 | 1-33 | 1-88 | 1-47
OTW | 40-44 | 49-54 | 34-43 | 61-71 | 34-40 | 89-105 | 48-57
SOW | 45-47 | 55-59 | 44-47 | 72-79 | 41-46 | 106-120 | 58-59
T* | 48-51 | 60-62 | 48-52 | 80-81 | 47-50 | 121-128 | 60-61
SOL | 52-54 | 63-68 | 53 | 82-84 | 51-53 | 129-143 | 62-64
OTL | 55-60 | 69-80 | 54-63 | 85-91 | 54-65 | 144-156 | 65-70
L | 61-91 | 81-155 | 64-103 | 92-156 | 66-101 | 157-259 | 71-117
*if Tied
| Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday
—|—|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-
Total T | 6 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 30 | 5
SOW | 1-3 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 1-8 | 1-6 | 1-15 | 1-2
SOL | 4-6 | 6-11 | 5 | 9-11 | 7-9 | 16-30 | 3-5
~~———–~~
**RESULTS**
~~———–~~
and now, the moment you’ve all been waiting for – an objectively correct prediction of the detroit red wings’ entire 23-24 regular season:
Game | Date | Day | Opp | RNG Roll(s) | Result | Reality
—|—|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-
1 | 10/12/23 | Thursday | @NJD | 8/156 | W | –
2 | 10/14/23 | Saturday | TBL | 131/172 | L | –
3 | 10/16/23 | Monday | @CBJ | 16/91 | W| –
4 | 10/18/23 | Wednesday | PIT | 137/147 | L | –
5 | 10/21/23 | Saturday | @OTT | 92/259 | OTW | –
6 | 10/22/23 | Sunday | CGY | 117/121 | L | –
7 | 10/24/23 | Tuesday | SEA | 78/142, 11/15 | SOL | –
8 | 10/26/23 | Thursday | WPG | 87/157 | SOW | –
9 | 10/28/23 | Saturday | @BOS | 39/259 | W | –
10 | 10/30/23 | Monday | @NYI | 18/91 | W | –
11 | 11/2/23 | Thursday | FLA | 135/157 | L | –
12 | 11/4/23 | Saturday | BOS | 53/172 | W | –
13 | 11/7/23 | Tuesday | @NYR | 130/155 | L | –
14 | 11/9/23 | Thursday | MTL | 39/157 | W | –
15 | 11/11/23 | Saturday | CBJ | 110/172 | SOL | –
16 | 11/16/23 | Thursday | @OTT | 83/156 | SOL | –
17 | 11/17/23 | Friday | TOR | 48/147 | W | –
18 | 11/22/23 | Wednesday | NJD | 8/147 | W | –
19 | 11/24/23 | Friday | @BOS | 16/101 | W | –
20 | 11/26/23 | Sunday | MIN | 88/121 | L | –
21 | 11/29/23 | Wednesday | @NYR | 80/103 | L | –
22 | 11/30/23 | Thursday | CHI | 46/157 | W | –
23 | 12/2/23 | Saturday | @MTL | 219/259 | L | –
24 | 12/5/23 | Tuesday | @BUF | 32/155 | W | –
25 | 12/7/23 | Thursday | SJS | 94/157 | SOL | –
26 | 12/9/23 | Saturday | OTT | 59/157 | W | –
27 | 12/11/23 | Monday | @DAL | 41/91 | OTW | –
28 | 12/12/23 | Tuesday | @STL | 8/155 | W | –
29 | 12/14/23 | Thursday | CAR | 52/157 | W | –
30 | 12/16/23 | Saturday | @PHI | 181/259 | L | –
31 | 12/18/23 | Monday | ANA | 5/91 | W | –
32 | 12/20/23 | Wednesday | @WPG | 32/103 | W | –
33 | 12/22/23 | Friday | PHI | 29/147 | W | –
34 | 12/23/23 | Saturday | @NJD | 54/259 | W | –
35 | 12/27/23 | Wednesday | @MIN | 74/103 | L | –
36 | 12/29/23 | Friday | NSH | 122/147 | L | –
37 | 12/31/23 | Sunday | BOS | 97/121 | L | –
38 | 1/2/24 | Tuesday | @SJS | 35/155 | W | –
39 | 1/4/24 | Thursday | @LAK | 16/156 | W | –
40 | 1/7/24 | Sunday | @ANA | 44/117 | W | –
41 | 1/11/24 | Thursday | EDM | 129/157 | L | –
42 | 1/13/24 | Saturday | LAK | 111/172 | SOL | –
43 | 1/14/24 | Sunday | @TOR | 4/117 | W | –
44 | 1/17/24 | Wednesday | @FLA | 32/103 | W | –
45 | 1/19/24 | Friday | @CAR | 69/101 | L | –
46 | 1/21/24 | Sunday | TBL | 65/121 | SOL | –
47 | 1/23/24 | Tuesday | DAL | 119/142 | L | –
48 | 1/25/24 | Thursday | PHI | 66/157 | W | –
49 | 1/27/24 | Saturday | VGK | 116/172 | OTL | –
50 | 1/31/24 | Wednesday | OTT | 104/147 | OTL | –
51 | 2/10/24 | Saturday | VAN | 138/172 | L | –
52 | 2/13/24 | Tuesday | @EDM | 37/155 | W | –
53 | 2/15/24 | Thursday | @VAN | 98/156 | L | –
54 | 2/17/24 | Saturday | @CGY | 241/259 | L | –
55 | 2/19/24 | Monday | @SEA | 51/91, 4/6 | SOL | –
56 | 2/22/24 | Thursday | COL | 139/157 | L | –
57 | 2/24/24 | Saturday | STL | 64/172 | W | –
58 | 2/25/24 | Sunday | @CHI | 65/117 | OTL | –
59 | 2/27/24 | Tuesday | WSH | 130/142 | L | –
60 | 2/29/24 | Thursday | NYI | 149/157 | L | –
61 | 3/2/24 | Saturday | FLA | 75/172 | W | –
62 | 3/6/24 | Wednesday | @COL | 90/103 | L | –
63 | 3/8/24 | Friday | @ARI | 13/101 | W | –
64 | 3/9/24 | Saturday | @VGK | 32/259 | W | –
65 | 3/12/24 | Tuesday | @BUF | 59/155 | SOW | –
66 | 3/14/24 | Thursday | ARI | 51/157 | W | –
67 | 3/16/24 | Saturday | BUF | 38/172 | W | –
68 | 3/17/24 | Sunday | @PIT | 87/117 | L | –
69 | 3/19/24 | Tuesday | CBJ | 71/142 | SOW | –
70 | 3/21/24 | Thursday | NYI | 85/157 | SOW | –
71 | 3/23/24 | Saturday | @NSH | 45/259 | W | –
72 | 3/26/24 | Tuesday | @WSH | 108/155 | L | –
73 | 3/28/24 | Thursday | @CAR | 82/156 | SOL | –
74 | 3/30/24 | Saturday | @FLA | 119/259 | SOW | –
75 | 4/1/24 | Monday | @TBL | 27/91 | W | –
76 | 4/5/24 | Friday | NYR | 94/147 | SOL | –
77 | 4/7/24 | Sunday | BUF | 71/121 | OTL | –
78 | 4/9/24 | Tuesday | WSH | 64/142 | OTW | –
79 | 4/11/24 | Thursday | @PIT | 145/156 | L | –
80 | 4/13/24 | Saturday | @TOR | 73/259 | W | –
81 | 4/15/24 | Monday | MTL | 90/91 | L | –
82 | 4/16/24 | Tuesday | @MTL | 37/155 | W | –
**RECORD: 43-26-13, 99Pts**
i’m a little skeptical that the wings will be going to the shootout 14 times (also kinda crazy that the only two times it spat out a tie were both the seattle games), but i can’t argue with the math here – detroit will be finishing with a winning record for the first time since the 14-15 season. on to the playoffs, right?
well, i’ve got good news and bad news. the bad news is that, in the six full seasons since then (excluding 19-20 and 20-21 for simplicity’s sake), only six of the 48 eastern conference playoff spots went to teams with 43 or fewer wins – a one in eight chance, basically. the good news is that data journalism allows us to misuse numbers to fit our agenda. a one in eight chance sounds slim until you realize there are eight eastern conference playoff spots, meaning one of those playoff spots will belong to a team with 43 wins or fewer. it’s simple statistics, really. from there, we just need to determine how likely the wings are to be that team. of those six instances, only one was detroit. one in six… considering they’ll likely be battling with five other teams for that final spot, i don’t like those odds.
let’s ignore that and look at the points. over those same six seasons, 14 teams made the playoffs with 99 points or fewer – that’s more than double our one-in-eight threshold. pretty good, but let’s take it further. no eastern conference team in those six seasons missed the playoffs after finishing with at least 99 points. you heard it here first, folks:
**THE DETROIT RED WINGS ARE MAKING THE PLAYOFFS**
by KeegoTheWise
12 Comments
Can you do my math homework
Your conclusion is exactly what I wanted to hear so I will not question your methods
Shame that the two games i got tickets for are both losses. Might as well sell then now
Your approach is much better than most NHL analysts. They keep picking Buffalo and Ottawa but forgetting that historically neither of those teams have ever been any good (minus those few Hasek years in Buffalo). If you did this math on those teams then we definitely make the playoffs over them as well.
That’s a whole lotta words. Too bad I ain’t gonna read em
Fully expected a long math equation that proves the red wings are going 82-0-0
Can you place a bet on this? 43-26-13?
I bet someone would make this bet for you. You should do it.
Keego, this is way too pessimistic of a view from you. I can’t handle anything less than “82-0”
This doesn’t seem right but I don’t know enough about math to dispute it, ergo it must be correct.
Can’t argue with good or bad science, so I’ll accept this meticulously prepared prediction.
Who needs A.I. when we have Keego
I’ve skimmed the thread in about 45 seconds and I can unequivocally confirm that Keego is correct and the math is solid.